Iraq: The deepening Shiite-Shiite dispute threatens to repeat the elections…There is no Kurdish agreement on the presidency

Iraq: The deepening Shiite-Shiite dispute threatens to repeat the elections…There is no Kurdish agreement on the presidency

4-18-2022

Iraq - The deepening Shiite-Shiite dispute threatens to repeat the elections...There is no Kurdish agreement on the presidencyThe Shiite-Shiite dispute contributed to the deepening of the political crisis that Iraq has been witnessing for about 6 months, and the delay in forming the government and choosing a prime minister and president of the republic, casting negative shadows on the Kurdish political forces, which did not reach an agreement leading to the nomination of a single candidate for the presidency, while the political situation threatens. The crisis is the re-election of the legislative elections and the dissolution of the current parliament.
The Kurdistan Democratic Party MP, Majid Shankali, stressed that dissolving parliament is one of the proposed scenarios if the political impasse continues, but this “most dangerous” scenario was not seriously proposed among the leaders of the “Save the Homeland” coalition, which could implement it.

The political blockage puts the blocs between the arcs of consensus and the dissolution of Parliament

He said: “There have been many initiatives previously, starting with the initiative of Massoud Barzani, the visit of Al-Sadr, then the coordination framework initiative, and ending with Al-Hakim’s initiative, which refers to the selection of the Prime Minister from the Shiite majority, the President of the Republic from the Kurdish majority, and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, who was chosen from a Sunni majority.” . According to the official channel.
He added, “The Alliance to Save the Homeland, which includes the Sovereignty Alliance, the Sadrist Bloc and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, will have a unified opinion on any initiative launched, and certainly everyone is working to resolve the blockage and political disruption. This blockage cannot continue, and it must be exited in any way and with multiple scenarios, one of which is to go To consensus or to go again to the rerun of early elections, and all of this is permissible, and that serious political dialogues are still very slow.”
He continued, “The current presidencies cannot continue in this way. That the current government is a caretaker government, and that the President of the Republic practices his work according to the decision of the Federal Court from an organizational point of view only, he does not have full powers, and the government does not have full powers except by virtue of the day-to-day conduct of business.
He continued: “If the political blockage continues, the “Save the Homeland” coalition, which has an absolute majority of parliament members, may discuss the most dangerous scenario, which is dissolving the parliament and holding early elections with their difficulty, given the lack of a law for that or who will supervise them, especially since The government does not have the full power.”
And he indicated that “dissolving Parliament is one of the scenarios put forward if the political impasse continues for a long time, and that the Save the Nation Alliance can dissolve Parliament, it needs 165 votes, while the “Save the Homeland” alliance has 170 seats in Parliament, but this scenario was not seriously proposed. Among the leaders of the Save the Homeland Alliance, even if it was proposed by some politicians from the Sovereignty Alliance and the Democratic Party, and it may even be raised by some politicians in the Sadrist bloc, but at the level of the leadership of the Save the Homeland Alliance, it has not been discussed and chosen in a serious way as a future scenario in the event of the political blockage continuing.”
He stated that “the issue is not related to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Kurdistan Democratic Party. In 2018, the same problem occurred. A dispute occurred between the Democrat and the National Union, and we went to the House of Representatives, and Barham Salih was chosen,” explaining that “the main dispute is a dispute within the Shiite house. And this is an argument, because today there is no consensus between the two Kurdish parties and it will not happen, because the PUK will go with the framework in what it chooses.”
He pointed out that “the issue of sovereign positions is not quotas, especially the position of minister and other positions. They are electoral entitlements, and they are political positions with full and absolute entitlement, and that real quotas are when positions are distributed within ministries from the deputy minister to the head of the department for the same party that owns the ministry. Here lies the quota Therefore, the diagnosis must be accurate, and that the other issue is us and the National Union in the beginning and before choosing Hoshyar Zebari to be our candidate, it was possible after Barham Salih’s concession that there was some kind of consensus, but their insistence on Barham Salih and then our choice of Hoshyar Zebari, so what agreement with The Democratic Union is too late and gone.”
