Exceeding 5 million barrels per day… Does the oil minister’s statement reflect latent capacity or actual production?

Exceeding 5 million barrels per day… Does the oil minister’s statement reflect latent capacity or actual production?

2026-11-08

Shafaq News – Baghdad
The statement by Iraqi Oil Minister Bassem Mohammed Khudair, regarding the country’s oil production exceeding the 5 million barrel per day mark, has raised questions in oil circles about the accuracy of the announced figure, and whether it reflects actual production or available production capacity, as well as the confusion between the production ceiling set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the volume of oil exports.

Khodair said that Iraq’s production exceeds 5 million barrels per day, noting that there are talks with OPEC to raise the export ceiling, in light of the circumstances that Iraq has gone through during the past five decades, stressing the Ministry of Oil’s commitment to the ceilings set by the organization.

However, the statement raises questions about the nature of the ceiling the minister is referring to, since OPEC sets production quotas for member states but does not impose limits on oil exports. This makes the connection between exceeding production levels and the demand to raise the export ceiling need clarification. Exports are determined by the quantities produced after meeting domestic consumption needs to be met, as well as by available export capacity and infrastructure, and OPEC does not intervene in these matters.

In this context, Shafaq News Agency monitored observations and readings published by experts and specialists in oil affairs, which addressed the implications of the statement and the accuracy of the figures contained therein, especially the difference between production capacity, actual production and the quotas allocated to Iraq.

In an analysis by oil expert Furat Al-Moussawi, observations were raised regarding the wording that accompanied the Oil Minister’s statement, as he emphasized that OPEC sets crude oil production levels and not oil exports, noting that the approved level for Iraq is approximately 4.431 million barrels per day.

Al-Mousawi also raised questions about what is meant by exceeding the 5 million barrel per day mark, and whether the talk is about actual production or available production capacity, indicating that the statement does not include sufficient technical data to prove the achievement of actual and sustainable production of this size.

In the same context, oil expert Nabil Al-Moussawi explained that Iraq exceeding the 5 million barrel per day mark is related to the available production capacity and the ability to produce this quantity, and not necessarily to the actual production level achieved daily.

He explained that OPEC sets production quotas for member countries, but does not set ceilings for oil exports, noting that there is a difference between the country’s production capacity and the actual production and quantities that can be exported, which necessitates distinguishing between these levels when reading the statements of the Ministry of Oil.

For his part, oil expert Assem Jihad discussed the implications of statements regarding increased production, warning of their potential repercussions on global markets, given the sensitivity of oil prices to forecasts and signals issued by producing countries, even before actual decisions are made to increase supplies.

Jihad said that oil-producing countries deal very cautiously with such statements, while Iraq seems to be an exception to this rule, with repeated talk of increasing production and raising capacities, without sufficient appreciation of the repercussions of this on the market or consideration of the country’s obligations under the OPEC+ agreement.

He added that managing oil wealth is not limited to increasing production, but requires wisdom in managing statements, information, and the timing of their announcement, indicating that not everything that is planned is announced, and not everything that is announced serves the national interest.

Jihad questioned the point of boasting about increased production if the signals Iraq is sending to the markets may contribute to weakening oil prices and revenues.

While the minister speaks of production exceeding 5 million barrels per day and talks to raise the export ceiling, there remains a need to clarify the nature of the announced figure, and whether it represents production capacity or actual production, as well as to clarify what is meant by talks to raise exports, given that OPEC’s jurisdiction relates to determining production levels and not exports.

Following the statement made by the minister, the Ministry of Oil issued a statement shortly afterward confirming Iraq’s commitment to the production ceiling set within the OPEC+ agreements, which amounts to 4 million and 431 thousand barrels per day, in accordance with the decisions of the organization’s recent meetings, while continuing its efforts to raise this ceiling during the coming year in line with its growing production capacities.

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