Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions 2-8-18
Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions 2-8-18
2-8-2018 Intel Guru RayRen98 From Monday…we shared about lower denominations being out in smaller numbers, with more being released in the coming days. We have not had an update on that yet, but think that they are only in some hands so far. We have also been told that prices have been adjusted slightly. The biggest changes there will happen when the change in value comes in…when they make the announcement. Budget due out tomorrow, Feb. 8th. We were getting confirmation that Kurdistan is getting 14%. CURRENT WINDOW: …We were told the second and then the 15th. A few things needed to happen, but I think we are good. We are in the window.
2-8-2018 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Monetary policy is not a simple thing to explain. I do not think the CBI is ready to float at this time. Mainly because the IMF does not want them to. They want them to stay pegged until they meet compliance with the IMF and can move to Article VIII. That being said, I do think the CBI wants to float once they move to Article VIII. My belief is they will pick a new floating exchange rate regime that they can use to raise the value gradually to counter inflationary pressure created by the influx of investment flowing through the Capital Account of the CBI (hopefully that will capital will begin to come into Iraq soon). This is well documented in several IMF articles discussing the transition.
2-8-2018 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Keep in mind, we all want this to start…but the reality is the CBI cannot float or for that matter do anything other than improve the banking environment at this time. Why? Because there is no upward pressure on the dinar. There is no investment in Iraq’s private sector at this time. Until there is investment, or compliance with the IMF, the CBI’s hands are sort of tied. Only after this conditions are met can the CBI consider moving to a float, ending the auctions, and have the dinar join the worlds currencies.
2-8-2018 Newshound/Intel Guru Mnt Goat So where do we stand today in the RV sage [saga?]? We are waiting for the GOI to pay all reoccurring monthly debts on time. One of the goals of the SBA between the IMF and the GOI was to finally get the finances turned around so that the government would be in a position to be able to do this and does do this. So in late December 2017, when they agreed it was time to re-instate the currency, part of the pre-conditions was to get current on all of these outstanding occurring routine debts. If we look at their payment schedule it certainly looks like they want to complete this by around mid February (next Monday). Part of this process is getting a workable budget passed in parliament that includes proper resources to fulfill these debts.
2-8-2018 Newshound/Intel Guru Mnt Goat Again another hold up because of arguments with the KRG on the getting the 17% (as guaranteed by the constitution. The GOI has no problems with giving them this amount but in auditing they have found so much corruption and that much of this money goes to fill the pockets of the politicians and not the salaries and planned projects. …So the IMF steps in and mandates the GOI that they need to pay 14% and their loans are contingent upon obeying. They want this issue resolved. The GOI comes up with a suggestion. They will give the KRG 12% in the budget and the other 5% pay them in a “special emergency allocation”. This is now on the table and we wait to see what they do.
2-8-2018 Newshound/Intel Guru Mnt Goat So we can see that having the budget passed is also needed. Folks nobody has a checklist of items. It all just happens this way. It all just plays out. It is all an ongoing “RV Saga”. It is NOT about having the new RV rate in the budget that is so important, as to why they need to pass it… This RV is not driving anything. But rather prior agreements are driving the process and holding it up. …the RV is just the end game and the end product. So do they want to have all these items completed prior to the upcoming Donor Conference in Kuwait? I would think so but I can not prove it. It makes total sense to me, but then again they are so late in getting everything done…
2-7-2018 Newshound Guru Adam Montana [So now that the Kurds are throwing a hissy fit over losing almost 5% share of the budget, where does that leave the RV??? They keep boycotting meetings and know without them and their supporters, there is no quorum. So no budget, no HCL, no RV. … What can Abadi and the Parliament do to fix the problem?] That’s a very good point, and it’s exactly what I believe is really holding up the process at this point. The good news for us, of course, is that they can throw all the tantrums they want… eventually we will get to a point where the budget is settled, their share of the revenue will be established, and it will be very apparent to all that it is in everyone’s best interest to move forward with the HCL and then of course a revision of the exchange rate. I don’t see it dragging out another 10 years. It might not happen “tomorrow” or even “this week”, but the conclusion is inevitable. Hang in there, everyone.
