Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions 11-11-15
Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions 11-11-15
11-11-2015 Newshound Guru Enorrste Article: “The Central Bank of Iraq, announced issuing new cash paper category fifty thousand Dinars, includes writings in the Kurdish language…” Article quote and explanation from 5-24-2015: “this is a preliminary step to remove zeros from the Iraqi currency in the coming years”, adding that “these two categories will facilitate the process of deliberation of the Iraqi dinar exchange for hard currency.” The quote specifically says that both the introduction of the larger notes AND the removal of the three zeros notes after that will lead to the “deliberation of the Iraqi dinar exchange for hard currency.” In other words, the article’s writer is confirming my analysis that the introduction of the larger notes will lead Iraqis away from dollars since they will, after their introduction, have their own equivalent of a $50 and $100 bill, although worth just slightly less. This will reduce the demand for dollars, and probably quickly, since they won’t have to pay the 8% “vig” to get the dollars anymore. Reduction in dollar demand is the same as increasing demand for dinars, meaning the value of the dinar will begin to rise. At some point, “over the next years” and after they change the exchange rate regime to a float, the demand will reach levels where the three zero notes will be withdrawn due to their being worth too much to carry.
11-11-2015 Intel Guru Frank26 …you are NOT going to see the LAWS implemented…you are not going to see the Lower Denoms given to the Baby Banks…You are not going to [see] Dr. Shabibi take the helm of the CBI…you are NOT going to see Dr. Shabibi announce his monetary reform process option… UNTIL WHAT…Until MALIKI is walked to the gallows… So when will we see an increase in value…Dr. Shababi at the helm…the LD’s released to the banks…the laws implemented.
11-11-2015 Newshound Guru Revbo Article quote: “The Central Bank of Iraq, announced issuing new cash paper category fifty thousand Dinars, includes writings in the Kurdish language…” I know they had originally said these were going to be out this year, but all the news, for the past six months, has been that they would be out sometime in 2016, which, to me, always sounded like an indefinite postponement with no guarantee that they would ever be released, but certainly not before 2016. Now, the day after the Fed tells them to get on with monetary reform and they sign the MoU with the IMF, they put them out there. That can’t be coincidence.
11-11-2015 Intel/Newshound Guru Poppy3 MANY…STILL DOING THEIR BEST TO CALL FOR A FLOAT STARTING LOW THEN CLIMBING WITH A MARKET VALUE FLOAT. WELL…LOW VALUE DOESNT MAKE A BIT OF SENSE AND ABSOLUTELY DOESNT SOLVE ONE PROBLEM FOR IRAQ. LETS SEE…WOULD IT FUND THE BUDGET (NOT AT ALL)…DOES IT ATTAIN ANY LOANS (NOT AT ALL)…DOES IT LET THEM SELL BONDS (NOT AT ALL)…MAYBE PAY RETRIBUTION THEY HAVE PROMISED (NOT AT ALL). MAN I COULD GO ON BUT THATS MORE THAN ENOUGH REASONS THAT THE RATE WILL BE WHERE IT HAS BEEN STATED MANY TIME BY PEOPLE THAT MATTER..NEAR OR ABOVE $3.00 PLUS.
11-11-2015 Intel/Newshound Guru Poppy3 I EXPECT RV PRIOR TO CHRISTMAS AND POSSIBLY EVEN THIS MONTH. TIME WILL TELL BUT SECURITY IS NOW GREAT, THE GREEN ZONE IS ALL OPEN AND THEY HAVE FREEDOM TO MOVE ABOUT AT ANYTIME. THEY PROMISE TRADE INTERNATIONALLY BY 2016 WHICH REQUIRES A RATE AND FOR THAT RATE TO HAVE TIME TO MOVE THEM THROUGH THE WTO AND THAT TAKES A MINIMUM OF TIME… THIS IS WHY I THINK BEFORE THE END OF THIS MONTH IS NEEDED. THERE ARE SEVERAL OTHER THINGS… THEIR ISX IS TO OPEN INTERNATIONAL TRADE BY JAN 1. OTHER PROMISES ARE THEY WILL HAVE DAILY ELECTRIC SERVICE FOR ALL OF BAGDAD. THAT WAS SAID TO REQUIRE MILLIONS THROUGH THE BUDGET…THE CARDS ARE STACKED IN OUR FAVOR MORE THAN EVER.
11-11-2015 Intel/Newshound Guru tman23 [do you thing with the isssue of 50 k notes will hold up the rv?] They have said the “new” must come first as a prelude to the lifting of the 3 zeros from the currency notes…So end of Oct was 6 months after the removal of the 50 note (officially) from exchange. THAT 50 NOTE WAS GOING TO INTERFERE IN SOME WAY WITH THE 50,000 NOTE LESS 3 ZEROS. THERE IS AN EDUCATIONAL PROCESS THAT MUST GO ALONG WITH THE CHANGE. JUST KNOW THEY ARE CHANGING AND THE SALARY LADDER ALONG WITH PENSIONS AND SOCIAL SECURITY WITH CUTS AND CHANGES INDICATE A DIFFERENT RATE MAY BE APPLIED…BUT I AM CONFIDENT THE 3 ZEROS ARE NOT PART OF 2016.
