After “weakening the axis”, an American vision expects an Iraqi figure to succeed Soleimani and Nasrallah

After “weakening the axis”, an American vision expects an Iraqi figure to succeed Soleimani and Nasrallah

2025-01-07 06:09

Shafaq News/ The American website “1945”, which specializes in national security affairs, stated that the upcoming Donald Trump administration, instead of withdrawing from Iraq, must work on investing in Iraqi sovereignty and nationalism to help Iraqis maintain the independence they deserve, contain the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and its proxy forces in Iraq, and prevent them from operating in the country as a base of operations, indicating that the leader of the Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq movement, Qais Khazali, may become the new leadership face of the “Axis of Resistance.”

The report, translated by Shafaq News Agency, indicated that after Iran shifted to a “defensive stance” following the developments in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, this makes Iraq, the main ally of the Islamic Republic, the only remaining member of the axis of resistance.

The report considered that “Iraqi politics, even Shiite politics, have always been more complex than many in Washington realize,” noting that “some Shiite bloc leaders, such as Badr Corps commander Hadi al-Amiri, are selling out Iraqi sovereignty to Iran, while many members of the Dawa Party are more skeptical of Iran, especially if they have spent years in exile in Britain rather than in Syria or Iran.”

The report continued, “While the US State Department later bet its hopes on the leader of the Shiite nationalist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, as a remedy for Iranian influence, diplomats misunderstood him, as al-Sadr’s opposition to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was not because he disagreed with the concept of the guardianship of the jurist, but because al-Sadr himself hoped to become the supreme leader.”

“The rapid fall of Iran’s proxies has renewed focus on Iraq,” the report said, explaining that “the real face of the resistance front had long been in the hands of the commander of the Iranian Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, who had a charismatic and well-known personality and was the de facto Iranian foreign minister. But after Trump ordered the strike that killed Soleimani outside Baghdad airport, the leadership of the resistance front did not go to Esmail Qaani, but to Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, who, whenever he spoke on television, almost all Lebanese would stop to listen to him.”

In comparison, the report said, “Naim Qassem, who assumed the leadership of Hezbollah, on the other hand, when he gave a speech on January 4, 2025, there was a disregard on the part of the employees and patrons of restaurants and cafes in one of the restaurants in the southern suburbs of Beirut.”

“With Nasrallah’s death, the leadership of the resistance front is likely to pass to an Iraqi, Qais Khazali, 50, the leader of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq movement, who, like Soleimani and Nasrallah, could do the same,” he added, recalling that “when Khazali was the commander of the Iranian-backed Special Groups in the early years of the invasion of Iraq, he was arrested by British forces and later released in exchange for the release of a hostage his group had taken.”

The report noted that “Khazali has now become the face of the resistance front, and he also realizes that this situation may mean his life is greatly shortened,” noting that “he disappeared several weeks ago, while some Iraqis speculate that he was injured or killed, although his spokesman later said that he was on a study tour in Iran and nothing more.”

The report indicated that “while former President Barack Obama continued to complete the withdrawal approved by former President George Bush from Iraq, until the rise of ISIS forced him to return to Iraq, it seems that Trump will be ready to continue the redeployment and withdrawal that President Biden began.”

But the report considered that “Biden’s decision to withdraw was not wise, as it was an expression of weakness in the face of the apparent strength of the Iranian resistance front,” adding that “with the departure of the Assad regime and the fall of Hezbollah, it is imperative for the United States to seek to contain the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and its proxy forces, and not allow it to treat Iraq as a satellite state or a base for operations.”

While the report acknowledged that “Trump’s emotional stance is against deploying American forces abroad, it considered that the United States does not need to do much,” explaining that “successive Iraqi leaders realize their weakness, and that Washington rebukes them about their relationship with Tehran, and therefore Baghdad is caught between a rock and a hard place.”

While the report stressed that Iraq cannot change its neighbors, just as Ukraine cannot change its neighborhood with Russia, it pointed out that Iraq’s leaders have carved out a space by playing the United States and Iran against each other, just like the space created by two repelling magnets. When you remove one magnet, the field of force collapses.”

Therefore, the report considered that if Trump orders US forces to withdraw from Iraq, he will give the green light for Iran’s dominance over Iraq, adding that such an “Iranian victory” will reverberate throughout the region.

“If Iraq is not a buffer zone, Iranian-backed militias will be able to launch drones and missiles from closer to Israel, shortening the time required to cross, and Iranian-backed interests could more easily destabilize Jordan, something the United States should not take for granted,” he continued.

The report concluded by saying, “Trump sees himself as a skilled strategist, but one of his first steps in the Middle East may be to undermine the chances of success of his initiative,” calling on the next US president to “not announce the result of the match in advance as long as the opponent is still deeply engaged in the confrontation.”

“Rather than retreating in the face of Iran’s declining power, we need to invest more actively in Iraqi sovereignty and nationalism to help Iraqis maintain the independence they deserve, and to keep figures like Qais Khazali in the Iranian exile they deserve after prioritizing Tehran’s interests over Baghdad’s,” he concluded.

shafaq.com