The International Energy Agency expects a surplus in the global oil market.
The International Energy Agency expects a surplus in the global oil market.
2026-11-13
Shafaq News – Follow-up
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted on Friday that the global oil market would return to a surplus in the last quarter of this year, as Middle East exports recover at a faster pace than global oil demand growth, despite continued attacks on maritime shipping.
The agency provided more details about the remaining quantities that will come from an unprecedented withdrawal of oil from the emergency reserves of its member states, which was pledged last March.
The agency said that 71 million barrels of oil, including 15 million barrels of diesel, would be available by the end of February to alleviate the shortage of supply in the market.
The agency stated in its monthly oil report that oil supplies will average 105 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter, exceeding expected demand by 1.7 million barrels per day. The agency had previously predicted a supply deficit during the fourth quarter.
The agency added: “The oil market is showing initial signs of returning to balance, as oil supplies to global markets have exceeded demand for the first time since the outbreak of the Iran war.”
The International Energy Agency pointed to increased supply from outside OPEC+, along with increased production from the alliance.
The agency projected that production in the United States, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana would increase by 1.6 million barrels per day this year. It added that global supply is expected to rise by 6.6 million barrels per day in 2027, reaching 108.1 million barrels per day, including a 5.3 million barrel per day increase in production from the Gulf countries.
The agency had predicted that supply would exceed demand by about 3.8 million barrels per day in 2027, compared with a surplus of 3.94 million barrels per day in last month’s report.
This report comes after numerous indications of a recovery in exports by Gulf oil producers, which have been disrupted since the start of the war on February 28, using alternative solutions such as the so-called secret passage through the Strait of Hormuz, in which oil tankers disable tracking signals to avoid attacks.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said last Wednesday that the OPEC+ alliance, which includes it and other allies such as Russia, pumped 41.23 million barrels per day of crude oil in October, up 2.04 million barrels per day from September, equivalent to 97 percent of pre-war production.
Other analysts also predicted a return to oversupply despite the lack of a ceasefire and continued attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf. JPMorgan last week forecast a global surplus of 1.4 million barrels per day in October.
shafaq.com
