The Iraqi presidency: The Kurdish political deadlock threatens a “zero hour,” and political gridlock looms.
The Iraqi presidency: The Kurdish political deadlock threatens a “zero hour,” and political gridlock looms.
1-24-2026
Information / Report…
As the Iraqi Parliament nears the constitutional moment of electing the President of the Republic, political polarization intensifies both inside and outside the parliament building. With the Federal Court requiring a two-thirds quorum (220 members) for the president’s confirmation, fears of a deadlock are resurfacing, amidst a sharp Kurdish division and warnings of the repercussions of failing to reach a consensus. Regarding
the two-thirds
quorum, a difficult possibility, Diyar Aqrawi, a member of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), told Al-Maalouma that the major political forces theoretically possess the ability to secure the necessary legal quorum. Despite the emergence of new forces such as independents and the New Generation Movement as variables in the parliamentary equation, Aqrawi believes that the weight of the major blocs remains the most likely factor in fulfilling the constitutional requirements.
However, this optimism is hampered by the Kurdish political landscape; the two main parties (the PUK and the Kurdistan Democratic Party) have yet to reach a consensus on a unified candidate. Aqrawi warns that the lack of consensus could reproduce the 2018 scenario, when the two parties fielded competing candidates, potentially pushing the political process into a new deadlock that would necessitate the Federal Court’s intervention once again.
The Coordination Framework: “One-Way Diplomacy.”
For its part, the Coordination Framework seeks to define its role as a “facilitator,” not a “party,” in the Kurdish-Kurdish conflict. Aqeel al-Rudaini, a member of the Framework, confirms to Al-Maalomah that its members do not adopt any approach of interfering in the internal affairs of Kurdish parties or dismantling their positions.
According to al-Rudaini, the prevailing “political custom” within the Framework tends to consider the presidency as belonging to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), but he simultaneously emphasizes the need for Kurdish forces to demonstrate “greater flexibility” to avoid complicating the parliamentary landscape. Observers believe that the Framework fears that delaying the presidential election will lead to a complete paralysis in the formation of the new government, which explains its continuous calls to bridge the gap between Erbil and Sulaimaniyah.
Open Scenarios:
Parliament today faces a complex numerical equation; The presence of approximately 40 to 50 independent and new generation MPs gives these forces the “kingmaker” in either obstructing or passing a quorum. Conversely, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) is threatening to resort to “national space” (open voting within parliament) should an agreement with its rival partner fail—an option fraught with significant political risk.
With time pressure mounting, hopes remain pinned on a “last-minute breakthrough.” Will the Kurdish forces succeed in presenting a candidate who enjoys broad national acceptance, or is Iraq heading toward a new “constitutional vacuum” that will reshuffle the political landscape once again?
almaalomah.me
