An American report states: “Iraq represents the most important arena for Iran, and its project will collapse as soon as it withdraws from it.”

An American report states: “Iraq represents the most important arena for Iran, and its project will collapse as soon as it withdraws from it.”

2026-01-15 06:00

Shafaq News – Washington
An American newspaper described Iraq in a report as the “strategic center of gravity” for Iran, and the main platform through which it maintains its regional influence politically, militarily and economically, considering that Iraq is not just an arena for Iranian influence, and is more important than Syria and Lebanon, but is the arena itself .

The American newspaper “The Global Post” said in its report that if Iran is “expelled” from Iraq and forced to retreat to its borders, its regional project will begin to collapse, as its ability to arm and coordinate its proxy forces, including in the Levant, will decline, while its claim to regional hegemony will appear more fragile .

The report considered that this is precisely why Iran is not withdrawing from Iraq, but rather strengthening itself there, and the formation of the new Iraqi government has become the crucial test of this at the present time, as the political factions and the network of militias allied with Iran are positioning themselves to ensure that the outcome is in Iran’s favor, including through the Popular Mobilization Forces, which remain the backbone of the Iranian influence structure in Iraq .

The report argues that the militias in Iraq today do not need to overthrow the state, but only need the right of “veto” within it, allowing them to shape everything from the formation of the cabinet, security appointments, budget priorities, and judicial pressure, to drawing the boundaries of political debate, since the decisive competition is not always within the House of Representatives, but rather in the space controlled by the militias outside of it .

The report also considered that Iran’s influence in Iraq no longer depends primarily on overt intimidation, but rather is exerted through a system of parliamentary blocs allied with Tehran, security institutions formed by militia leaders, and economic networks linking Iraq to Iranian interests, including through energy, which is considered one of Iran’s most effective tools and which gives Tehran “constant influence,” as stated in the report .

According to the report, even when Iraqi leaders try to reduce dependence on Iran, Tehran’s allies within Iraq can delay this achievement, obstruct reforms, and paralyze state institutions. For this reason, Iraq represents “extreme strategic value” to Iran, as it provides it with three advantages that no other arena provides simultaneously .

The report explains that the first of these advantages is strategic depth, as Iraq provides access to the corridors linking Syria and Lebanon, and an operational space for the transfer of weapons, money and personnel .

The second of these advantages is economic assistance, by relieving Tehran of the pressure of sanctions through trade and financial channels, while the third of these advantages is the political cover that allows Iran to disguise its hegemony as a “partnership” operating under the flag of Iraq and the forces active in it .

The American report argued that if Iraq were to regain its true sovereignty by controlling weapons and independent institutions and ending the dominance of militias, Iran would lose what it described as its “most valuable foreign asset .”

He pointed out that the most interesting phenomenon now is not Iran’s resolve, but rather the absence of the United States, explaining that it continues to issue statements calling for stability, warning against escalation, and using diplomatic language about sovereignty .

However, the report argued that the data does not represent a strategy, as Washington lacks a vision to counter Iranian hegemony, there is no sustainable political approach to strengthening Iraqi sovereignty, and there are no clear red lines against militias taking over the state .

Referring to the American absence, the report said that it “is not neutral, it is tantamount to permission,” and that Washington has for years relied on reacting, whether it was responding to militia missile attacks, punishing individual leaders, or issuing warnings after crises, but it avoids the deeper political structure of Iranian influence .”

In contrast, the report says that Iran and its allies are doing the hard work to achieve control by building alliances, seizing institutions, normalizing militia power, and determining who governs .

The report concluded by saying that Tehran understands something that Washington has resisted acknowledging, which is that “Iraq is not a secondary issue, but rather the issue itself,” adding that Iraq does not have to choose between Iran or America, but rather it has to choose itself, and that a sovereign Iraq does not mean hostility towards Iran, but rather an Iraq with a specific relationship with Iran based on mutual respect instead of coercion and subservience .

The American newspaper report concluded by saying that if Iraq succeeds in asserting its sovereignty, the Iranian regional project will naturally decline, but if Iraq fails, it will remain the main channel through which Tehran maintains its ambitions .

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