My predictions for current events in Iran and Iraq
My predictions for current events in Iran and Iraq
2026-03-21 07:55
Dr. Shwan Zangana
The events of the war on Iran that have taken place since the end of last month, as well as those that took place before it in the region, the statements of officials, and the lack of elements for the survival of the ruling regimes in the countries that have become an arena of conflict, whether they like it or not, have left me with an impression of what might happen in the region, and what I can deduce from expectations, which I have summarized as follows:
1- Eliminating what remains of the Iranian leadership, and the escape of some of them to carry out terrorist missions that will occupy the world for a period of time.
2- Attacking the headquarters and gatherings of security forces inside major cities, such as the Basij and the police, to encourage citizens to demonstrate, after weakening and dismantling these forces.
3- Landing Marines on the Iranian coasts and islands, especially Kharg and Qeshm islands, followed by ground operations to seize enriched uranium, if it still exists in Iran.
4- Arming and supporting armed Kurdish parties and enabling them to control cities in Kurdish areas in western Iran, despite Türkiye’s opposition.
5- A Turkish military invasion of some areas of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, and some areas inside Iranian territory, after the Turkish administration is certain of destabilizing the current Iranian regime, through the use of its military forces, and elements of ISIS and others, which it has prepared for this purpose for years.
6- A popular civil movement, supported by armed elements in several regions of Iran, against the ruling regime, pushing the remaining Iranian leadership to hand over power to Israel and reshape it.
7- There will be efforts to achieve a ceasefire, or to stop the war, or to achieve peace, and only the effort that Israel accepts will succeed, which is a radical change of mindset in the ruling authority, and turning away from the Shiite Persian project, whether the new ruler is from the same regime or from another.
8- Opening the Strait of Hormuz, and America’s supervision of it, and securing the movement of navigation in it, with the help of its allies, and imposing transit fees in favor of America, not to mention its share of Iranian oil.
9- Striking Iranian weapons manufacturing facilities and preventing military supplies from reaching Iran by striking its ports that receive these supplies in the Arabian Gulf and the Caspian Sea, in order to deplete its military strength and force it to surrender.
10- Striking the military sites of the Popular Mobilization Forces that pose a direct threat to US forces, their representatives, the Kurdistan Regional Government, and its administrative and economic facilities.
11- Eliminating all the leaders of the Popular Mobilization Forces and striking all its headquarters inside the main cities with the aim of dismantling its structure and dispersing its elements, in order to pave the way for the smooth entry of the groups and entities that America entrusted with the tasks of controlling the regime in Iraq after the collapse of the situation in Iran.
12- Mixed groups from ISIS and others will enter Iraq and seize power in Baghdad, similar to what happened in Syria. This entry will coincide with the Turkish military invasion of the Kurdistan region and areas in western Iran, and this will lead to a radical change in Iraq, with American, Israeli and Turkish assistance.
13- The Turkish-Kurdish problem will begin after the military invasion, the change of regime, and the Turkish role in it. This problem will continue until the Turkish elections, which will be brought forward to take place in the second half of 2027, in which Erdogan will win the presidency. After that, the foundation stone will be laid for a Turkish-Kurdish alliance in the region to guarantee Israel’s security.
14- The Kurdish position on the new situation in Iraq will be confused, in my estimation, due to the complex and contradictory factors affecting the situation on the one hand, and the lack of clarity of vision, in general, among most Kurdish leaders, on the other hand. It would be desirable if the Kurdish leaders could deal flexibly with the events and the actors in the region during this transitional phase.
15- The period from now until 2030 AD is a transitional period, and a preparation for establishing new systems that will lead the region until the end of this century, within a political map in which the region is divided ethnically and religiously.
16- I expect the Iraqi transitional government to be incompetent, based on current data, the reality of the situation, the marginalization of the elite of specialists, and the loss of sovereignty, which is something that must be addressed.
17- The transitional government’s focus will be on the economy, and related activities, reforms and development projects, which places a heavy burden on specialists, academics and businessmen, under exceptional circumstances.
This, in short, is the summary of my analysis and my expectations for the future of the situation in the region, the conflicts between the warring states, and their consequences for their people.
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