A message to the president: Between authorizing weapons and the pressures of a power vacuum
A message to the president: Between authorizing weapons and the pressures of a power vacuum
2026-06-06 01:05
Sirwan Saad
Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, You assumed responsibility at a pivotal moment, and as the youngest prime minister in modern Iraqi history, the hopes placed upon you extend far beyond the traditional frameworks of crisis management. The true challenge facing your project today lies not in securing parliamentary confidence, but in the ability to translate this temporary political support into lasting institutional stability.
Dependency and Interdependencies: A Reading of the Balance of Power Map
We have seen many readings and news reports that have shown that your arrival was not a coincidence, but rather the result of the intersection of international and regional interests imposed by the pragmatic language that you possess as a figure coming from the finance and business sector.
1. Regional and international balance
The Zaidi government enjoyed a rare arrangement:
American support: There was a clear welcome from Washington and the Trump administration for your steps, especially after the decline in opportunities for traditional figures and the retreat of options for the coordinating framework towards adopting a young leadership capable of speaking the language of development and the economy.
The Iranian position: On the other hand, it was accepted by the Iranian side and its local allies, who saw in your economic background a suitable way out to alleviate international tension and avoid crippling economic sanctions.
2. Internal dependence: The “weapons monopoly” equation
The most crucial factor determining your fate today is your relationship with the political forces that granted you your mandate. Your courageous step in establishing the “Supreme Council for Integrity” and your efforts to restrict weapons to the state have garnered unprecedented support.
It received explicit support from the leader of the Shiite national movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, who took the initiative to announce the disbanding of the “Peace Brigades” and their transformation into civilian institutions.
You received a remarkable mandate from the “Coordination Framework” and forces such as “Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq” which announced the commencement of disassociating its military wing from the Popular Mobilization Forces in line with your vision.
The reality is that this support is not a blank check; rather, it is a cautious political maneuver by traditional powers to maintain their governmental representation and avoid direct confrontation with international pressures.
Will you be able to overcome this crisis?
The answer to this question depends on how you manage two strategic issues that represent a bottleneck for your current government:
First: The ministerial vacancy crisis
Despite gaining the vote of confidence, the fact that nine out of 23 ministries remain vacant—including key portfolios like Defense, Interior, and Planning—paralyzes your government’s ability to function effectively. The continued power-sharing arrangements and disagreements among political blocs regarding the appointment of permanent ministers weaken your executive position and force you to govern by proxy, representing the first real test of your independence and your ability to assert your political will.
Second: Disengagement and the transfer of weapons to development
The greatest challenge is translating the political statements of faction leaders regarding “disarmament” into concrete reality on the ground. Your success in ensuring that the decision of war and peace rests solely with the state will pave the way for the influx of international investments that your economic project aspires to. Failure to do so, however, means a return to instability and the loss of the opportunity for economic recovery.
Post-Zaidi Iraq: Outcomes and Scenarios
The era following your administration of Iraq depends entirely on the path you pave for the country in the coming months. Analyses point to two possible outcomes, with no third option:
The first scenario: A state of development and institutions. Your success in completing the cabinet with competent individuals, enforcing the rule of law in the arms control file, and exploiting your extensive relationships from Baghdad to Erbil to resolve crises.
The second scenario: a return to political deadlock. Your submission to the pressures of power-sharing in the vacant ministerial posts, and the continued existence of the anti-corruption plan as a mere slogan without touching the big capital, will lead to the loss of international support and a return of street protests and disillusionment.
Mr. President, the current situation suggests you possess the pragmatic tools, regional acceptance, and domestic support necessary to navigate this transition. However, recent history in Iraq teaches us that the key lies in the prime minister’s ability to withstand entrenched interests once the actual implementation of reforms begins.
shafaq.com
