How is the economy being managed? Iraq is without a budget for the fourth time since 2003.
How is the economy being managed? Iraq is without a budget for the fourth time since 2003.
2026-06-13
Shafaq News – Baghdad
Iraq is entering an unprecedented financial phase, with increasing indications that the federal budget for 2026 will not be approved, at a time when the country is facing double pressures represented by the decline in oil revenues and the continuation of regional turmoil that has affected the movement of oil exports, which puts the government before the challenge of managing the economy through temporary spending rules for the fourth time since 2003.
Iraq is almost entirely dependent on oil revenues, which constitute more than 90% of public revenues, while public finances are facing increasing pressure after the failure to approve spending and revenue schedules, amid fears of the repercussions of this on investment projects, infrastructure, job opportunities and economic growth.
temporary spending
In this context, the financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Saleh, says that the financial policy during the year 2026 is still managed in accordance with the provisions of the Federal Financial Management Law No. 6 of 2019, especially Article 13, which allows spending at a rate of (1/12) per month of the expenses of the previous year in the event of a delay in approving the budget.
Saleh explained to Shafaq News Agency that this mechanism “enabled the continuity of public spending, especially salaries, wages, pensions and social welfare, in addition to financing basic investment expenditures and ongoing projects according to completion rates and available liquidity.”
But Saleh acknowledges that public finances are facing increasing pressure as a result of geopolitical developments and fluctuations in global energy markets, which has impacted oil revenues as the main source of funding for the public treasury.
He indicates that the government is currently moving towards preparing the 2027 budget within a reform framework that focuses on the efficiency of public spending, rationalizing operational expenses, protecting social programs, and giving priority to economically viable projects, as well as diversifying revenues and promoting digital transformation and administrative reform.
This comes after about 16 months of no budget schedules being approved, at a time when the three-year budget for the years 2023, 2024 and 2025 represented the last integrated financial framework for government spending before it effectively ended at the end of 2025.
Suspended projects and postponed development
For his part, economist Diaa Al-Mohsen believes that the greatest impact of the absence of a budget will fall on investment spending, because the budget is not just a financial document, but a tool for managing the state’s economic and investment activity.
Al-Muhsin tells Shafaq News Agency that the absence of a budget practically means difficulty in launching new development projects or expanding infrastructure projects, including roads, bridges, schools, hospitals, electricity and water networks, as well as delays in government contracts.
He adds that ministries and governorates will gradually lose the ability to plan in the medium and long term, while the contribution of government spending to stimulating economic activity will decline, which will directly affect the contracting, industry, transport and services sectors.
These concerns coincide with previous parliamentary data that spoke of more than 4,500 stalled projects across Iraq, some of which have been halted for years, at a time when experts believe that the absence of a budget will add new projects to the long list of stalled projects.
Recruitment under pressure
The impact of the lack of a budget is not limited to investment projects, but extends to the government employment file, which represents one of the most prominent outlets for absorbing graduates in Iraq.
Al-Muhsin confirms that appointment opportunities will be very limited, with exceptions likely to be restricted to specific sectors such as health, education, and security services, warning that this will lead to increased social pressures in light of rising unemployment rates among young people.
For his part, economic researcher Ahmed Eid says that spending according to the (1/12) rule ensures the continuation of salaries and basic services, but it does not provide the necessary flexibility to launch new projects or expand investment spending.
Eid adds to Shafaq News Agency that the absence of a budget imposes a state of financial uncertainty and limits the government’s ability to implement its economic plans efficiently. It also negatively affects companies contracted with the state and local and foreign investors due to the lack of a clear vision for future projects.
Accumulating risks
Experts believe that the absence of a budget presents a financial paradox. On the one hand, it leads to a decline in investment spending, which may reduce the financial deficit in the short term, but on the other hand, it weakens economic growth and leads to a decline in non-oil revenues related to economic activity.
Al-Muhsin explains that the deficit may improve numerically as a result of lower capital expenditures, but the economy will pay the price later through a decrease in productive capacity, a decline in job opportunities, and the continued dominance of operating spending at the expense of productive investment.
This comes at a time when public finances are facing additional challenges related to declining oil exports and regional market turmoil, which increases the likelihood of resorting to domestic borrowing to finance essential expenditures.
difficult economic situation
Financial expert Mahmoud Dagher believes that the absence of a 2026 budget is different from previous cases witnessed by Iraq, explaining that the House of Representatives did not approve the spending and revenue schedules during 2025, which is an issue he describes as having great technical and legal importance when applying the (1/12) rule.
Dagher told Shafaq News Agency that the country is currently going through “the most difficult economic situation,” adding that talking about appointments or expanding spending seems difficult at the present stage, because the priority is focused on securing salaries and some governing expenses by financing the deficit through the Central Bank.
He emphasizes that the main challenge is no longer achieving rapid economic growth, but rather reaching the highest levels of efficiency in spending and controlling expenditures to protect foreign reserves, which represent the primary line of defense for the stability of the Iraqi dinar and the financing of imports.
Public debt and borrowing
Concerns are growing about the impact of the absence of a budget on public debt levels, especially with continued pressure on oil revenues.
In this regard, Ahmed Eid says that the government may be forced to expand its domestic financing tools through levies, taxes and borrowing from local banks, warning that this path raises financial risks in the medium term if it is not accompanied by real reforms to control spending and enhance non-oil revenues.
These concerns are consistent with previous warnings issued by economic experts regarding the widening gap between revenues and expenditures, in light of the rise in domestic debt during the past months and the government’s reliance on exceptional financing tools to cover its basic obligations.
Managing the economy without a budget
In theory, experts say the government can manage the country through temporary spending rules, but with limited efficiency.
Al-Muhsin asserts that these rules allow for the payment of salaries, the continuation of public services, and the financing of some ongoing projects, but they do not provide an effective framework for managing economic development, because investment decisions become restricted and economic planning loses its clarity, while investors and governorates face an increasing state of uncertainty.
He summarizes the matter by saying: “The state can be managed, but development is difficult to manage.”
In contrast, economist Safwan Qusay calls for finding alternative sources of funding for investment projects outside the framework of the traditional budget.
Qusay tells Shafaq News Agency that continuing to spend according to the (1/12) rule is practically limited to operational expenses, which requires finding special mechanisms to finance investment projects through borrowing laws or partnerships with the private sector and investors.
It is proposed to expand the role of investment portfolios and investment bodies by offering infrastructure and service projects to investors in exchange for investment opportunities in the commercial, tourism and real estate sectors, in order to ensure the continuity of project funding and prevent its interruption.
shafaq.com
