2-14-2013: Iraqi Dinar Guru guesses!!!
2-14-2013 Intel Guru Blaino teller screens are flashing the rate since last tuesday afternoon, 4pm PST…So over a week NOW…”never before” has “never before” been so…. Interesting to consider! here it is: locked in with both a buy and a sell…No ust hold but this is on the executive side in the foreign currency div of … A big 4 BANK…It is flashing on the teller screens! Been locked in F.E. Side since the 1st of feb and rate went down once to $3.42 buy, then back again. The flashing is to alert tellers that a new rate is imminent and to pay attention. Once it locks, we are go! one has to think, how could they let tellers have flashing iqd rates and not RV very, very soon…everybody and his brother would be in the know about RV at some point.
2-14-2013 Intel Guru Blaino I AM GETTING A LOT OF CONFIRMED INFORMATION ALL DAY… MUCH IS “CLASSIFIED” BUT I CAN TELL YOU THIS…NONE IS NEGATIVE IN ANY WAY! BANKS ARE ALL GETTING A FOREIGN SURPRISE! (ASK ME NOT!) THE GRINDING SOUND YOU HEAR IS THE LEVELING OF THE “PLAYING FIELD” AS FAR AS IS POSSIBLE TO DO! ALSO, THOSE NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT ARE GETTING HELPED OUT… HOPE THE PRICE IS NOT TOO DEAR… (PIPERS WILL BE PAID!) ALSO: THERE APPEARS TO BE A VERY FULL GI PIGGY BANK…ALL SET TO CRACK OPEN LIKE A PINATA… AND WE NEED TO HIT IT WITH OUR IQD STICK! MINE IS READY…IS YOURS?
2-14-2013 Newshound Guru LoriC I do think we are extremely close. Way too much has happened in the past few months (major changes in economic policies), to dispute this. Hang in there, this ride is almost over. The only question is how quickly is if it will float gradually, go to 1000-1 or jump straight to on par with the USD. This is of course is classified so we are left to speculate but I am very encouraged and believe the next couple of months will prove myself and many others right. Hang in there friends.
2-14-2013 Intel Guru Footforward I do expect the RV to happen between February 23rd and February 25th. I have a number of reasons for this one of which is the Standby Agreement is being eliminated & has not been renewed. Iraq is basically being told to stand on their own and without an RV it poses some challenges for Iraq. I do believe the rate is going to be good. I don’t believe it will be some little $.69 RV.
2-14-2013 Intel Guru Footforward Iraq is not a sovereign nation. How can you be a sovereign nation and still be under Chapter 7 and not be under control. A sovereign nation would be using their own currency. The rate in the budget will be close to $4 but this budget is no different than budgets from the past several years. They can’t do anything with the budget until they open the budget and it can’t be opened until it RV’s. This budget is no the one thing that we are waiting for.
2-14-2013 Intel Guru Footforward Iraq is not the problem, Iraq is not the holdup and I am 100% sure Maliki is not the problem. Being Basil III compliant has nothing to do with the RV. It is just a new standard of banking & you don’t have to have every bank changed over, it’s just something they are shooting for. It will be years before the majority of banks are Basil III compliant. It is not an indication of the timing of the RV.
2-14-2013 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG Article quote: “According to a statement issued by a judicial authority reported for “Shafaq News”, that “under the new law voted by the parliament earlier, the head of the Federal appeal Court, the nominee Judge Hassan Ibrahim Humairi will assume the presidency of the Supreme Judicial Council.” This…is very big news… It appears Parliament has wrested control of the Fed Courts from Maliki and are bent on enforcing the will of the people. I expect an expansive reform law to follow soon and then Maliki will have some real trouble on his hands. This was the same court that gave him so many early favorable rulings.
2-14-2013 Newshound Guru Adam Montana The budget seems to get a lot of attention, but it is NOT mandatory that it be done before the HCL or after Chapter 7 or in any other specific order. It makes the most sense to do it in this order: budget, HCL, Chapter 7, then RV – but there is NO LAW that states it must be done in that order. I would be comfortable placing a wager that “a” budget will be released before the RV is announced, but also keep in mind that as soon as the dinar changes value, a new budget would be adopted almost immediately. It’s my opinion that they have TWO budgets in the making – one for immediate release and another based on the anticipated RATE of the future dinar. What that rate will be is anyone’s guess.
