What awaits Iraq after the resumption of the “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran?

What awaits Iraq after the resumption of the “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran?

2025-02-05 05:52

What awaits Iraq after the resumption of the maximum pressure campaign on IranShafaq News/ A former Iranian diplomat confirmed that the resumption of the “maximum pressure” campaign by US President Donald Trump on his country is not new, but rather an extension of sanctions and a siege that have been in place for 45 years. Tehran has largely succeeded in circumventing many of these sanctions. As for “reducing Iranian oil exports to zero,” this is “impossible,” he said, because sales “are being made secretly through fictitious companies,” at a time when there are countries that do not abide by US sanctions, most notably Russia and China.

Observers believe that the US sanctions on Iran will not be limited to it alone, but will affect neighboring countries, including Iraq, which is one of the most important economic gateways for Iran. However, the aim of these sanctions may be to push Iran to go to the negotiating table more than to exacerbate the situation, because their regional repercussions and even their implementation by regional countries are not easy.

The latest of these sanctions was Trump’s cancellation, on Wednesday, of the exemption granted to Iraq to import electricity and gas from Iran, as part of the new package of sanctions on Tehran.

The memorandum signed by Trump, which aims to exert maximum pressure on Iran, included “taking immediate steps, in coordination with the Secretary of the Treasury and other relevant agencies, to ensure that the Iraqi financial system is not used by Iran to evade or circumvent sanctions, and that the Gulf States are not used as shipping points to evade sanctions.”

For many years, Iraq has relied on importing electricity and gas from Iran, especially during the peak of summer, and thus relies on the ongoing American exemptions, which are issued more than once each year.

Trump signed a presidential decree on Tuesday evening to re-impose the policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran, and he made it clear that Iran is very close to possessing a nuclear weapon and that the United States has the right to prevent the sale of Iranian oil to other countries.

The presidential decree directs the US Treasury Department to impose “maximum economic pressure” on Iran through sanctions designed to cripple the country’s oil exports, and in his memorandum, he instructs the Treasury and State Departments to implement a campaign “aimed at reducing Iran’s oil exports to zero.”

Sanctions circumvention through “shell companies”

Commenting on this, former Iranian diplomat, Sayyed Hadi Sayyed Afghahi, said, “Trump’s statements regarding Iran are not new. For 45 years, there have been American threats, sanctions, sieges, and proxy wars. Iran has become accustomed to these and learned how to deal with them, especially during Trump’s first presidential term, when Iran faced (harsh sanctions), as Trump used to call them, and Tehran largely succeeded in circumventing many of these sanctions.”

Afqahi added to Shafaq News Agency, “Iran also sought to find alternative opportunities to compensate for the losses, for example in Iran’s membership in the BRICS transcontinental economic group, the Shanghai Economic Security Group, as well as in the Eurasian market and activating the ECO economic organization that Iran established during the Shah’s era with Pakistani and Turkish participation.”

He continued, “Therefore, we do not take Trump’s threats seriously, but we will deal with them if he decides to activate them and impose sanctions, as he promised to deprive Iran of selling oil and bring Iranian oil sales to zero, and this is impossible, because there are countries that do not abide by American sanctions and threats, most notably Russia and China.”

Afqahi explains that “China is the first customer for buying Iranian oil, and many countries also buy Iranian oil secretly, away from American eyes, through fake companies.”

Trump’s meeting with Pezeshkian is a ‘red line’

Regarding Trump’s announcement of his readiness to meet with his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian, the former Iranian diplomat said, “Trump’s talk about the possibility of starting negotiations between Iran and America, which may rise to the level of a summit between Trump and Pezeshkian, is ironic, because there is a red line that Iran has adhered to, whether in the time of Khomeini or in the time of Khamenei, who considers negotiating with America to be a national betrayal and a red line, and he said that (whoever promotes support for America domestically will be crushed by the Iranian people).”

Afqahi added, “But there is a line leaning towards the reformists that wants these negotiations and believes that by resolving the problem between Iran and America, the sanctions will be lifted. But this is not true, because Iran has tested all American presidents over the course of 45 years, whether Republican or Democrat. Therefore, the talk of the meeting between Trump and Pezeshkian is a test of the waters.”

