5-2-2012, GURU GUESSES!!
5/2/2012 Scooter I think Iraq had a lot to accomplish per the list of items set forth by the World Bank and IMF before the restructuring could occur. They’ve missed the last three years of deadlines but they’re getting there slowly…after reviewing the world bank requirements recently published that list was very long they probably have a lot of those items completed. My standing has always been they aren’t going to change the structure or value of anything until the balance sheets of the two banks [the two largest state owned banks] are correctly valued. In Iraq’s case, they appear to be going down the traditional road of both actions the RD and the RV see in 2009 and 2010 Iraq came out with a new CPI consumer price index well they haven’t been able to really deploy it because of the several reasons one being that the structural changes have never occured…now with that said — every country is unique in itself whenever they make structural changes like this in Iraq’s case they will deploy both actions methodically at the same time. In fact, just my opinion, I think they will see multiple hits to the value of the dinar over a period of 0 – 24 months.
5/2/2012 Doc We ask the question whether you would take a straight RV of 1 cent or a three 0 LOP and RV of $10? Before you go crazy with your calculators we’ll tell you these are exactly the same in cost to Iraq and return to dinar holders. In both cases 1 million dinar are worth $10,000. The only way we see the rumored high rates actually happening is with this LOP/RV scenario. However, all news releases (and our opinion) continue to support a straight RV of up to $1 with a possible scenario of something less than $1 with a stepped progression to $1 in the term. Reports continue to emphasis that the USD is the currency of choice. Only when the dinar is valued slightly above $1 will this change.