2-14-2013 Newshound Guru Kaperoni last year at this time I was saying .90 cents because that is what the articles said. We even acquired a video where two economists were talking to each other saying “staging rate” for the dinar. [See Dinar Guru Archives for these posts] So that IMO was the plan. The thing is, this all changed when Maliki got aggressive last April to stop Shabibi. Since then, there have been several articles from various entities..such as economists, the Arab Monetary Fund, and even the CBI themselves that say free float or “orbital rate of exchange.” I would not put 5+ years of research on the dinar, and the last 7 months telling people its a free float, if I was not sure.
2-13-2013 Intel Guru Goofball Tonight through Friday…have gotten four confirmations that Friday is the drop dead date…everything is done…just waiting to pull the trigger…This is the closest it’s ever been. No one is going to see Maliki…His days are numbered or reduce him down.
2-13-2013 Newshound Guru Doc There was a recent article suggesting the dinar would be returned to 1980 levels. We have always believed the ultimate goal was for this to occur but over several years. The article does not change this fact in that it was not clear as to a timeline. We continue with the opinion that the rate will be around $1 and allowed to float. Our currency experts rendered their opinion as to the dinar’s value if it were free floated as of today. Basically they looked at the value under Saddam and adjusted it for inflation. Remember Saddam artificially kept the dinar at the $3.42 level even though inflation approached 50% for many years. The analysis suggested a maximum current value in the free market of around $1.30. However when the political climate is factored in they question a value much over $1. What is most interesting is this seems to align very well with the lower initial rate and free float opinions. Time will eventually reveal all. We report, you decide.
2-13-2013 Newshound/Intel Guru Bluedog I think Maliki is on his last leg…in the near future you will see him with less power. They opened up flights to Kuwait after 22 years…that’s a signal of positive for chapter 7. Hardly any articles now…when Shabibi was there, 3 to 4 articles a day was coming out. No talk now – quiet, this is telling me that something is coming real quick. Chapter 7 done, HCL done…just waiting for Lagarde to pull the trigger. [post 2 of 2]
2-13-2013 Newshound/Intel Guru Bluedog Big news of the day is the governor of the Central Bank is gone…article did not say who removed him. Guards in Finance Ministry were arrested today and replaced by Military Police. This budget has been done…just a matter of them opening it up, signing it, opening it up to the public. We don’t have to have budget for RV. [post 1 of 2….stay tuned]
2-13-2013 Intel Guru Goofball I HAVE CALLS INTO THE SOURCES NOW. ONE CALLED BACK TELLING ME THAT WE MAY SEE SOMETHING TONIGHT.
2-13-2013 Newshound Guru Arthur [long time, no see] IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO EXPLAIN WHAT IS GOING ON. MALIKI IS BEING MARGINALIZED…AS WE SPEAK. THEY REMOVED HIS CBI GOON TURKI AND HIS COURT GOON MAHMOUD. HE IS ALMOST POWERLESS. NOW ALI DABBAGH IS ABOUT TO TESTIFY AGAINST MALIKI AND HIS SON ABOUT THEIR CORRUPTION AND FORGED DOCUMENTS DESPITE THEM THREATENING HIS LIFE. A NATIONAL MEETING IS SCHEDULED FOR NEXT WEEK AND THE BUDGET AND MALIKI WILL BE DONE BY MONTHS END.
2-13-2013 Intel/Newshound Guru Poppy3 Turki is only aproved by the IMF to do day to day operations of the CBI in country. THEY WOULD NOT APPROVE HIM BEYOND THAT AND SAID SO. AND NO, THEY ARE NOT HAPPY WITH HIM EVEN DOING THAT FROM ALL INDICATIONS.