He points out that “this does not prevent opening an indirect door to negotiations with America regarding the nuclear file only, and on Iranian terms, and not according to the terms of Trump, who prohibits Iran from using peaceful nuclear technology and wants to stop the enrichment process to prevent nuclear technology, which has many benefits in various fields, including scientific, medical, agricultural, industrial, and others.”

Trump’s previous maximum pressure policy sought to impose strong sanctions to strangle Iran’s economy and force the country to negotiate a deal that would hamper its nuclear and missile programs.

Trump pushed Iranian oil exports to near zero during part of his first term after reimposing sanctions, but they have risen again under Biden as Iran has managed to circumvent the sanctions.

Trump has accused his Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden, of failing to impose tough sanctions on Iranian oil exports, which Trump says has emboldened Tehran and allowed it to sell oil to fund its nuclear weapons program and militant groups in the Middle East.

The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, confirmed in December 2024 that Iran was accelerating its uranium enrichment process to a purity of 60%, which is close to the level needed to manufacture nuclear weapons, which is approximately 90%, according to Reuters. Tehran has denied its desire to manufacture a nuclear weapon more than once.

Western signatories to the 2015 nuclear deal will lose the ability to take that action on October 18, when a 2015 UN resolution lifting sanctions on Tehran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear programme expires.

Negative effects on Iraq

For his part, political analyst Abbas Al-Jubouri believes that “imposing an economic blockade on Iran will affect neighboring countries, including Iraq, which shares a 1,450-km border with it, and a trade exchange exceeding $13 billion annually, and these will be affected if Iranian-American relations become tense.”

Al-Jubouri added to Shafaq News Agency, “Iraq imports gas from Iran with American approval, and when Iraq paid the amounts for the gas, America did not allow it, considering that the Iraqi money goes to the American Federal Bank, so while it allowed Iraq to import Iranian gas, it did not allow it to pay its money, and in this case Iraq is negatively affected, because the Iranian companies are demanding the gas amounts and this is their right, but the intransigence of the American administration and its seizure of Iraqi resources through Chapter Seven and the Iraqi money going to the Federal Bank, negatively affected the situation in Iraq.”

Regarding the dialogue between Tehran and Washington, Al-Jubouri believes that “when America wants to open a dialogue with Iran, this dialogue must include a kind of dignity and wisdom, not a dialogue of humiliation, because countries are independent and have values ​​and principles, and for this reason the dialogue must be within diplomatic contexts.”

Sanctions are a bargaining chip

For his part, Jordanian political analyst and researcher in international relations, Hazem Ayyad, explains that “the goal of the American sanctions is to exacerbate the internal economic situation in Iran, by closing the doors through which the Iranian economy breathes, whether from Iraq and the exceptions that were provided to it, or through the economic relations that Iran practices with a number of companies in India, Asia and different parts of the world.”

Ayyad confirmed to Shafaq News Agency, “Iraq is one of the most important economic gateways for Iran, so the impact of these sanctions will not be limited to Iran, but will extend to the region and countries that have strong economic relations with Iran, especially Iraq, which will affect oil prices. This required the US administration to pressure Saudi Arabia to reduce oil prices and pump larger quantities into the global market in order to pressure Iran and fill the gap resulting from its removal from the market, as well as to pressure Russia.”

He continued, “Therefore, there is a connection regarding the economic file, and these sanctions will not succeed without exerting pressure on the countries surrounding Iran and even the oil countries to bridge the gap, and thus these sanctions will have repercussions in the region.”

Ayyad adds, “But I believe that the sanctions card that Trump is using is aimed at pushing Iran to go to the negotiating table more than it is a desire to exacerbate the situation because its regional repercussions are not easy for countries, as Trump wants Iran to sit at the negotiating table and this card is to be waved around during the negotiations.”

“This reinforces Trump’s announcement of his desire to meet the Iranian president in the next phase, which indicates that it is more of a negotiating card than a card that the Trump administration wants to activate, because it has high costs and requires the cooperation of regional countries such as Iraq and India, as well as OPEC countries and OPEC Plus, in which Saudi Arabia and the UAE have an important share and position. These countries do not want to be part of this American policy in the next phase, so it is not easy for America to move forward with this policy, but rather it is a card to sit at the negotiating table,” according to his analysis.

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