Hormuz repercussions: Iraq will lose 300 million barrels of oil production during 2026
Hormuz repercussions: Iraq will lose 300 million barrels of oil production during 2026
2026-07-19
Shafaq News – Baghdad
The Economic Observatory “Eco Iraq” announced on Sunday that Iraq extracted about 440.3 million barrels of oil during the first half of 2026, while the loss in production amounted to about 302.8 million barrels compared to the normal rate, as a result of the repercussions of the war in the region.
The observatory stated in a statement received by Shafaq News Agency that “oil production during the months of January and February was at its normal levels, with an average exceeding 4.1 million barrels per day, before it declined sharply during the following four months due to the war and the repercussions that affected export operations and oil production.”
He explained that “the average daily production was 4.097 million barrels in January, 4.140 million barrels in February, then it decreased to 1.906 million barrels in March, 1.633 million barrels in April, and reached its lowest level in May at 1.406 million barrels per day, before rising relatively in June to 1.525 million barrels per day.”
According to the observatory, the total production loss during the four months from March to June amounted to about 302.8 million barrels, compared to a normal production rate of 4.1 million barrels per day.
The observatory called for finding real solutions to protect oil production facilities and export routes, including developing alternative export outlets, such as the Sham Road project, to ensure the stability of oil production and reduce the impact of geopolitical crises on the Iraqi economy.
In this context, analysts in the energy and geopolitics sectors warned that Iraq would be among the countries most affected if the disruption to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz continued, given that oil flows from the Gulf remained at about 50% of pre-war levels, equivalent to a decrease of at least 10 million barrels per day from regional supplies.
Qamar Energy CEO Robin Mills, citing S&P Global, noted that continued attacks on oil tankers have brought shipping traffic back to low levels, with ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropping to just 16 ships per day.
He added that current alternatives, including pipelines, are still unable to compensate for lost supplies, while the proposed Iraqi options via Syria or Turkey remain projects that need two to four years to implement.
Mills explained that the continuation of the crisis will lead to a permanent rise in oil prices, but in return it will reduce the revenues of producing countries, including Iraq, the Gulf states and Iran, due to the decline in export volumes and the difficulty of shipments reaching global markets.
He also warned that continued unrest could accelerate the global shift towards renewable energy sources, electric vehicles and nuclear power, posing a long-term challenge for countries dependent on oil revenues.
shafaq.com
