Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions 12-11-14
Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions 12-11-14
12-11-2014 Newshound Guru Kaperoni …many ask all the time “is the CBI in compliance with the IMF or not” and we all look at the numbers and try and figure it out…Official rate/Market rate stuff which is very important. You see under IMF Article XIV, the IMF is teaching the CBI how to manage its currency and compliance is important to the IMF before they will let the CBI take the next step which as everyone knows would be for them to move to Article VIII. The IMF told us the answer we all asked…Are they in compliance? Well the answer in September was no according to the IMF Press Release, the spread in September was 2.6%. So we can go back to the CBI site, pull up the auction numbers and see what exactly they were and relation to the Official rate/Market rate. So in September, the CBI published 1203 and 1206 throughout the whole month. So Official rate is 1166 and market rate was 1203 or 1206 which according to the IMF is 2.6% and not in compliance. So now we know that the Market rate must be less for them to be in compliance and that calculation is easy to do and we can figure it out…the “golden number” appears to be 1200 or less.
12-11-2014 Newshound Guru Kaperoni [How can the CBI control the market rate though?] They control the market rate through the daily auctions that is why the currency auctions are so important its a training tool to prepare them for the day they join the big boys. So, here is where it is important…its a tough situation to maintain stability under the conditions in Iraq. So 1203 is no good and 1206 is no good…now, as of Nov 30th the rate fell to 1197 which now clearly is within 2%. So we can say with absolute certainty the CBI is in compliance at 1197 and that is official as of Nov 30th according to the CBI currency auctions. [How long do they have to stay at that rate?] …as the IMF has stated in general guidelines (not specific to Iraq) they must hold within 2% for 90 days so that puts us at Feb 28th, 2015 or March 1 however you want to see it. That is of course that the CBI can hold that rate for that entire time…they cannot wabble at all! The rate cannot climb back over 1200…this is not opinion, this is the numbers direct from the IMF.
12-11-2014 Newshound Guru Kaperoni So we all need to pray that the CBI can hold this 2% for 80 more days. The good news is parliament will return and have 60 days or so to address all the laws, bills etc. we all need. Until the CBI can prove they can hold at 2% or less for 90 days the IMF will not let them leave Article XIV and move to Article VIII. I think its important to look at last Sundays meeting with the IMF that the GOI, CBI, MoF were all there…to find out exactly where Iraq was in regards to all these conditions/etc. So now the CBI, GoI, MoF all know what needs to be done. …any substantial increase in value of the dinar is directly related to Iraq opening the currency to the world… moving to Article VIII. Until the CBI is in compliance with the IMF nothing will happen.
12-11-2014 Newshound Guru Adam Montana [Will there be a deadline for converting in the large Dinars for the small ones, or can I hold the large ones as long as I please without a penalty?] We don’t know if they will instate a “deadline” to exchange the current currency, but I am confident that we will have a minimum of 90 days to exchange our notes.
12-11-2014 Newshound Guru Millionday GLOBAL ECONOMICS REQUIRES A REALITY RATE TO ENTER THE GLOBE FOR BANKING OR THE MARKET ECONOMY THEY ARE REPORTING THEY MOVING TO — SO WE SHALL SEE WHAT THEY DO — INTERNATIONAL BANKING REQUIRES THE ABILITY TO EXCHANGE AND SO DOES TOURISM NO MATTER WHERE YOU GO OR EVEN INVESTMENT WHEN YOU HAVE YOUR OWN COUNTRY CURRENCY. [To activate the dinar, are they saying it will only revalue in Iraqi or are they saying it will go internationally as well?] THE CHANGE IN THE DINAR PURCHASING POWER IN COUNTRY WILL RESULT IN THE CHANGE OF ITS RATES COMPARED TO INTERNATIONAL CURRENCIES WHEN THEY ENTER THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET.
12-11-2014 Intel Guru TD Comments from my Kurdish friend (as usual treat all as rumor and do your own sound diligence): The sounds of distrust and disappointment between the Kurds and Baghdad is mounting. The Kurds feel that they may be reliving the same old, same old under the new administration as they did with Maliki and the endless empty promises Baghdad fails to deliver on. President Masum and Barzani have given the Kurdistan Parliament the full go ahead of preparations of their own constitution & functioning formations of their own branches of government to set up in the coming new year.
12-11-14 Intel Guru TD I’M TOLD THAT A CONCRETE DEADLINE OF AUGUST 1st, 2015 has been set for either substantial progress by Baghdad of equal power & economic sharing or else the Kurds will announce to the world their declaration of an independent state. My friend tells me the Kurds are fully serious and committed to this objective. THIS IS NOT A BLUFF!! In the weeks and months ahead you’ll hear a very strong voice from the Kurds regarding this goal. Given the still very shaky landscape of the existence of a unified country known as IRAQ all other points including of course currency reform are simply mute talking points.
12-11-2014 RUMOR Guru There was a meeting in DC two days ago…We are now within the window. It could be any time to today to the 22nd of December – that is when it ends. It could start any day but it ends on the 22nd, and restarts after the 2nd of January. Everyone wants to go immediately…apart from one group. The parliamentary stuff will be done today, and they get to choose their own time. The US also gets to choose its own time, how it will roll out and who gets to participate. That’s why I’m super-fantastic…The US got everything they asked for, so they should be happy, too. [Is this coming to an end?] That’s what we are hearing!
