Iraqi “three” scenarios to survive the current crisis or a “civil war”

Iraqi “three” scenarios to survive the current crisis or a “civil war”

2022-08-06 08:33

Iraqi three scenarios to survive the current crisis or a civil warShafaq News/ The American “Stratfor” website considered, on Saturday, that the ongoing competition between Shiite factions is preventing the formation of a new Iraqi government, while political paralysis risks turning into a more violent and deeper conflict, which will reduce Baghdad’s limited ability to solve its economic crises. numerous, reduce social unrest.

The “Stratfor” report, which is close to the US intelligence complex, which was translated by Shafaq News Agency, reviewed the recent events in Iraq, including the storming of the Sadrist movement’s supporters into the parliament building, their demand for new elections and political reforms, and their opponents organizing counter-demonstrations in the coordinating framework, and Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi’s call to A national dialogue between the two parties to alleviate the crisis.

The report considered; “The current confrontation represents an escalation in the power struggle that has been going on for months to form a government, and it highlights the enormous challenge of amending the political quota system in Iraq.”

dangers of political violence

While the American report considered that al-Sadr apparently decided to “inflame the dispute a little before Ashura, with the escalation of feelings among his loyal followers, with the aim of boosting their numbers during the sit-in in Parliament,” it concluded that there are four ways forward to get out of the current stalemate, and they all carry With it the dangers of political violence.

He explained that Al-Kazemi’s government will try to persuade the competing parties to join the political dialogue he proposed with the aim of preventing violence, including violent demonstrations, or limited confrontations by militias, or according to the most extreme scenario, represented by the outbreak of civil war.

The report then identified the scenarios arranged in descending order of probability, indicating that Iraq could witness them:

Long political paralysis between Shiite opponents

In this scenario, the dispute between the Sadrists and the coordination framework will continue for weeks and possibly months, impeding the election of a new president and disrupting policymaking.

The report considered that this situation may provide opportunities for some other parties in the negotiation process, including the Sunni and Kurdish leaderships, to propose coalitions that may be satisfactory to both the Sadrists and the coordination framework.

He added that it is possible for the national dialogue to take place within this scenario, but with the participation of the two parties only on a very superficial level, and therefore it is unlikely that this scenario will lead to a systematic change.

External intervention to reduce the crisis

The report stated that if an external power decides to intervene, this scenario may achieve the possibility of seeing a more rapid solution, adding that Iran is the main foreign player that enjoys influence given that the main players are two Shiite blocs.

He added that Tehran is also continuing its regular dialogue with Iraqi officials, especially militia leaders funded and trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, such as “Kataeb Hezbollah” and “Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq.”

The report considered that Tehran could send officials to try to negotiate with its allies within the coordination framework, which might help ease the impasse in case the Iranians view the current situation as harming their interests, and decide to live with the results of the October 2021 elections as being better than gambling in the elections. A new one that could lead to Iran losing its influence.

The report added that the United States and other Western governments enjoy great influence in Baghdad thanks to their economic and security support for the federal authorities, adding that these ties lie mainly with Sunni and Christian parties, more than their association with national leaders such as Sadr, who rejects Western influence or Iranian-leaning leaders Knorri Al-Maliki, which means that Washington lacks much possibility to have an influence in the current clash.

Agreement to organize new elections

The report stated that such a scenario may lead to confusion in the preparation of the Sadrist movement’s deputies versus the parliament’s coordination framework deputies, while the Sadrists demand new elections in the hope that they will obtain the majority needed to choose a new president without the need to form an alliance.

The report added; In spite of this, of course, the outcome of the elections is uncertain, and in any case, the parliament must initially agree to hold these new elections.

A new civil war

The US report considered that this worst-case scenario remains the least likely at the present time, adding that such a conflict may be represented by the outbreak of Shiite-Shiite fighting, as some Shiite parties have armed militias and followers ready to take to the streets, which may provoke great violence among them.

However, the report stressed that the Sadrists and the coordinating framework seem so far not interested in igniting such a violent conflict, for their fear of angering public opinion and the elite, which will consequently reduce their political influence.

The report concluded by saying that regardless of the scenario that will materialize, the deep structural economic problems in Iraq will remain, leaving the factors that drive the unrest in their place, despite the high oil prices that benefit the Iraqi economy.

He added that in the absence of a permanent government to implement the policies, the country will not be able to effectively address the economic problems experienced by Iraqis in their various social classes, in addition to the chronic shortage of water and electricity, adding that this will lead to keeping the risks of social unrest high. Regardless of how current tensions develop among Shiite ranks.