“The dollar won’t be the only impact”… Expectations of rising commodity prices and inflation rates in Iraq
“The dollar won’t be the only impact”… Expectations of rising commodity prices and inflation rates in Iraq
2026-01-06
Shafaq News – Baghdad / Erbil
On Tuesday, the head of the “Iraq Future” Foundation for Economic Studies and Consultations, economist Manar Al-Obaidi, predicted that prices of goods and commodities would rise, and inflation rates would increase in Iraq due to the new import procedures.
Al-Ubaidi stated in a post today that the Iraqi government, utilizing the ASYCUDA system, has begun implementing a tax insurance system for imported goods upon arrival, according to predetermined and publicly announced rates. A final tax settlement will be conducted at the end of the fiscal year, where the tax due from the company is calculated and deducted from the insurance amounts collected during the import process.
He explained that these three measures represent the core of what began to be implemented at the beginning of 2026. A question may be raised about the high customs tariff rates, and here it must be clarified that determining these rates is not within the powers of the executive authority, but rather within the jurisdiction of the legislative authority that approved the law in 2010. Therefore, any attempt to amend these rates should be directed towards the House of Representatives, not to hold the government responsible for existing laws.
Al-Obaidi attributed the implementation of these measures to the fact that the state has finally completed the project to automate customs and border crossings, a long-awaited project, the delay of which has benefited many over the past years.
He continued, saying, “As for the reason for the rise in the dollar’s price, it reflects an important aspect of the decline in currency smuggling and inflated invoices. With the tightening of controls and the implementation of these measures, those seeking dollars for illicit purposes turned to the parallel market to compensate for the shortage that occurred in the official market.”
The economist continued, saying, “Regarding the complaints of some traders about the difficulty of accessing the platforms or the weak response of some banks, this is expected in the early stages of implementation, and it will take time to accommodate all traders, organize their operations, and verify the safety and legality of the procedures.”
Al-Ubaidi pointed out that the rise in the dollar’s price will not be the only effect, as the prices of many goods, especially consumer goods, are expected to rise, which will lead to an increase in inflation rates.
He continued, saying, “In this context, there is an urgent need to take ‘surgical’ economic measures to increase non-oil revenues, despite the potential impact on citizens in the coming period.”
Al-Obaidi concluded that “the most important challenge facing the state remains maintaining the stability of prices for basic commodities, especially food, medicine and transportation, to ensure that the ordinary citizen is not burdened with the cost of these transformations.”
shafaq.com
