Khamenei’s assassination shakes Baghdad… What does the absence of the Supreme Leader mean for the factions and politicians in Iraq?
Khamenei’s assassination shakes Baghdad… What does the absence of the Supreme Leader mean for the factions and politicians in Iraq?
2026-03-01 08:06
Shafaq News – Baghdad
The Iraqi arena has witnessed rapid political and security movements since the announcement of the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The political scene remains somewhat murky, while armed factions have issued statements vowing a harsh response against the United States and Israel. Meanwhile, demonstrations have erupted near the Green Zone in the capital, Baghdad, and in the central and southern provinces of the country, amid tight security measures.
The news of Khamenei’s death sparked widespread anticipation in the region, particularly in Iraq, which has complex political, security, and economic ties with Tehran.
Iranian state television announced early Sunday that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had been killed in widespread strikes targeting the capital Tehran on Saturday morning. This announcement comes as Tehran is experiencing what have been described as the “most violent” airstrikes by the United States and Israel, amid a highly complex regional situation.
Observers believe that the absence of a figure who played a pivotal role in shaping Iranian policy for more than three decades may necessitate an internal restructuring in Tehran, both in managing regional issues and in addressing the escalating challenges with the United States and Israel.
During his reign, the influence of the Revolutionary Guard expanded and Iran’s regional role was strengthened through a network of allies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and other armed groups in the region, which placed the Supreme Leader at the heart of what is known as the axis of resistance. For Shiite currents associated with the doctrine of the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist in Iraq and Lebanon, Khamenei represented a political and religious authority that transcended the borders of Iran, making his absence a symbolic and organizational shock to Tehran’s allies as much as it is an earthquake within the institutions of the Islamic Republic.
The future of influence
In this context, Iraq stands out as one of the most prominent arenas affected by any shift in the structure of Iranian decision-making. Academic and political analyst Aqeel Abbas says that the nature of Iranian influence in Iraq during the next stage will largely depend on the identity of the Supreme Leader who will be elected by the Assembly of Experts, and whether he will lean towards an escalatory approach or a more pragmatic one.
Abbas, speaking to Shafaq News Agency, points out that the regional and international pressures facing Iran may lead to a review of some previous policies, especially in files related to military tension and the nuclear program.
He adds that the shape of the relationship with Iraq will be part of this review, whether through continuing the existing pattern of influence or reorganizing it to suit the new variables.
These estimates coincide with reports that spoke of internal arrangements to ensure the continuity of Iranian constitutional institutions during the transitional phase, including managing sensitive files until a new Supreme Leader is elected.
Iraqi decision
In contrast, the current close to the “coordination framework” – which brings together the ruling Shiite political forces in the country – rejects the characterization of Iraq as an arena of influence subject to an external decision, as political analyst Imad Al-Musafir believes that portraying Iraqi state institutions as a direct extension of Tehran “does not reflect the complexities of the Iraqi political reality.”
The traveler points out, in his interview with Shafaq News Agency, that the differences within the parliament and the government, including the failure to pass some controversial laws, reflect the existence of multiple internal balances, and are not the result of a single external alignment.
He affirms that the Iraqi government deals with regional developments from the standpoint of protecting national interests, regardless of the nature of the change in the Iranian leadership.
Observers believe that Iraq, by virtue of its geographical location and political structure, is affected by a number of regional and international factors, including relations with the United States and neighboring countries, as well as the relationship with Iran, which makes the situation more complex than can be reduced to a single factor.
The armed factions within the Shiite political framework represent one of the most prominent elements of the post-Khamenei era debate, as some of these factions declare their allegiance to the Iranian Supreme Leader as a religious authority, and maintain close political and security ties with Tehran.
Analysts believe that any change in the Iranian leadership hierarchy may raise questions within these factions about the nature of the next phase, both in terms of political discourse and the level of regional engagement.
Controlling the escalation
Amid escalating regional tensions, the possibility of military escalation remains, especially with the continued exchange of messages between Washington and Tehran.
In this regard, Hussein Al-Shehani, a member of the “Sadiqun” movement, the political wing of Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, confirms that the factions are closely following developments, noting during his interview with Shafaq News Agency that the decision of war and peace is linked to a number of national and religious considerations.
Observers believe that the Iraqi government’s declaration of three days of official mourning is an attempt to absorb the anger of the public and the factions, while maintaining the call for an “immediate halt to military operations” to spare Iraq the repercussions of the Iranian response that has already begun targeting American bases in Iraq and the region.
shafaq.com
