Iraq fights for its oil reserves: A battle within OPEC+ to regain its market share.
Iraq fights for its oil reserves: A battle within OPEC+ to regain its market share.
7-18-2026
Information / Report…
Iraq is waging one of its most sensitive economic battles within the OPEC+ alliance, attempting to redefine its production quota to reflect its vast oil potential. This comes after years of adhering to production restrictions that officials and experts say have deprived Baghdad of significant revenues and directly impacted the general budget and development plans.
These moves are taking place amidst rapidly changing regional and international circumstances, most notably the volatility of energy markets and rising oil prices, in addition to the losses Iraq has incurred due to regional security tensions and the temporary disruption of oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. This has strengthened Iraqi demands for a review of the production ceiling set within the alliance.
A diplomatic move to ensure fairness for Iraq:
Political analyst and economic researcher Ali Al-Mayahi believes that Baghdad has chosen the path of negotiation within OPEC+ instead of escalation, aiming to secure a fair increase in its production quota without jeopardizing its membership or commitments within the organization.
Al-Mayahi told Al-Maalomah that “the government is taking deliberate steps within the organization to secure a fair increase without resorting to withdrawal,” explaining that “Iraq is a founding member of OPEC and is committed to its historical rights within the organization.”
He added that “the losses Iraq has incurred due to regional developments and the impact on its oil exports necessitate granting Baghdad an exception that takes into account its economic circumstances, in addition to increasing its production quota to cover the financial deficit and support reconstruction projects.” In a development described by experts as a turning point in the matter, oil expert Hamza al-Jawahiri revealed that Iraq’s request to increase its production and export quota has been referred to an independent international consulting firm, which will reassess Iraq’s entitlement to the quota according to technical and legal criteria.
Al-Jawahiri explained to Al-Maalomah that “OPEC has referred Iraq’s request to a neutral consulting body outside the organization to reassess Iraq’s actual production quota.”
He emphasized that “Iraq has suffered clear injustice in recent years, as most of the exceptional production increases went to other countries, primarily Saudi Arabia and the UAE.” According to Al-Jawahiri, the Iraqi case rests on four main pillars that bolster Baghdad’s right to increase its production.
The first pillar is Iraq’s possession of the world’s second-largest oil reserves, making it eligible to produce larger quantities of oil than its current quota. The second pillar is the low cost of producing a barrel of Iraqi oil and the ease of extraction, a competitive advantage that gives Iraq greater capacity to meet global market demands. The third pillar lies in “historical injustice,” as Iraq has not received exceptional production increases in recent years, while other countries within the alliance have benefited from them. The fourth pillar relates to the losses Iraq has suffered as a result of regional instability and the disruption to its oil exports. According to Al-Jawahiri, this necessitates compensating for these losses by increasing Iraq’s production quota. The budget and development are at stake, and experts believe that any increase in Iraq’s quota within OPEC+ will directly impact public revenues, given the federal budget’s almost complete reliance on oil export earnings. Furthermore, raising the production ceiling will provide additional resources that can be directed towards infrastructure projects, improving services, and financing development plans, as well as reducing the financial pressures facing the government. Conversely, observers point out that Baghdad’s success in this endeavor will depend on its ability to convince the other members of the alliance that Iraq’s demands are based on technical and economic considerations, and not on a desire to disrupt the balance of the global oil market. As consultations within OPEC+ continue, Iraq awaits the results of the international consulting firm’s review, hoping that the years of restrictions will end with a fairer production quota that reflects the size of its oil reserves and its pivotal role in global energy markets, granting it greater scope to support its economy and finance reconstruction and development plans.
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