He explained that “the two-thirds quorum is a main guarantor in the constitution, and some say that there is another party that set the two-thirds quorum. Rather, the two-thirds quorum is a guarantee for the components that the largest component does not have the position of the presidency and the prime minister alone, and then puts the speaker of parliament, Sunni and Kurdish, because he is loyal and followed For the largest bloc and the largest component, but the presence of a two-thirds quorum in choosing the president of the republic prevents any party or component from monopolizing power in Iraq, and that trust between components and political parties has not reached the stage of maturity in order to rely on the absolute majority, and that the brothers in the largest component have 183 deputies In Parliament, had it been according to this system, they would have been able to install the President of the Republic, the Speaker of the House of Representatives and also the Prime Minister without even returning to the Kurds and Sunnis.”
Meanwhile, Salah Al-Arbawi, head of the Awareness Movement, presented 4 scenarios regarding the current political crisis. He suggested that the current government would be maintained, as it is the most in line with the current situation and the most realistic solution, and pointed to the possibility of early elections.
The proposals included holding “early elections, and this requires the dissolution of the House of Representatives, and this is possible with difficulty, but it collides with (the failure to amend the electoral law as indicated by the court, the lack of readiness of the commission, and the people’s reluctance to participate),” referring to “a new consensual government, regardless of the The form and appearance of consensus, this is possible, but it collides with al-Sadr’s desire to take the entire Shiite share and exclude his opponents, which is a return to square one and the loss of responsibility.”
Among the proposed scenarios, according to Al-Arabawi’s clarification, “a national majority government, the three majorities: Al-Maliki’s 2010-political majority, Al-Hakim’s 2014-national majority in which the Shiites are half plus one, Al-Sadr’s majority 2021-national, the majority of the three leaders.
Regarding the national majority government, Al-Arbawi said that it is “difficult, but not impossible, collides with the framework third, and clarifies responsibility on the one hand, but creates turmoil on the other.”
And the last proposed solution, according to Al-Arbawi, is “to keep the old consensus government, and this means keeping the 2018 ruling equation in place (Al-Fateh-Sairoon) and keeping the current presidencies (Al-Halbousi, Saleh, Al-Kazemi) with ministerial adjustments made according to the new electoral volumes.”
He considered that “the last scenario is the most realistic solution and in line with the current circumstance, and its defects are the same as those of previous consensual governments.”
This coincides with the start of protests in the federal capital, Baghdad, and a number of other cities in the country, calling for the formation of the government and the provision of services.
The activity of the protest movement, once again, heralds an “Iraqi Spring” that may topple the current political system, according to Baqir al-Zubaidi, the former minister and head of the “Enjaz” movement.
In a press statement, he added, “a distinct popular movement began in Baghdad, Hilla, Karbala, Sulaymaniyah and other provinces; To demand the speedy formation of the government, the fight against corruption, and the treatment of the crippled service system in the governorates after more than 6 months have passed since the end of the elections, and stillness exists regarding the selection of the President of the Republic, which is the objective approach to dismantling the complex of the current crisis.
Al-Zubaidi added that “the political forces responsible for forming the government should be aware of the danger of this movement, which will not stop at the limits of these demands, and may go beyond it to disrupt the daily life of society and the state by staying in the street, continuing to demonstrate, and going to the demand (the people want to overthrow the regime), so we will be in front of a spring. New Iraqi”.
In the north, Lahore Sheikh Janki, the joint (frozen) president of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, sent a letter to his party and the Change Movement, urging them to resort to the federal capital of Baghdad to resolve their differences.
In his clarification, Janki explained: “I abandoned friends in the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) a long time ago because they made up their minds to sacrifice the people for the sake of their party, but my message is directed to my party (the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan) and the Change Movement.”
He added: «Currently, you are subject to a difficult test, if, after the decision of the Federal Court and the message of the Iraqi Oil Ministry to the Kurdistan Regional Government, you insist, like the Kurdistan Democratic Party, on repeating the experience of oil in gas fields, be sure that I will be the first to confront you, and I will not allow I will never surrender the last breath of my people to the enemies of my people under the pretext of the economic independence of the region.”
He continued, “Now that we all know that the key to saving our people from all the problems we faced is only Baghdad, but we see that the rulers of this region visit the neighboring capital from time to time, but they are not ready to visit Baghdad once and for all, as they know very well that the solution exists.” Only there.”
He pointed out that “I reached despair for a long time with friends in the Kurdistan Democratic Party, because they are honest in politics, and decided to sacrifice the people for the sake of their party.

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