Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions 11-9-15
Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions 11-9-15
11-9-2015 Newshound Guru Enorrste Article quote: “the Council of Ministers may ask the Central Bank “soon” to leave the currency auction and resorting to “float the dollar” So now we have the finance committee in Parliament (at least Jabouri), the Council of Ministers, the IMF, and the CBI all on the same page. There is no more serious talk of not moving to the float. Instead, the talk is essentially one over timing. Saleh is insistent, and correct, that the final decision with regard to timing is in the hands of the CBI. They are on records with several recent articles now stating that they wish to reduce the money supply in Iraq. This can only be done with the raise in the value of the dinar. Those few who are pushing for the float so that the value of the dinar will go down are, to put it nicely, ignorant as to how the process works. As long as the CBI is in charge the value will not be allowed to fall, period. Therefore, I am still cautiously optimistic that the float will commence before the end of the year or early in 2016.
11-9-2015 Intel/Newshound Guru tman23 They have the AML and Investment Law…But neither is activated…They have the salary ladder hanging … and there is 2 things we are missing (do not know exactly what they are) for the “five axes” to the reforms… Then Abadi will announce the SECOND PHASE… I am assuming the second announcement will be BIG.
11-9-2015 Newshound Guru Mike Article: “Dr.. The appearance of Mohammed Saleh *: savings imbalances in Iraq: vision diagnostic **” It’s pretty clear that Saleh understands what’s going on… Like Saleh said…borrowing won’t work and they can’t change the price of oil, the only thing they can do is get the economy up and running. I just don’t see how they can do that without an internationally accepted currency to purchase imports with and the tariff’s to protect those brave enough to start businesses in Iraq.
11-9-2015 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG Article quote: “the Council of Ministers may ask the Central Bank “soon” to leave the currency auction and resorting to “float the dollar”; because according to sources provides state what it called “significant returns Dinareh”, to feed the state treasury, the dollar exchange rate…” While I am not sure it’s going to be some measure of a “float” (though it may well be what they finally resort to)… what is VERY INTERESTING is the timing. …it fully appears they are headed towards some currency adjustment with the intent of bridging this budget gap… It sounds like to me – (the “float” term could mean several things)… they are intent on something happening soon. …my opinion (and that is all it is…) – if such an event occurs – it will likely move up very quickly (relatively speaking, of course)…IMHO – it won’t take long to reach a realistic value (and that is what would help their budget).
11-9-2015 Newshound Guru Stryker “Parliament agenda number 35 Tuesday 10 November 2015.” “Fifth: The first reading of the draft general budget of the Federal Republic of Iraq for fiscal year 2016 (the Finance Committee, the Legal Committee). (Article 38).” URGENT: 2016 BUDGET IS ON PARLIAMENTS AGENDA.
11-9-2015 Newshound Guru Kaperoni …Maliki and the CoM were the problems/holdup under Shabibi holding up everything he tried to do. In fact, once stating..”we demand…” So IMO the CoM is very important. The very fact the CoM is on board (it appears anyway) is a great thing!
11-8-2015 Intel/Newshound Guru tman23 Abadi will announce another turn…AGAIN…the next announcement will have to be something to do with the 3 zeros…and this will need a rate…and this will have to come before the start of 2016.
11-8-2015 Newshound Guru wmawhite The Investment Law passed the house/parliament a week and a half ago. The HydroCarbon Law is already a law and has many parts to it that still must be negotiated for implementation. [whats next in this ” Investment”?] They have told us…continue reforms and “activate the private sector.”…IMO. also, by reading the articles from this past week there was one central message from everyone… “We do not have time to waste…we must change now.”
11-8-2015 Intel Guru Frank26 This morning another Iraqi Cleric went on Iraqi TV — (but this guy is kind of a bad guy who has been a pain to the USA for the last 12 years) but it appears that even he has joined Abadi and Sastani…as he has stated on TV through the mosques…said they had a “pow-wow” last night and there is real change coming to Iraq…that reforms would need to get done …and parliament needs to get the reforms done. All of the sudden everyone has turned 180 degrees and are now supporting the reforms.
11-8-2015 Newshound Guru Enorrste Article quote: “…the sale process of the dollar means the withdrawal of the dinar from the local market, which will help the bank to curb money supply and reduce the resort to printing more currency.” This is consistent with the CBI stated goal of reducing the money supply. As the money supply drops the value of the dinar will rise, over time. The introduction of the 50000 dinar notes does not affect this process…because the introduction is an “even exchange” in which two 25000 notes are replaced with one 50000 note. Thus the introduction itself has no effect on the money supply.
11-8-2015 Newshound Guru Enorrste Artricle quote: “He said that the reduction option easy, but it does not help in the reform of the structural problems, and the local currency is good for exporting countries cut to stimulate exports. He added that “Iraq importing country, and to reduce the currency hurt the purchasing power of citizens with limited income.” Here we see that the CBI is specifically rejecting the suggestion to devalue the currency, even though it may appear on the surface to be an “easy fix” in terms of bringing more money to the GOI. The fact that the suggestion is rejected is very positive for our investment. It shows that the CBI is not about to go one step backward prior to moving forward.
11-8-2015 Newshound Guru Enorrste It also confirms, again, that the CBI longer term strategy is to reduce the total money supply and raise the value of the dinar. Unfortunately…the lack of political will seems to turn this into a snail’s pace operation. We can only wait. I am heartened that the goal is still in place, though, and I personally believe that we will see movement either by the end of this year or early next year.