An American report excludes the formation of the Iraqi government before the summer and warns against the factions and a “weak” prime minister

An American report excludes the formation of the Iraqi government before the summer and warns against the factions and a “weak” prime minister

2021-10-19 08:47

Shafaq News/ The American “World Politics Review” website did not rule out that Iraq’s “long and winding” path of negotiations after the October 10 elections between the powerful and armed blocs, leading to the swearing in of the new government, will continue until next summer.

The report, translated by Shafak News Agency, considered that “the results of the elections “allowed for the emergence of many important shifts in the internal balance of power,” adding that “the risk of violence erupting during the transitional period looms large on the horizon in a country where historically losing parties and factions have resorted to negotiation.” through violence and the threat to destabilize the state.

The report suggested the passage of months of negotiations and that, based on “the brinkmanship policy, another national consensus government will be formed with a weak prime minister, which will allow all parties, winners and losers, to share in the spoils of nepotism and corruption, and evade responsibility for the failure of governance in Iraq.”

The report pointed to what it called “important details, as the voter turnout was “historically low”, as 43% of registered voters cast their ballots, and there was a significant decrease in terms of preliminary numbers in the number of votes compared to the previous elections, from 10.8 million votes in 2018. to 9.6 million on October 10.

He added that the “big winner” is the Sadrist movement, which demonstrated its “political capabilities”, despite receiving fewer votes compared to 2018, adding that former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki performed better than expected and emerged as the main competitor to the Sadrist movement among Shiite parties. whose internal negotiations will pave the way for the process of forming a government.

The report also considered that the performance of the dissident and independent candidates who ran in the elections, despite threats of violence and boycotts, was reasonably good. The report quoted Carnegie Endowment researcher Harith Hassan as saying that “independent and opposition candidates may end up with a bloc of about 30 to 40 members in a parliament that includes 329 members.”

Pointing to the poor performance of the PMF’s candidates, which is partly due to the fact that their campaigns and candidate lists did not closely coordinate as they did during the 2018 elections, the report said that these factions, which showed a willingness to spread violence against the state, rejected the election results on the grounds of fraud, and they can close Baghdad and other regions have launched protests and violence against their political opponents, as they have often done in the past.

The report considered that any change in Iraq’s political fortunes would be meaningful, requiring results that are currently unlikely, adding that “the most important element for improving governance is a strong prime minister who has an independent political base and can act decisively,” which the last two prime ministers in Iraq lacked.

The report indicated that the Sadrists pledged during the election campaign that if they were victorious, they would nominate a strong prime minister from their current, but there is a possibility that they will end up breaking this pledge in the face of threats from the defeated parties, or even because they may prefer not to assume full responsibility for governing Iraq. .

The report pointed out that ending the spoils system that takes place between political forces to share the state’s wealth is the first step towards serious and sustainable reform. But the report considered that in order to achieve this, it would require the winners to dismantle a system in which they thrived, and therefore it is likely that any group that will be expelled from this system of spoils, will resist that and there will be bloodshed.

The report added that the Sadrists are “among the smartest manipulators of the system, as they have increasingly consolidated their access and share of patronage and resources with each successive government,” noting that the Sadrists, like their opponents, continue to possess a powerful militia, and that despite their initial support for the October 2019 demonstrations, they They turned against it later, and they are accused of carrying out acts of violence and assassinations against the leaders of the demonstrations.

In addition, the report considered that the Sadrist power base depends on the state’s sponsorship and the strength of the militias, which means that it is likely that it will not take a radical approach to dismantling corruption and investing in state institutions.

In conclusion, the report questioned whether Iraq would get an “elected opposition,” noting that the spoils system might swallow the main groups of protesters and independent candidates if a large number of them joined one of the existing alliances.

But the report pointed out that it is possible for some of them to retain their sincerity and act as a small opposition in parliament, and that their actions “could change the content of the Iraqi political discourse by creating a culture of principled opposition, and even pushing for real measures of transparency and accountability.”

shafaq.com