Will America leave its interests to its competitors in Iraq?
Will America leave its interests to its competitors in Iraq?
2-27-2024
Many of those who follow the events in Iraq do not differ in their view of the future political reality of this country, despite the multiplicity of possibilities emerging from different visions, as a result of the different goals, the diversity of interests, and the extent of the damage or benefits that the events and repercussions resulting from the American withdrawal from Iraq will have on the Iraqi political system from On the one hand, and on the regional and global powers seeking to fill the vacuum on the other hand.
Based on this context, it seems clear that the objectives of the US-Iraqi bilateral dialogue sessions on ending the mission of the international coalition are to work on finding the appropriate formula for the nature of the future US relationship with Iraq, after the Iraqi side expressed, through the Prime Minister’s statements, a serious desire to develop this relationship. The relationship, to include in addition to the security aspect files, the activation of other economic files and fields, given that Iraq possesses large economic resources, which gives it the ability and influence on the global energy market, not to mention the many opportunities and fields that this rich country provides for the work of American companies in various economic and service sectors. And urbanism.
According to reports and studies of international research institutes, the American administration is working to favor Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani, whom it has come to consider as the best alternative to lead Iraq, given his clear positions on his country’s relations with the American administration, and his declared desire for continued American consultation, as a result of Iraq’s continuing need to support the requirements and needs that it faces. She was not ready for the required level.
Between the reasons for this preference and the silence of American and Iraqi officials regarding the nature of the files being discussed in Iraq, the multiple positions and statements of American Ambassador Alina Romanowski revealed the nature of her diplomatic mission, which lies in the American administration’s keenness to expand the strategic framework agreement agreed upon between the United States and Iraq, including It goes beyond security to a comprehensive relationship that achieves results for the Iraqi people, which means, reading between the lines, acceptance of dealing with Iraqi forces capable of maintaining the American relationship that was chosen for Iraq, on the condition of ensuring the continuation of its country’s permanent interests in Iraq. In other words, the ruling parties at home accept the choice between wanting to deal with the permanent American presence, even if its nature differs, or rejecting its presence politically and militarily.
The Iraqi government’s acceptance of continuing to deal with some form of US presence with an Iranian green light is consistent with the US’s highest vital goals in the Middle East.
In this volatile and changing regional and global context, initial indications appear of the Iraqi side participating in the special US-Iraqi bilateral dialogue sessions agreeing on the first option, if we take into consideration the nature of the official Iraqi discourse and its relationship to the reasons for this preference, and the moral support that Washington is giving to the existing political system in Iraq. The government has a coordinating framework in Baghdad, despite the Iranian continued setting of conditions in this country’s relationship with others, and working to bend them to serve Tehran’s interests. This explains the reasons for the recent Iranian intervention to stop the armed factions directing further strikes against the United States at the present time and the importance of its impact on the course of the dialogue.
From here, it has become clear that what drives Iran to put pressure on these militias is the desire to continue the American-Iraqi talks to find an Iraqi-American consensus that guarantees the survival of its interests and preserves its vital goals. Also, allowing the diplomacy of its friends and allies to succeed is the best option, for the continuation of a permanent sectarian political presence, which ensures that its trade balance is tipped in favor of its trade balance in the areas of gas export and religious tourism, and thus keeps it away from entering into a direct conflict with the superpower, which has the potential to destabilize the regime, given the disparity in The size of the military capabilities is not comparable to the capabilities of the United States.
On the other hand, there is no doubt that the Iraqi government’s acceptance of continuing to deal with some form of American presence with an Iranian green light is in line with the highest vital goals of the United States in the Middle East, which are ensuring the passage of oil to the global market, preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, and then curbing the Russian and Chinese poles. And preventing them from filling all the vacuum, thus preserving its position as a superpower, and getting out of the gray box between the context of monopoly or participation and dealing with the new reality of a multipolar world, in a way that ensures its survival and does not leave the vacuum completely to facilitate its filling by China, Russia, or Iran with the naivety that some astrologers imagine. .
There is no doubt that what is going on and being planned in the bilateral talks aimed at ending the American presence in Iraq, and the binding conditions for implementing the terms of the agreement in the future, will take into account, above all, the interests of the strong party, and at the expense of the weak party, if we take into account the declared American goals, which are represented by the desire To control the global oil economy, and its keenness to defend its allies in the region, even if the ruling administrations differ.
Approving the end of the American presence in Iraq in the form drawn up behind the scenes in the event that both parties agree to its terms, does not mean, in any case, an end to the American strategic political and economic influence in Iraq, which, if it happens, may paint an inappropriate picture that makes it appear as a fugitive who preferred to get out of the quagmire. The Iraqi government, after failing to establish and support an independent democratic system that protects the interests of all Iraqis.
This picture may be an appropriate opportunity for Washington’s competitors, such as Russia and China, to win over the region’s regimes, in the event that they withdraw, after failing to win the minds and hearts of the Arab world, which may lead to a decline in its influence and push it to recalculate its calculations on a complex and turbulent regional and international chessboard by committing to a status quo. Special restrictions as a condition for coming up with a solution to leave Iraq, such as fears of the return of ISIS and concern for protecting the Kurds in Syria and Iraq. This explains the possibilities for American and Iraqi officials to agree on what is being discussed in the ongoing American bilateral dialogue sessions with the political regime in Iraq.
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