US military expert: Counter-terrorism forces and Peshmerga are capable of maintaining security after the withdrawal
US military expert: Counter-terrorism forces and Peshmerga are capable of maintaining security after the withdrawal
2026-08-14
Shafaq News – Washington
Mustafa Hashim
On Friday, Rafael Cohen, director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program at the RAND Corporation, a military research institution, affirmed that the Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service and the Peshmerga forces possess sufficient experience and training to lead battles on the ground, while also noting the existence of logistical and political challenges that may affect overall military performance as the American combat role declines.
Cohen, a U.S. Army Reserve lieutenant colonel who previously served two combat tours in Iraq, told Shafaq News Agency: “We have worked with the Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Forces for years, and with the Peshmerga in various forms for even longer, so they certainly have the necessary training and experience.”
The military and strategic expert, who heads the strategy program at the RAND Center’s “Project AIR FORCE “, added that the weaknesses of these forces have traditionally lay in the areas of logistics and sustainability, noting that some of these logistical challenges still exist today.
In his analysis of the non-field dimensions, Cohen, who previously served on the National Defense Strategy Commission of Congress, explained: “Moving a little further away from the operational side, there are also political challenges that can be reflected in the military sphere. As is historically known, Iraq is governed amid multiple sectarian divisions, and one of the main concerns is that as American steps are withdrawn, those internal tensions may resurface, weakening the overall effectiveness of Iraqi military units.”
In September 2024, Iraq and the United States agreed to end the military mission of the US-led international coalition against ISIS in Iraq, as part of a phased plan to move the security relationship between the two countries from the framework of the coalition to a bilateral partnership.
The first phase of the mission ended in September 2025, while forces remained in the Kurdistan Region to support operations against the organization in Syria, with the final phase to be completed by the end of September 2026.
The international coalition was formed in 2014 to assist Iraqi forces in confronting ISIS, which at the time controlled large areas of Iraq and Syria. The mission of the coalition forces later shifted primarily to training, advising, and intelligence support, while Baghdad asserts that its forces are now capable of assuming responsibility for security and pursuing the organization’s cells.
The issue of armed factions is one of the most sensitive issues facing the Iraqi government and security forces, coinciding with the approach of September 30, the date set by the main political forces as the deadline for restricting weapons to official institutions.
The State Administration Coalition, which includes the most prominent Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish political forces, stressed during its meeting on August 5 the need to restrict weapons to the state, and considered the parties that carry out activities that threaten the security of the country outside the framework of official institutions as “outlaws and must be fought.”
The coalition warned that any armed activity outside the framework of the state after September 30 would be dealt with according to the anti-terrorism law.
Following this, Iraqi security and military forces raised their readiness level throughout the country, and the leave of a number of commanders and officers was cancelled, while security agencies began implementing field movements and exercises in anticipation of any emergency or friction that might develop into an armed confrontation.
Last week, Baghdad witnessed hours of security tension coinciding with threats by armed factions to retaliate against Saudi Arabia after strikes targeted Popular Mobilization Forces sites, before it ended with contacts and a dawn meeting between Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zubaidi and Badr Organization leader Hadi al-Amiri, which led to a mutual calming and opened the way for diplomatic action to address the crisis.
Al-Amiri later called on the “Islamic Resistance” factions to postpone any military response against Saudi Arabia and to prioritize “Iraq’s higher interest,” but he returned and stressed during a meeting with a number of Popular Mobilization Forces leaders the importance of maintaining a high level of readiness.
The plan to restrict weapons does not have a unified stance from the armed factions.
While some forces expressed a willingness to reorganize their military and security relationship with the state, other factions, including Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, announced their refusal to relinquish their military capabilities, and linked any discussion about their weapons to the end of the presence of foreign forces and ensuring the protection of Iraq from external attacks.
The September 30th date also coincides with the deadlines related to ending the international coalition’s military presence in Iraq, which some factions use as a basis for linking the future of their weapons to the withdrawal of foreign forces.
shafaq.com
