China in Iraq: A soft power that seizes oil with the approval of the “framework”
China in Iraq: A soft power that seizes oil with the approval of the “framework”
2025-01-20 01:16
Shafaq News/ The Dutch Clingendael Institute, which specializes in international affairs, highlighted the pillars of China’s soft power in Iraq, pointing out its limitations in terms of ties with the Kurdistan Region.
The report, translated by Shafaq News Agency, addressed the goals of Chinese influence, which focuses on securing energy sources of oil and gas, an equation that contributes to the stability of political and social authority and its elites in Iraq.
The Dutch institute’s report suggested that Chinese influence would remain at this level, given Beijing’s lack of security and military presence in the country, despite the competition it shows towards the American presence.
Chinese presence
He stated that the main goal of China’s involvement in Iraq is to ensure a safe flow of oil and diversify Beijing’s imports without making it dependent on Baghdad, noting that there is a possibility of increasing the current 10% of Chinese oil imports that originate from Iraq.
The report explained that an estimated half to two-thirds of Iraq’s oil production actually comes from fields and wells in which Chinese companies participate as investment, production, or operational services providers.
He saw that China dominates this economic sector, although it is possible to replace Beijing as a buyer of Iraqi oil due to the short-term and global nature of the oil trade.
The report pointed out that the political elites in Iraq will increasingly need Chinese investments to maintain current levels of production, which generate revenues on which the political settlement and social stability in Iraq depend.
Contrary to what some believe, there does not appear to be a broader geopolitical agenda behind China’s presence in Iraqi oil, nor does the shift in Iraqi oil exports to China come at the expense of the United States, according to the Dutch report.
China maintains fairly strong diplomatic relations with Iraq in parallel with its important economic relations, but from a security perspective, the relations are marginal, according to the Dutch institute.
Welcome Frame
However, the report said, China is working to establish security and diplomatic platforms – particularly through the Global Security Initiative ( GSI ) and the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum ( CASCF ) – through which China can develop its diplomatic and security capabilities in the medium term.
At the same time, China seeks to expand its soft power among Iraqi elites and populations through Belt and Road Initiative projects, financing, and other economic deals, in addition to its anti-US rhetoric and public outreach diplomacy.
The report found that the main ruling elites in Iraq, in the “Coordination Framework”, generally view China as a welcome partner while these elites benefit from the economic prosperity achieved thanks to good oil prices, relative security stability and stable political control.
The report explained that there are three factors that may explain China’s attractiveness to Iraq’s political elites: China follows a foreign policy that is less interventionist, more respectful, and more predictable than the policies followed by the United States, adding that the Chinese presence in Iraq leads to diversifying the group of Baghdad’s foreign partners, in addition to the fact that China’s economic deals create mutual profits on Iraqi terms.
He added that China’s intentions to engage with Iraq are in good agreement with Baghdad’s efforts to balance its dealings with the United States, Iran and others.
Strategic partnership
The report also noted that contemporary relations between Iraq and China began in 2008, before the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq in 2011, referring in this context to the visits of a number of Iraqi prime ministers to China, such as Nouri al-Maliki in 2011 and Haider al-Abadi in 2015, which contributed to establishing a fruitful relationship focused on oil and gradually expanded to other economic fields. Since 2013, China has become the largest source of foreign direct investment in Iraq, while since 2021, Iraq has become the third largest oil supplier to China, after Saudi Arabia and Russia.
To underscore these ambitions, the report said the two countries signed a “strategic partnership” in 2015, indicating a Chinese desire for stability and long-term relations based on two pillars of mutual gain and bilateral trust.
The report indicated that recent years have witnessed a significant increase in commercial activity, as, for example, the percentage of Iraqi oil exported to China increased from 19.7% in 2017 to 29.1% in 2020 (while it was 2.3% in 2008).
He explained that China’s strategy towards the Middle East is primarily related to securing the oil supplies it needs to develop itself, while the secondary goal is to enhance Beijing’s geopolitical influence in the region, preferably by weakening the influence of the United States.
He pointed out that the volume of trade between China and the Middle East nearly doubled from 2017 to 2022, from $262.5 billion to $507.2 billion, noting that the Middle East region as a whole was China’s fastest growing trading partner during 2022.
Regarding Iraq, the report said that the main goal of China’s involvement in Iraq is to ensure a reliable flow of oil in order to diversify Beijing’s oil imports, but without making China dependent on Baghdad. In contrast, the report said that Iraq is resorting to diversifying its options, such as by hiring a South Korean company to develop the Faw port, participating in China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” and its own plans to establish the “Development Road” project, noting that this reflects that none of the political factions in Iraq have any intention of becoming dependent on China as an alternative to the United States.
Kurdistan Region
The report stated that the scope of China’s official engagement with the Kurdistan Region is based on the principle of non-interference in internal affairs, and on the fact that China is not inclined to encourage the establishment of autonomous or separatist regions given China’s own history with regions such as Tibet, Hong Kong and Xinjiang, or with regard to the island of Taiwan.
The report pointed out that China was late in opening a consulate in Erbil, and has not yet opened a Kurdish consulate in China, while avoiding making official contacts at the highest political levels, adding that the Chinese Communist Party maintains relations with the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, similar to the relations that the Chinese Communist Party maintains with many other political parties around the world.
Instead, the report said, China’s engagement in the Kurdistan Region has focused on social and cultural issues such as disseminating Chinese literature, studies and culture, providing scholarships and establishing Huawei academies, providing low-cost reconstruction services through state-linked Chinese companies, and retaining a stake in some oil and gas fields in the Kurdistan Region, although Beijing’s largest investments are in southern Iraq.
The report saw that China focuses on soft power activities, adding that from the perspective of the ruling elites in the Kurdistan Region, China is of interest as a globally influential and effective state, and it can promote the elites’ goals of maintaining their power and potentially obtaining greater autonomy, although it is unlikely that China will provide much assistance in such efforts.
From an economic perspective, the Dutch report concluded that Beijing is important for Iraqis in the short term, noting that the most important thing is the old oil infrastructure that requires extensive maintenance in the near future to maintain production at the same level, recalling the importance of this because oil revenues represent 85% of the Iraqi government budget, which is considered the main source of political and social stability in the country.
The report concluded by pointing out that Iraq’s stability is currently threatened primarily by three phenomena: first, the fragility of institutions, second, the spread of armed groups, and third, the possibility of the re-emergence of ISIS or other forms of terrorism and violent extremism.
shafaq.com