11-11-2015 Newshound Guru mike Article: “The central bank issued banknotes fifty thousand Dinars category” I guess I’m waiting to actually see the note, I’ve looked at several sites for confirmation and haven’t found anything. I won’t be surprised to see a retraction by the CBI tomorrow, there’s no official attached to this news, like Keywords for instance. My position as to why they’re printing the notes is the same, they’re going to increase the money supply in Iraq if they print these bills. For me, it makes no sense to print larger notes to reduce note count, in fact, it’s never been done in the history of fiat currency. However, if they do remove the dinar from the peg and allow a currency that’s not in article VIII compliance to float, they’re going to need these larger notes when the value drops to 1500-1. Taking away the auctions is going to remove the biggest tool the CBI has to maintain the value and it’s going to cause the dinar to crater. How can I be so sure? Because I watched what happened in February when they capped the auctions at 75 million. It will be even worse with no auctions.
11-10-2015 Newshound Guru wmawhite …the US went through a delete the zeros, sort of, many years ago. The US treasury has and still has 10,000, 5,000 and 1,000 notes today that are legal tender…but why are they not used? The same thing will take place in Iraq. Again, delete the zeros, lift the zeros, pertains to the eventual drawing in off the streets, out of the market place the larger notes.
11-10-2015 Newshound Guru Enorrste The IMF itself made a statement about a month ago that Iraq would “enter the world market” at the beginning of 2016. We see now that the manner in which the IMF could guarantee such a statement is that they had worked out a deal to guarantee that what they said would come to pass. That guarantee is this “memorandum of understanding” between the IMF and the CBI. Considering that the IMF made its proclamation about Iraq “entering the world market” a month ago, it seems to me that this memorandum of understanding is actually a much more powerful document than just an “understanding.”
11-10-2015 Newshound Guru Enorrste In other words, it seems to me that the IMF has been given the helm of the CBI and that from this point through to the implementation of the float it will be the IMF that is determining the timing and the actual events that will lead to this implementation. Since KAP [Guru Kaperoni] has been so effective in reading up on the IMF and reporting what he has found, we know that the IMF has a worldwide plan to make the dinar a powerful tool for the entire world economy. Thus this “memorandum” may actually be a subtle statement that the IMF has run out of patience with the Iraqis and their own time frame. Therefore, I see that things will move forward much more quickly now as the IMF (and the World Bank) have recommended for well over a year now.
11-10-2015 Newshound Guru wmawhite …the writing has always been on wall. There are no secrets as to what Iraq intends to do…once it is done all of the investment community will not be surprised because it is expected. The only part that remains is the timing.
11-10-2015 RUMOR Guru Mnt Goat So far we are seeing many things on path for a late Dec 2015 or early 2016 RV window of opportunity. There is a very strong indication for this window. …I asked everyone to be on the look out for certain events. I have said that only when you see these events (golden nuggets) could there be a strong indication of an upcoming RV window of opportunity. Such signs as news of launching the new 50k or 100k notes, articles about increasing the value of the dinar, distributing the lower denominations and coins, news of going international, deleting the zeros, putting the currency on a float, etc. Iraq simply is not going to just trigger an RV without doing all the needed preparation for it. NEVER before since 2012 have we seen such discussion and events unfolding to indicate an RV is just on the horizon. …we read that today parliament plans to do the first reading on the 2016 budget.
11-10-2015 RUMOR Guru Mnt Goat Many GOLDEN NUGGETs. Wow! – So many nuggets just recently on the currency reform. Last week it was about the issue of a “fixed” vs “float” now its about the effects on the continuance of the “project to delete the zeros”. The good news they are discussing it again along with other items very pertinent to the RV and they are all goodies we expect and should expect right about now to see. The timing is perfect. Now we see in this article…that they have made a decision to float the currency and it will be solely the CBI’s responsibility. In floating it they will get off the peg strictly to the US dollar and use instead an SDR. They admit now is the time to float. Going on the SDR tells us they plan to float it but this time go international since the SDR is pegging against a basket of other international currencies and not just one such as US dollar. So how will this float work…
11-10-2015 RUMOR Guru Mnt Goat First they intend to come out with a very low rate (unknown ??) and let if float for 4-7 days. During this time period they will issue the new lower denominations paper and coins. Then after this initial float they will revalue the currency to the true value and let it float also. They will of course cap the float and when it hits the cap after climbing as the market adjusts it then will settle down to the normal rate going forward. We have been told this normal rate will be above the Kuwaiti dinar. Could the RV go prior to late December? Sure it could and anything is possible in this situation. However…there are still a few pieces they need to put in place prior to the RV. I have to tell you it is getting better and better as we near December. Let’s see what other golden nuggets they bring us in these coming weeks.
11-10-2015 Newshound Guru Kaperoni (Press release) “Iraqi Central Bank Governor responded to the remarks relating to monetary policy” This is really interesting IMO. First his response to the recent articles (floating, etc) is rather quick. So I think some of this is to curb speculation. He also mentions though at the end “The bank will soon launch its strategy for the years 2016 – 2020″ which is interesting as it is falls in line with the timeframe they have mentioned several times to delete the zeros. Let’s hope that early 2016 is the beginning.