12-10-2014 RUMOR Guru So what we understand has been agreed is that Iraq is cleaning up a few things, Iraq and the world will revalue, and the US will start the rollout in a few days for the internet groups. [What should we expect to see from Iraq? A speech from Abadi, what other clues?] The CBI will change the rate, making sure that no one gets in the way. After this legislative round is over in a couple of hours, they will tell the US that the list has been checked off, and they will get together with Abadi and the CBI. They will then pull the trigger, and then Abadi will make a minor speech in Iraq to not cause an international stir, and that will change the rate inside Iraq. The US may take a few days to open this up, or they may use this as the signal to quietly release this to the internet right away.
12-10-2014 Newshound Guru Adam Montana For those of you that are new… let me give you some cliff notes: 1. 2003 or so, the Iraqi Dinar is trading at ~2000:1 down from a much higher rate. Thank you, Saddam. 2. 2012 The Iraqi Dinar is trading at almost double that… to the good side. Anyone that bought Dinar in 2004 has now doubled their money. 3. Back in 2009 or so, I said we need to see a few major things happen… GOI, HCL, CH7…so where are we now? CH7 – DONE! There are a few minor details hanging on it, but for all intents and purposes Chapter 7 is no longer an issue.
12-10-2014 Newshound Guru Adam Montana GOI is ROCKING – With the removal of Maliki and Abadi at the helm, Iraqi Parliament has accomplished more in the last couple months than Maliki did in 5 years… and you know why, of course! Because Abadi WANTS to move Iraq forward, but Maliki …did nothing but make backroom deals that lined his own pockets… And that brings us to the final piece of the puzzle… HCL. Right now, as you’re all aware, we have been in “limbo” about this thing… and I’m confident in my research enough that I will tell you this: We are INCHES away from a full HCL… but right now, we have an “Agreement” – not a “LAW”.
12-10-2014 Newshound Guru Adam Montana I know, I know! Those of you that wanted to cash in yesterday and not a minute later… you’re probably mad. But those of you that understand the situation and know that this was always going to take some time… well, you and I are pretty darned excited right now! The HCA is the biggest major step into the HCL that we have ever seen, and I’ll seriously be surprised if this goes more than a couple more months. They are making REAL progress!
12-10-2014 Newshound Guru tlm724 one paragraph from the actual report from the IMF: “The IMF will continue to support Iraq through policy advice, technical assistance, and training. The 2015 Article IV consultation discussions with the authorities will take place in the coming months.” I take this as good news for sure, it will not take long for Iraq to meet the requirements for article VIII, consultation in the coming months could happen very quickly! Like January or February for example but the first quarter of the year still feels good to me. I like the report and find it encouraging for sure, they continue to grow despite the difficult circumstances!
12-10-2014 Newshound Guru Millionday THE IMF FEELS AS IF THEY CAN NOW HAND OVER THE ECONOMIC CHANGES ETC TO IRAQ — GREAT NEWS TO SAY THE LEAST. [is it that the IMF had to give the final say to Iraq to push the button, based on meeting economic reform infrastructure – etc?] CBI IS INDEPENDENT AND HAS THE JOB OF SETTING THE CURRENCY RATES BUT WHAT IS BEHIND THE SCENES HAS NOT BEEN RELEASED AS WE ALL KNOW I STICK TO THE INK SO NO GUESSING. I THINK THAT THE RELEASE OF THE IMF IS A TURN OF A PAGE.
12-10-2014 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG Maliki left Iraq in worst financial shape than anybody realized. It’s just coming out how much the DFT Funds he spent and how much of the CBI reserves he spent. He couldn’t have done that without an insider. This is not necessarily bad news for us. It is not necessarily going to impact us anymore or less than it was going to. I think they are going to deal with him before too much longer. The current PM is doing everything we had hoped Maliki would have done. [What are your thoughts on the dong?] I doubt that it is concurrent with the dinar. I don’t think the dong and the dinar are interrelated. [ It would Iraq very little good to revalue at 1/10 of a penney, 1 cent, or 10 cents, but should come out something like what it was prior to the war?] Conventional thinking, yes, however, because of the current situation in Iraq, it’s not impossible to believe that they wouldn’t do something like an introductory rate & I think it will be a managed regime, not a float…they will put it where they want it and do something with it later.
12-10-2014 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG [I heard it need to be close to Kuwait’s rate?] I think sooner or later that’s probably a goal but I don’t think that’s going to happen immediately… What Maliki did is a double edged sword. It will probably move thing along sooner but it probably won’t be as much. [Are we looking at 2015 before the exchange will take place?] There may be one more major artery of influence from Maliki in the CBI and that may be a potential problem and once that is out of the way…but they need it now. It can happen any time and I think between now and the 1st of the year is an opportune moment.
12-10-2014 Newshound Guru wmawhite We know for a fact, the PM, COM, & Parliament are juggling a bunch of balls in the air and they tell us they are trying to get to some place with it, they are trying to get the first budget passed prior to year that it is required and we understand too that they can’t do anything with that budget until they change the value of their currency. They cannot do any of those investment items that they talked about, that’s a fact. So, if they are going to live by the 2015 budget sometime in 2015, then things are going to have to change in our favor.
12-10-2014 Intel Guru Jester NO ONE… AND I MEAN NO ONE… NOT THE 100% CONFIRMED BS… NOT ANYONE… KNOWS FOR SURE THE TIMING…AND THEREFORE SINCE THAT IS UNKNOWN… THERE IS NO WAY TO KNOW HOW THE PLAN WILL UNFOLD…EVEN NOW THE REST OF THE WORLD CONTINUES TO PLOW FORWARD ON THEIR PLANS WHILE THE US RESISTS THE CHANGE… THE WORD TODAY IS STILL INEVITABLE… THAT THINGS ARE MOVING AROUND… NO TIMING IS GIVEN…