The next Iraqi government: Will Maliki break the cycle of controversy or sink into it?

The next Iraqi government: Will Maliki break the cycle of controversy or sink into it?

2026-02-12

Shafaq News – Baghdad
Amid a continuing political deadlock following the November 2025 elections, the debate is escalating inside and outside Iraq regarding the identity of the next prime minister, amid the Coordination Framework’s insistence on nominating Nouri al-Maliki, American warnings against reappointing him, and an internal division among Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish forces.

Between a discourse that focuses on “monopolizing weapons in the hands of the state” and building a unified army, and international pressures that speak of possible sanctions and the cessation of support, Iraq finds itself facing a delicate equation that combines national sovereignty with the need for regional and international acceptance, at a time when the public is waiting for a way out that will end the state of political paralysis.

Stage standards

In this context, Abdul Rahman Al-Jazaeri, head of the political body of the tribal movement, believes that the coordination framework “suggested that one of the criteria for the next prime minister should be that he enjoys regional acceptance,” noting that “politics by its nature requires dealing with changes, and this is normal.”

Al-Jazaeri adds to Shafaq News Agency that the current stage requires “a moderate and independent figure who is capable of talking with the American administration, who complies with the directives of the religious authority, and who communicates with regional partners,” in a clear reference to the complexities of the internal scene and its external entanglements, especially in light of the tensions between Washington and Tehran and their impact on the Iraqi scene.

This proposal comes at a time when Tehran, according to statements by Iraqi officials, affirms that it supports any candidate agreed upon by the coordination framework without adopting a specific name, a position that contradicts what the religious authority in Najaf announces regarding its support for the consensus mechanism, not for a specific person.

Maliki’s speech

For his part, Arif al-Hamami, a leader in the State of Law Coalition headed by al-Maliki, defends his leader’s recent speech, stressing that “all of al-Maliki’s speeches are sometimes misinterpreted by parties who want to distort the image.”

Al-Hamami told Shafaq News Agency that “Al-Maliki’s speech was not directed against any party, neither Shiite, nor Sunni, nor Kurdish, but rather it was a national and fatherly speech that reassured everyone, and it did not contain any tone of threat or sectarianism,” adding that Al-Maliki’s talk about the factions’ weapons came “by virtue of the fatherly and brotherly relationship with them, and some matters can be dealt with within this framework.”

Al-Maliki had stressed in his statements the need to “restrict weapons to the state, and to have one army that includes the sons of all components of the people under the leadership of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces,” considering that this “represents the basis for building a stable state,” and that stability “creates a safe environment that encourages investment, provides job opportunities for young people and contributes to completing the process of building and reconstruction.”

Al-Hamami also points out that Maliki “is holding on to his nomination, and so is the framework,” considering that backing down after the tweet by US President Donald Trump “would be a political setback affecting all components of the country,” stressing that “Iraq is a sovereign country, and its dignity must be preserved with strong stances.”

State logic

For his part, political researcher Abu Mithaq al-Masari believes that al-Maliki’s rhetoric has not changed radically towards the Popular Mobilization Forces or the armed forces, “but it is noticeable that his interest has increased towards the rhetoric of the state, given the sensitivity of the upcoming task.”

Al-Masari explains to Shafaq News Agency that “the logic of the state differs from the logic of the recipient of news. Al-Maliki today is a maker of news and opinion at the same time, and at a critical moment in the history of the country,” adding that “a statesman when he is in a position of responsibility is not like someone who is outside of it, and every word that comes out of him now is calculated precisely.”

Al-Masari points out that Iraq is going through a “critical and sensitive” phase, which necessitates caution in issuing statements, especially in light of American warnings against reappointing Maliki, which have reached the point of threatening to stop support, amid talk of Western messages warning of “severe sanctions” if common interests are not taken into account.

A rejected legacy

In contrast, political analyst Ahmed Youssef offers a more critical reading, arguing that Maliki’s change in rhetoric “did not come out of nowhere, but was an attempt to improve his image in front of his partners at home and in front of regional and international countries.”

Youssef tells Shafaq News Agency that Maliki’s first term (2006-2010) “was harsh on Iraqis,” while his second term (2010-2014) witnessed “sharp disputes with Sunnis and Kurds, demonstrations in Sunni provinces, disputes with Erbil, and a security collapse that led to the fall of several provinces into the hands of ISIS, displacement, and massacres.”

He adds that Maliki “represents an era rejected by a segment of the population both inside and outside the country,” noting that the United States has expressed explicit objection to his return, as President Trump warned that reappointing him could return Iraq to “poverty and total chaos,” referring to the period when ISIS controlled about a third of the country before “victory” was declared over it in 2017.

Youssef believes that the shift to a more moderate discourse “aims to win the favor of national political forces and send reassuring messages to neighboring countries, especially the United States,” but he emphasizes that Maliki “remains an unacceptable figure to national political forces and foreign countries.”

It is worth noting that the Coordination Framework, which announced on January 24, 2026, the nomination of Maliki based on the results of the November 11, 2025 elections in which the participation rate reached 56.11%, is still holding on to its candidate, despite the divisions within the Shiite bloc, and the Sunni and Kurdish objections that have disrupted the election of the President of the Republic, which is a constitutional entitlement that precedes the appointment of the Prime Minister.

shafaq.com