Iraq: Anticipation of a political agreement to end the “blockage” before Eid and the cracking hits “Save a Homeland”

Iraq: Anticipation of a political agreement to end the “blockage” before Eid and the cracking hits “Save a Homeland”

4-24-2022

Iraq - Anticipation of a political agreement to end the blockage before Eid and the cracking hits Save a HomelandIraqi political sources suggested an expected “breakthrough” for the “political blockage” that Iraq has been experiencing since the elections last October, and the formation of the new government according to the principle of a “broad majority” with the participation of all blocs, amid news of a “crack” of the “Save the Nation” alliance. And the joining of independent “Shiite” deputies to the “Coordination Framework” alliance.

The Iraqi political analyst, Wathiq Al-Jabri, told Al-Quds Al-Arabi that “after the failure of three sessions to choose the president of the republic, and the failure of the tripartite coalition to obtain two-thirds of the members of the House of Representatives, to pass its candidate for the post, Riber Ahmed, the political forces, specifically the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Sunni Sovereignty Alliance, arrived , to the conviction that there is no room but to return to further negotiations.”
On the other hand, the Shiite “coordinating framework” put forward a series of initiatives and dialogues aimed at returning to the negotiating arena.
Al-Jabri added: “Al-Sadr held a political retreat for 40 days, and refrained from engaging in political dialogues during this period, but he made room for other political forces to further and intensify dialogues,” noting that “the political forces reached a conviction of the necessity of understanding among them, coinciding with the decision of the Commission The recent elections, which rejected the formation of the Sovereignty Alliance, included Khamis al-Khanjar and Muhammad al-Halbousi, which means that al-Halbousi returned to the leadership of the (Progress) coalition with only 45 deputies, which contributed to reducing the seats of the Triple Alliance to about 150 parliamentary seats.
According to the Iraqi political analyst, “the coordinating framework and its allies (the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Sunni Azm Alliance) are witnessing an increase in the number of its members, as well as a number of other independent representatives – specifically the Shiites – whose views are close to the coordination framework.”
He points out that “these (independent) representatives agree with the view of the framework, which sees that al-Sadr will not be able to form a government alone, and if a majority is to be formed, it must be a Shiite majority.” The political process in Iraq arose after 2003 based on a political “custom” to grant the position of President of the Republic to the Kurds, with the Shiites taking over the helm of government, and the Sunnis being given the presidency of the House of Representatives, Parliament.
“The tripartite alliance did not go beyond this political norm,” according to Al-Jabri, who pointed out that “the importance of a Shiite understanding to determine the position of the prime minister, as well as the understandings (Kurdish, Sunni and Sunni) to resolve the presidency and parliament.”
It seems that the chances of the tripartite alliance in forming a government, in cooperation with its allies, began to dwindle, coinciding with the approaching end of the “Sadr deadline” that ends after Eid al-Fitr.
Al-Jabri expects the emergence of some results of the political dialogues during the current days – before the Eid. “We may witness a political breakthrough.”
He went on to say, “The tripartite alliance is witnessing an internal rift that comes to the conviction of its parties of the necessity of partnership with the rest of the political forces, which requires that the next government be formed with a wide majority, offset by a simple opposition in Parliament.”
He considered this option “the only solution to the political process.” The fact that each party remains committed to its opinion will not lead us to results.”
On the other hand, parliamentary sources spoke to news websites close to the Shiite “coordinating framework” about the existence of an “undeclared split” within the Sunni “sovereignty” alliance, which is aligned with “Save the Nation” as a result of its complete acquiescence and linking its political decision to a political party within the tripartite alliance. In reference to the Sadrist bloc, she indicated that a number of coalition deputies will soon join the “coordinating framework.”
According to the same sources, “the stubbornness of the Triple Alliance and the failure to show any flexibility in finding a consensual situation to solve the political impasse and openness to the coordination framework, led to a state of alert within the coalition in general and within sovereignty (an alliance that includes Khamis al-Khanjar and Muhammad al-Halbousi) in particular.”
According to the information, “a significant number of Sovereignty Alliance deputies will be announced to join the framework very soon,” stressing that “there is an undeclared split within the Sovereignty Alliance as a result of its complete acquiescence and linking its political decision to a political party within the tripartite alliance.”
In a related context, the sources said that “small Kurdish parties that were loyal to the Kurdistan Democratic Party will also join the framework for the same reason.”
The Shiite “coordinating framework”, which is allied with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, led by Bafel Talabani, and the Sunni “Azm” alliance, headed by Muthanna al-Samarrai, sees the nearness of reaching a “breakthrough” to end the political impasse, especially after the entry of new players on the negotiating line, such as the new Iranian and American ambassadors. .
Local news websites quoted a member of the “framework”, Ayed Al-Hilali, as saying that “periodic data is likely to have an impact and a reason to bring the views closer.”
Al-Hilali pointed out that “there are leaks and proposals to keep the current government accompanied by a constitutional change represented by canceling the two-thirds majority and transforming the country’s system into a presidential instead of a parliamentary one.”
Al-Hilali considered that “these changes can take place if there is a national and social consensus on them in order to adhere to them.”
He also pointed out that “the deadline set by the leader of the Sadrist movement, which ends on the ninth of next Shawwal, is a violation of the constitutional terms, and it is not compatible with the Sadrist bloc’s reform project, and that it will place his bloc in the category of the first who violate the constitutional terms.”
He noted that «the tripartite alliance realized that it was unable to gather a two-thirds majority, and that they had no way but to sit with the coordination framework and agreement to form a government».
As for the political initiatives to end the crisis, he pointed out that “the initiative of the leader of the Wisdom Movement, in addition to the initiative of the coordination framework through the Five-Year Committee for Bridging Views, received wide resonance and great interest from the political forces, especially from the Sadrist bloc and the Alliance of Sovereignty.”
In the meantime, Al-Hilali underestimated the importance of the “initiative launched by the (independent) extension movement” and considered it “an unsuccessful detour, and that they had to go with the political party closest to their orientations rather than putting forward this initiative, especially since the political process resulted in two forces: saving a homeland and national steadfastness, and that An extension initiative that will not see the light and its mission is difficult.” The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan agrees with the information that warns of an imminent easing of the political crisis, but it blames the Shiite political forces for the extension of the political dispute towards the Sunnis and the Kurds.
Union member, Ghiath Surji, explained that “the meeting of the framework and the determination of the National Union and the Independents (last week) called for overcoming problems and accelerating the formation of the next government, and everyone is optimistic and open the doors of dialogue to resolve the crisis, which is a good initiative in the interest of the people,” according to media affiliated with the head of the Wisdom Movement. , Ammar al-Hakim.
He added, “Political stubbornness does not serve the people, and everyone must make concessions to reach a solution to break the political blockage,” hinting that “the political map will change after Eid al-Fitr within the tripartite alliance and other parties.”
“There is no communication with the Kurdistan Democratic Party, and there is a media escalation that has reached the level of leadership, and this will not serve the Kurdish people, and we said our doors are open to negotiate a mechanism to overcome the dilemma of the Presidency of the Republic,” he added.
He concluded by saying: “It is the understandings of the Shiite house that end the existing problems,” warning: “The exclusion of any political party will negatively affect all components and their entitlements, and what is happening today is the exclusion of the coordination framework by the Sadrist movement and the National Union by the Democrat.”

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