The resignation of the Sadrist movement’s deputies turns the tables in Iraq… What does it mean?

The resignation of the Sadrist movement’s deputies turns the tables in Iraq… What does it mean?

6-13-2022

As soon as the private office of the leader of the Sadrist bloc Muqtada al-Sadr announced the closure of all its institutions except for 6 of them, and the resignation of his deputies from the Iraqi Parliament, the expectations and analyzes of observers and specialists regarding the expected scenarios began, after this decision scattered the papers of the political process.

Al-Sadr’s allies in the Sunni Sovereignty Alliance – which includes the “Progress” bloc led by Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi and the “Azm” bloc led by Khamis al-Khanjar – and the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Massoud Barzani, known as the “Save a Homeland” alliance, announced their understanding and respect for the decision to resign the Sadrist bloc from the parliament. Representatives, noting that they monitor the political scene and are continuing their dialogues.

Al-Khanjar expressed his appreciation for that decision, describing it as “the great sacrifice made by the Sadrist movement for the sake of the country and for reforming the political process.”

Barzani only commented on his Twitter account, saying: “We respect the decision of His Eminence Muqtada al-Sadr, and we will follow up on subsequent developments.”

For his part, Al-Halbousi confirmed – in a joint press conference with his Jordanian counterpart Abdul Karim Al-Daghmi today, Monday in Amman – that the resignation of the Sadrist bloc’s deputies is effective, and they will be succeeded by those who came after them in the number of votes in the elections, explaining that the parliament’s vote on the resignation of members of it is “limited to 3 Only cases: the first is a challenge to the validity of membership, the second is a serious breach of the rules of electoral behavior, and the third is the deputy’s exceeding the permissible absence limit,” noting that these cases do not apply to resignations.

However, Iraqi analysts and politicians believe that “despite the parliament’s acceptance of the resignations, parliament must still vote with an absolute majority in a public session after achieving a quorum.” Then he calls on the Electoral Commission to submit the names of the biggest losers to be instead of the resigned, and the names that will be raised from The commission is sent to the Federal Court for approval, and then sent to the House of Representatives for the new deputies to take the constitutional oath, and officially become deputies.

Expected scenarios?
Politicians and observers of Iraqi affairs, through their accounts on social media platforms, expected several scenarios for the political scene after the resignation of the Sadrist bloc, including the announcement of Parliament to dissolve itself and go to early elections, or escalation in the streets through demonstrations, warning that this may result in more of political instability in the country.

The prominent Iraqi politician, Tareq al-Hashemi – in a tweet on Twitter – saw that al-Sadr’s decision is a step back, and the contents and consequences of withdrawing from the political process are dangerous, and indicated that the attack is the best means of defense, and that the apparent may not reveal the hidden nor suggest the results.

The head of the Iraqi Consultative Council, Farhad Alaeddin, said through his Twitter account: “For the first time since the 2006 elections, Parliament is devoid of representatives of the Sadrist movement,” adding, “The movement withdrew from the governments of 2010, 2014 and 2018, but they never withdrew from the House of Representatives.” Aladdin stressed, “We are facing a new political era, and Al-Sadr is planning for the next, and how the political forces will deal with the new reality will determine the parameters of the next scene.”

“The resignation of the Sadrist bloc’s deputies will lead to an exit from the government formation crisis,” journalist Raed Al-Hamid wrote on his Twitter account. Al-Hamid added, “It is expected that the coordinating framework forces will announce that they are the largest parliamentary bloc, after the first session of the House of Representatives in which a president of the republic is elected, which is an almost certain possibility after the return of relations between the two Kurdish parties, the Democratic and Patriotic Union.”

The journalist writer, Falah Al-Mishaal, commented on his Twitter account, saying: “A political precedent that Al-Sadr set, which no one dared to set, to give a lesson in patriotism and the purposeful political role in the interest of the homeland and the citizen, and to dismantle the blockage crisis before which everyone stood empty-handed.” Al-Mishal added, “Al-Sadr confirms that he is the wisest, most confident and capable of ending the crisis and throwing the ball into the court of the crippled third.”

However, activist Bashar al-Sabti saw – on the other hand – that the goal of al-Sadr’s step was to reach the parliament’s dissolution and call for early elections, in which he would obtain a comfortable majority through which he would form a majority government, considering that the interest of the country has nothing to do with this decision, but rather it is an exclusive political interest of the current after The stubbornness of the coordinating framework that includes the competing Shiite forces.

And the head of the awareness movement, Salah Al-Arbawi, expected, through his Twitter account, that “the August 2021 scenario will be repeated,” noting that “they will come to him (that is, to Al-Sadr), to say: Resend the resignation, as they said: Resume the boycott,” in reference to To the mediation that took place by the Shiite blocs to urge Al-Sadr to reverse the decision to boycott the elections. Al-Arbawi added that “Al-Sadr is very smart, has the initiative and political action.”

Eight months after the early legislative elections, the main political parties in the country are still unable to agree on the next government, and each of them claims to have a majority in parliament, which includes 329 deputies.

Al-Sadr had said – in a speech last Thursday – “If the survival of the Sadrist bloc is an obstacle to the formation of the government, then all the representatives of the bloc are ready to resign from the House of Representatives, and they will not disobey me.”

The Sadrist movement – which heads the “Save a Homeland” alliance – with the Sunni Sovereignty Alliance and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, wants to form a majority government, given that its bloc is the largest in parliament (155 deputies).

As for the coordination framework (83 deputies), it pushes towards the formation of a consensus government of quotas, as has been the political tradition in Iraq for years.

Because of the political dispute and the inability of any party to resolve matters, Parliament failed 3 times to elect a President of the Republic, exceeding the deadlines stipulated by the Constitution. In order to overcome the obstruction of the political horizon, several options were put forward, including the dissolution of Parliament and the holding of new elections, but Parliament can only be dissolved by a decision of the Parliament itself.

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