Al-Kadhimi’s return to Iraq: a political deal or a legal gamble?
Al-Kadhimi’s return to Iraq: a political deal or a legal gamble?
2-27-2025
Information / Baghdad..
The return of former Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi to Baghdad on February 25, 2025, sparked widespread controversy and questions about the motives and timing of this move, especially with the approach of the parliamentary elections scheduled for next October.
Motives for the return
1. Preparing for the upcoming elections
Al-Kadhimi’s return comes in the context of preparations for the parliamentary elections, as reports indicate his intention to resume his political activity and form new alliances, which may affect the current political balances.
2. Responding to political calls
Sources reported that Al-Kadhimi’s return came based on calls from current political leaders, under the pretext of benefiting from his experience and international relations to confront the economic and political challenges facing Iraq.
Arrest warrants
In August 2023, the Iraqi judiciary issued arrest warrants against a number of Al-Kadhimi’s assistants, including his office director, Raed Juhi, and his advisor, Mashreq Abbas, on charges related to the “theft of the century” case, which relates to the embezzlement of $2.5 billion from tax deposits.
Al-Kadhimi’s Legal Position
Despite the persecution of his aides, no arrest warrants have been issued against Al-Kadhimi himself so far. However, he faces political pressure and the possibility of legal cases being opened against him, especially with his return to the political arena.
Guarantees and political balances
Potential guarantees
Reports indicate that Al-Kadhimi’s return may be the result of guarantees provided to him by some political forces, with the aim of achieving certain balances in the Iraqi political scene, especially with the current regional and international tensions.
Electoral balances
As the elections approach, political forces seek to strengthen their positions, and Al-Kadhimi’s return may be part of a strategy by some parties to reshape alliances and ensure a balance of power in the next parliament.
Future political ambitions
A second term?
Despite the challenges and accusations, Al-Kadhimi may seek a second term, and this depends on his ability to form alliances and overcome the legal and political obstacles that may stand in his way.
Is Al-Sudani upset with Al-Kadhimi’s return to Iraq?
As of February 27, 2025, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani has not issued any public statement expressing his displeasure or welcoming the return of his predecessor, Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, to Baghdad. However, media reports indicate that Al-Kadhimi intends to hold meetings with a number of political leaders, including a possible meeting with Al-Sudani.
In the absence of official statements from Al-Sudani regarding Al-Kadhimi’s return, his position remains unclear, which opens the door to analysis and speculation about the nature of the relationship between the two men and its impact on the Iraqi political scene.
Mustafa Al-Kadhimi’s return to Baghdad remains complex political and legal dimensions, and the features of this step and its impact on the Iraqi political scene will become clearer with the passage of time and the approach of the election date.
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