The specter of closing the Strait of Hormuz, threatening the global economy
Endorsement came the Iranian Shura Council ‘Parliament’ days before the bill threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers in response to European sanctions on Iran’s oil sector, to maximize the international concerns of the economic consequences that may result from the implementation of Iran’s threats to close the strait.
The Specter of possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vivid example of the relationship and intertwined correlation between international politics and the global economy, where often what drives the economy ‘bill’ wrestling of wills in the arena of international politics.
The experience of the Middle East in general, and in the heart of the Persian Gulf, that policy is often Soured economy over the last half century at least, comes the Iranian threat to close the Strait of Hormuz as a liaison in new succession of economic crises caused by tension and political instability regional and international, according to the newspaper ‘News’ in Kuwait.
Strait of Hormuz The, one of the most important waterways in the world and the most movement of ships, as it crossed between the 20th and thirty day average oil tanker oil tanker every 6 minutes in peak hours, loaded with about 40% of the oil transported by sea in the world.
In spite of the presence of greed in the Strait of Hormuz by the major powers throughout history, were not navigation through it one day Multi regional treaty or international, as it was subject to a transit system that does not impose conditions on the ships as long as the passage is rapid, and without interruption or threat to the countries located it, and each ship right and freedom in the traffic as long as it does not harm the safety of coastal States, violates the order or security.
Strait of Hormuz The, the only outlet for the riparian countries of the Arabian Gulf to the nations of the world, and on his way through all the exports and imports, including oil. Where it passes the strait about 90% of Saudi oil and 98% of Iraqi oil and ninety-nine% of the UAE’s oil and one hundred% of the Kuwaiti oil and country. Japan depends on the strait in the arrival of 85% of its oil, as well as adopt all of South Korea, India and China to the Straits in the arrival of more than 70% of its oil, while dependent upon the United States in the arrival of 18% of its oil needs.
In this light, the more important Strait of Hormuz in the international shipping, especially given the size and number of commercial ships pass by and the diversity of nationalities, and acquire the Strait of Hormuz, its importance from being considered like a Bottleneck at the entrance to the Persian Gulf connecting waters of Persian Gulf semi-enclosed and oceans major Indian Ocean, which is the only outlet of the Arab countries bordering the Persian Gulf except Saudi Arabia and the UAE and the Sultanate of Oman.
It is foreseeable geopolitical, gaining the issue of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, its importance by virtue of the fact that the Straits of legal terms is the international straits, so close, or disable the transportation of oil through it, may result in raising the price of oil increased significantly, which arranges tremendous pressure on global economies, where the mean that a virtual halt even for a short period of time to trade in the strait will be attached to a heavy toll of much of the world, as well as countries in the region itself.
Transit Were not days of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, the subject of an international or regional agreement, which has been shipping across the Straits subject to the transit system (transit), which does not impose conditions on the ships as long as it passed quickly and continuously, and does not represent a threat to the countries bordering the Strait.
From a legal point enters the Strait of Hormuz in the scope of international Straits that connect the two parts of the high seas or between the two economic Khalstin areas, so it is subject to the transit system, according to the United Nations Convention of the seas and not for innocent passage.
As can be seen from this, that the Strait of Hormuz is located between the territories of two states, Iran, Oman, at the same time connects the two parts of the sea high is the Gulf of Oman and Water Persian Gulf, so apply to him the case of the strait, which is located between the territories of two States shall be, in this case under the sovereignty of coastal States and competence by their territorial sea or to the median line of the stream water by widening the strait.
As the breadth of the strait between twenty and 32 nautical miles, it falls within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman, and because it connects the two parts of the high seas, it is subject to the passage of international shipping, transit, without the need to take time off from the two pre-coastal.
Thus, the Strait of Hormuz is in terms of international legal Straits subject to the transit system that does not need a ship, including the military, to the prior authorization to cross it.
In light of the above, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz or disrupt the transport of oil from which may lead to destabilization of the world oil market, pushing to a global crisis in energy, which will be repercussions serious producing countries and oil consuming both, as would cause a sharp rise in the price of oil, which arranges tremendous pressure on global economies, as well as with countries of the region damage expensive.
The possible consequences
Expected to result in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a not only a severe global economic crisis, but the price of oil will rise to more than $ 200, which in turn will be reflected on the prices of other goods, whether essential or a luxury.
And will develop the oil-exporting countries suffered a major setback because it will stop oil exports by about eighty% of Saudi Arabia and Chit’s exports by about 90% and about ninety-five% UAE, Qatar and Kuwait by about one hundred%, and even the export of Iranian oil would fall by about fifty%.
In addition, stop all imports coming to the Gulf region of China, Japan and South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and even if Iran did not provide the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it can impede the movement of traffic.
The scenario here is terrible to begin inspection of all giant oil tanker sailing through the western zone of separation, which would lead to suffocation of movement and disrupt the flow of oil.
In short, he is not entitled to Iran or other countries bordering the Strait of Hormuz and close in the face of international maritime traffic, or even just disable them in any way whatsoever, for any reason, or face international responsibility on the threat to international peace and endangering the global economy to crises, what makes them fall under the sanctions and measures provided for in the Charter of the United Nations in Chapters VI and VII, and that means the potential of the UN Security Council intervention in accordance with these international texts to prevent the obstruction of international navigation in one of the most important passages and Straits of water in the world.
And strategic perspective (political – military), it is in spite of Iran’s possession of the ability to close the Strait of Hormuz , they, probably, would not offer to do this step for several considerations, the most important implications of the catastrophic will catch the Iranian economy as a result of the closure, where the strait Ritha oil with its more than 65% of its oil exports to the world.
It remains to say that it is the responsibility of the Iranian political decision-maker of good understanding and knowledge of international and regional data so as to avoid disturbing the economies of the region if it continues to adopt a ‘policy’ edge of the Abyss is economically viable in any way.