Fitch: Oil prices will reach $120 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed
Fitch: Oil prices will reach $120 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed
2026-03-21
Shafaq News – Baghdad
In a recent report, Fitch Ratings predicted that the oil market would experience sharp fluctuations in 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed due to military tensions in the region.
The agency explained that the average price of Brent crude could reach $120 per barrel if the Strait remains closed for six months, while it could reach about $100 if the closure lasts for only three months.
She explained that navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has been greatly affected by the ongoing war between the United States and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other, which broke out at the end of last month, increasing concerns about global oil supplies.
She added that if the shutdown continues for three months, Brent crude is expected to hit around $130 a barrel during the shutdown period, before falling back to around $90 by the end of the year.
If the shutdown extends to six months, the agency expects the price per barrel to range between $130 and $170 during the shutdown period, and to also fall to about $90 by the end of the year.
In its baseline scenario, Fitch predicted that the average price of Brent crude would be around $70 per barrel during 2026, rising to $100 in March, then to $90 during the second quarter, before falling back to around $60.
shafaq.com
