2-25-2013: Iraqi Dinar Guru guesses!!!
2-25-2013 Newshound Guru Doc The other big thing this report confirms is the current budget being discussed uses the current program exchange rate of 1166 and not the $3+ so many are emphatically reporting. For the $3+ number to be true the budget would be more like 30 billion dinar. Once again math dispels rumor. We also know the budget is not a prerequisite for the RV although it would be welcomed if it and the other fundamentals got approved in short order. We report, you decide.
2-25-2013 Newshound Guru Doc A recent article quoted the World Bank as questioning Iraq’s assumption of $90 per barrel as being too aggressive. Specifically Ms Helen of the World Bank said “budgeting on a barrel of oil specified by $90 without exercise may lead to shock for Iraq”. The article went on to say the budget was 138 trillion dinar. This outside source confirms a couple of things namely the previous reports of the budget being 138 billion dinar are in fact in error as we reported.
2-24-2013 Intel Guru Goofball WE ARE WAITING FOR CL [CHRISTINE LEGARDE] TO SPEAK TOMORROW…AFTERNOON. O [OBAMA] WILL SPEAK…TUESDAY, RV WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT SO I HAVE BEEN TOLD. RATES HAVE NOT BEEN DISCUSSED TODAY. NOW WF [WELLS FARGO] CONTACT IS ALL EXCITED. UST STILL IN LOCKDOWN. BUT LIKE EVERYTHING KEEP AS RUMOR.
2-24-2013 Intel/Newshound Guru Poppy3 maliki has thugs in the streets attacking protestors and beating people. the demonstrators are all turning against him and reports today is the people are calling him saddam incarnated. IT APEERS THE CITIZENS HAVE ALL SEEN THE LIGHT NOW AND THE FUTURE FOR MALIKI IS BLEEK TO SAY THE LEAST. AT SOME TIME IN THE FUTURE HE WILL BE TOAST I DON’T THINK HE CAN SURVIVE THIS IN ANY WAY EVEN IF HE CAVES IN AND SAYS HE WILL PLAY BALL WITH THE LEADERS.
2-24-2013 Intel Guru Wisdom The only reason I come in here is…to let you folks know what exactly I’m hearing and where I think we stand. Blaino and I talk constantly to compare notes if things start lining up…and they do right now. SO there IS Potential for this to be released soon. NO ONE KNOWS exactly what the prerequisites are for this to go LIVE…but I have ALWAYS stood by the list I believe had to be done before this was able to happen. Now things are not so certain, and in OUR FAVOR!! It’s just how things are lining up, without Shabibi in control of the CBI, Erbil is still on the list just doesn’t have to be in place before this happens, whereas before it was. They’re meeting for Erbil in a couple of weeks anyways, so it is still close no matter what.
2-24-2013 Newshound Guru Mountainman Tomorrow could be a huge day for Iraq if they can pass the budget. The blocs have apparently reached an agreement and although they’ve said this before, I do feel like they have got it resolved this time. If they pass the budget the HCL will probably follow relatively shortly thereafter. If the leaders of Iraq are going to win over the people before the election, they need to get some work done.
2-24-2013 Newshound Guru Med Article: “Raed al-Hashemi: The process of deletion of zeros is a necessary step for administrative reform of the currency (IRIN)” GREAT ARTICLE. SHOWS THAT WE ARE STILL IN THE GAME. NOW THE DIFFERENCE IN THINKING IS THIS: SHABIBI FELT IT SEEMS THAT HE COULD RV ANYTIME, THAT HE HAD MADE THE DINAR STRONG ENOUGH AND HIS STATUS IN CBI WAS ENOUGH TO MAKE THINGS WORK. BUT THOSE IN THE GOI, IT APPEARS, HAVE A SOMEWHAT WESTERN ATTITUDE STABILITY LIMIT CORRUPTION TO PUT IT IN MOTION. BUT IT ALSO SEEMS TO MAKE IT ALSO A SEMI URGENCY EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DRAWBACKS IT APPEARS THAT THEY DONT PLAN ON HOLDING OFF TOO MUCH LONGER.
2-24-2013 Intel/Newshound Guru Poppy3 THINGS COMING TOGETHER. I KNEW THINGS WOULD START MOVING WHEN OUR PEOPLE WHERE OUT. NOW SAY BUDGET ALL IN AGREEMENT AGAIN. WILL VOTE TOMORROW FOR APPROVAL.
2-24-2013 Newshound Guru Tlar To go to a float at this time when the currency is 1166 makes no sense and is counter productive to what the bank has been doing over the last 6 months. This process is ongoing and the result is, it is dollarizing Iraq as we all know. The CBI is retiring dinar. They are not expanding the numbers of dinar out there in circulation. Iraq would be better served IMHO to just do what they have said they were going to do since 2009. Drop the zeros. I think that this would be a major mistake on Iraq’s part if they just float the currency. I personally think that’s why they are waiting. I believe the first move we see when the dinar goes international and moves to an article VIII currency, will be the removal of 3 zeros off the exchange rate. Not before. Having said that, its Iraq. Up until now, they have never acted in their own best interest.
2-24-2013 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Article: “Parliamentary Finance: this year will not attend any currency exchange or delete Ocefarha” If you took this article at face value (nothing is going to happen), then you would have to say Iraq has really gotten themselves into a real economic bind (quagmire). The Paris Club dept benchmarks would not be met, IMF Stand-by-Agreement would not be met, and the 2nd phase of the Strategic Framework Agreement appears to be not met and we would see Iraq’s money from DFI being unprotected as May 22nd and open to all past creditors. And there would be no need to send high level CoM officials for WTO training Feb 28-March 1st or discuss implementation of tariffs. Oh, and the new ISX custodial bank from Kuwait NBK. All of which is currently pushing forward. I choose to look at all this, and say we are close!
2-24-2013 Intel/Newshound Guru Poppy3 GOT A TEXT THIS MORNING THAT 4 DIGNITARIES LANDED BACK IN WASHINGTON. THEY ONLY SAW 4 AND NOT 6 MEANING 2 OTHERS OR MORE COULD HAVE FLOWN TO THEIR HOME STATES OR MAY STILL BE IN IRAQ??? THIS MAY BE A SIGN THEY ARE ALL OUT OF IRAQ. TIME WILL TELL BUT IT SURE WAS GOOD TO HEAR. I AM ENCOURAGED WE MAY SEE GOOD MOVEMENT THIS WEEK.