2-7-2018 Newshound Guru chattels I was asked whether I thought that the rate, impliedly ” new rate ” was in the budget. I seriously doubt that any increase in the value of the dinar is going to be forecast in / by the budget. …there is a discernable rate / value to the dinar evinced in the budget. That value in my time has always been the current value of the dinar. The budget is a months long process. Is Iraq going to announce an increase in the value of the dinar in their draft budget? I don’t think so.
2-7-2018 Intel Guru RayRen98 DINAR IS SCARCE, IRAQ HAS “REPORTEDLY” STOPPED DISTRIBUTIONS…TICK, TOCK…TICK, TOCK. THERE’S A LIGHT AT THE END OF THIS TUNNEL… IT APPEARS THAT DEALERS ARE SELLING “ON HAND” INVENTORY ONLY? KEEP AN EYE OPEN ON THE DEALERS AND ON FOREX…THINGS MIGHT UNFOLD RIGHT BEFORE YOUR VERY EYES.
2-7-2018 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Article: “Central banks needed five hours to submit their applications to buy foreign currency” [Here comes the RV at one to one.] There is no RV. Not to mention this article has nothing to do with implying such. This is an attempt to control the daily currency auctions and weed out corruption, but to me it is just another restriction which could have a negative effect on the spread. The CBI has a habit of implementing these types of controls rather than doing what it should be doing…arresting the crooks themselves. […Kap no offense here but the CBI kills your theories when they say NO FLOAT.] …the CBI did not say no float, just no float at this time. And this makes sense since there is no momentum through the Capital Account to create inflationary pressure and appreciate the currency.
2-7-2018 Newshound Guru Breitling …I have so much confidence in what is coming down the road with the dinar. In the past we’ve talked a little about what it could do…what the Iraqis are looking at market wise. None of that stuff is going to prevent the dinar from revaluing. None of it. Zero. It’s going to revalue. The question is. How fast? And at what rate? The future is determining that…So very confident in it…
2-7-2018 Intel Guru Bruce We know Iraq has had to get things in order. We know they were released from our US Treasury to put out their rate for the Iraqi dinar a week and half ago, maybe longer…but somehow they haven’t…yet. There was some resistance in the Parliament as far as various factions in the government still. Then we find now…Everyone pretty much is on the same page. We understand couple days ago some announcements were made by Prime Minister Abadi and behind him standing was Maliki. Maliki had said they had some unity now and…He is not going to run for Prime Minister again. Also, that he was behind the RV going thru…where he was so resistant the entire time he was in power. That is one reason why it didn’t happen. Now he is no longer a factor.
2-7-2018 Intel Guru Bruce Other information we got today from Iraq…from our contact that…February 7, the new budget would be passed and read for the third time. …there has been a lot of pressure exerted on Abadi to get that rate out… It looks like it finally reached consensus on the budget, and have it in the Gazette on the February 8, which is Thursday. I think we are just where we needed to be as far as that goes. You know the budget would contain the rate and the rate would be seen…by the 8th if not sooner. We know that the dinar is being traded again for about the last 3 days… …This is a real interesting time. …I am getting strong Intel pointing toward any moment now. We know we have been close before, but I think we are even closer than we [have] ever been.
2-7-2018 Newshound Guru mike Article: “Corruption in Iraq file reaches the most dangerous stages” Quote: “The general amnesty issued by parliament earlier in an important outlet for corrupt law in Iraq, provides them with a cover legislative…” …Abadi is Maliki-Lite, he just has better optics and represents hope for change. It’s all smoke and mirrors, both are from the Dawa Party and answer to Iran. Going after the Kurd’s and Sunni’s for their corruption and ignoring the ruling Shia is typical but…hopefully the IMF sees it as well. You can bet those who attend the “donor” conference in Kuwait know what’s going on, imagine putting money into a country that has laws on the books that protect the corrupt politicians. That’s a pretty tough sell, it’s throwing good money after bad. This conference starts in six days on Monday and Parliament isn’t even going to meet again until Sunday, I don’t think the odds of them completing a budget in time for the donor conference are very good.