2-13-2013 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG MED is correct. [Kuwait was not going to suggest iraq out if chap 7 this year?] I have said all along that Kuwait wouldn’t go along…it won’t change the timing of the RV – Maliki’s position will…I know some folks won’t like that – but it’s been my position all along and it is being validated by current news and events and Ban Ki-Moon is the other guy Maliki needs on his side to get them out of CH7 and he’s tanked that relationship far too many times for Iraq’s well-being. [that could change as well, right? if the circumstances were to warrant it?] It sure could – but I doubt it will. Maliki has the mind of a dictator – he’ll ride this to the end…which will be soon. Once they handle him – interim/caretaker gov’t, stability, CBI Gov, RV, CH7 and better world relations…all very quickly.
2-13-2013 Newshound Guru Doc Our opinion continues that the HCL is far more critical than the budget. In fact we now believe the Kurds are using the budget as leverage to get the HCL done. Unfortunately Maliki has countered by attempting to reduce the amount the Kurds receive in the budget. Hence the political gamesmanship continues. As we have reported previously the HCL is critical to “secure” assets that will support a higher value for the dinar. How long this this continue? Recent articles suggest the HCL is low priority for the GOI aka Maliki. We concur with the opinion that no one really knows for sure. If past history prevails it could be many more weeks or more.
2-13-2013 Intel Guru Poppy3 ONCE MALIKI’S POWER IS UNDER CONTROL THE RV WILL HAPPEN VERY FAST AND MALIKI MAY HAVE BEEN TAKEN UNDER CONTROL TODAY [TUESDAY] BEHIND THE SCENES WILL KNOW MORE TOMORROW [WEDNESDAY, 2-13-13] EVENING.
2-13-2013 Intel Guru Blaino I THINK WE ARE VERY CLOSE AND THERE IS MUCH YOU DO NOT KNOW…AGAIN, AS I TOLD YOU… MEBBY A LIL TOO EARLY FOR YOU TO UNDERSTAND…”I THINK I CAN SEE THE RV FROM MY HOUSE!”…IT IS HUGE, AND SLOW MOVING. TAKE A LOOK FROM YOUR HOUSE TOMORROW [WEDNESDAY]…MEBBY YOU’LL SEE IT TOO! [HisBlessed: Blaino have you ever felt we were this close before???] NOPE, NEVER.
2-13-2013 Newshound Guru Adam Montana the next news is that Attorney Al-Shara has announced the intention to move on the Oil and Gas law (that’s HCL, my friends!) after the budget is officially approved. They won’t delay on this budget forever, it will be done soon. They have already made I would guess 98% of their preliminary HCL decisions, so that will be done soon as well. Those two items, combined with quite a few other things floating around, have indeed got some of us very excited! But as always… this is Iraq. Don’t get too crazy about any date that anyone gives you – things look excellent for this month, but AGAIN – this. is. Iraq.
2-13-2013 Newshound Guru Adam Montana This certainly has been an exciting week for both rumors AND news! First a few news points…the budget is always a major deal with Iraq – every single year we see at least a couple delays before it is actually passed. During that time, there is so much confusion it’s mind boggling. When are they going to pass it, are they meeting this week, next, did they meet today?! Also, since many of the actual “press releases” are released in arabic and then translated, some context always gets jumbled. The current situation right now is that they have reached the end of the normal delays and I’m expecting a final announcement shortly.
2-13-2013 Newshound Guru Doc There are several opinions floating around that suggest the 2013 budget contains a RV rate of $3.42 and proof is the 138 billion dinar total number. Unfortunately the math simply does not add up to support this. As we earlier reported if the 138 billion dinar is correct then the exchange rate assume in the budget would be around $0.69. The argument given against this is the budget assumption of 2.9 million barrels per day of oil is way low to what is really in the budget. Lets assume that is true and both the 138 billion dinar and $3.42 are both correct. In order for this to work Iraq would have to pump 14.4 million barrels per day at $90 per barrel. We all know this is impossible and will not hit this level for years to come. The bottom line is either the 138 billion dinar or $3.42 number is wrong. And if the basis of the argument is incorrect then the argument itself has to have no merit. The math simply doesn’t support this theory.
2-13-2013 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Article: “Iraqi Airways to resume flights to Kuwait” The current UN Chapt. 7 is a hybrid version since they lifted most in Dec 2011. Very hard to tell if air travel is considered under what remains.