Iraq: The return of the “political blockage” … and the possibility of early elections looming

Iraq: The return of the “political blockage” … and the possibility of early elections looming


Iraq - The return of the political blockage ... and the possibility of early elections loomingAfter a short break following the phone call made by the leader of the “Sadrist movement” Muqtada al-Sadr to the leader of the “State of Law” Nuri al-Maliki, the situation returned again to the stage of the so-called “political blockage.”

Al-Sadr, who called al-Maliki, thus raising the practical veto against him, put forward, according to what is being circulated in closed rooms, the name of his cousin Jaafar Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr as a candidate for the position of prime minister; This confused the choices of the “coordinating framework” forces, which describe the Sadrist candidate as “rude.”

The “coordinating framework” includes a group of parties and alliances that were not united before the alliance except by their agreement to reject the election results, and it is now united by their standing against the tripartite alliance that brings together Al-Sadr with the Sunni “Sovereignty Alliance” and the “Kurdistan Democratic Party” led by Massoud Barzani.

While the “coordinating framework” forces studied al-Sadr’s proposal to nominate his cousin, they could not reject it for “moral” reasons related to the fact that his father was the Shiite authority and founder of the “Dawa Party in Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr, who was executed by the previous regime in 1980, and is considered a reference to the forces of Shiite political Islam.” . These forces also began to look at the matter from the angle of their ambiguous relationship with Muqtada al-Sadr, the leader of the “Sadr movement”, not with Jaafar al-Sadr, the current ambassador in London and the son of their most important reference, Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr, who is currently a candidate for prime minister.

So; The proposal, which al-Maliki took care of to convey to Muqtada al-Sadr via a phone call on behalf of the “coordinating framework” forces, stipulates the necessity of discussing the issue of the most numerous bloc before agreeing to the name of the candidate.

Al-Sadr does not want to retreat from his commitment to the alliance with the Sunnis (the Alliance of Sovereignty), which includes Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi, businessman Khamis al-Khanjar, and “the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Masoud Barzani, but, at the same time, he is under pressure from the inability of his alliance to pass Barzani’s ally candidate for the post of President of the Republic.

In order to break the deadlock in the relationship between the two Shiite blocs (“The Current” and “The Framework”), al-Sadr’s initiative came personally to lift the veto against al-Maliki, while he rejected a similar initiative by his ally, Massoud Barzani.

Now, and the Iraqi parliament has set the day before yesterday, the twenty-sixth of the current month of March, a session to elect a new president of the republic, the incompatibility between the two Kurdish parties, and the presence of what has become known as the “blocking third” in both coalitions, makes it difficult to proceed with the elections. The election of the president from among two candidates, the current president, Barham Salih of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, and Riber Ahmed of the Kurdistan Democratic Party.

Indications so far confirm that there has been no breakthrough in the position of the two Kurdish parties. This means that they go to the parliament session through the competition between the two candidates, so that each candidate bets on his alliance to win, and in the event that he does not succeed, bets on him to disrupt the passing of the competing candidate. There are two issues raised from today until the date of the session scheduled for the 26th of this month. The first is the ongoing investigation into the Iranian bombing of Erbil, claiming the presence of the Israeli Mossad, and the other is the possibility of a positive development in the relationship between the “Sadr movement” and the “coordinating framework.” In the event that investigations prove that the Iranian strike targeted a Mossad headquarters, as Tehran says, Al-Sadr will be free from any commitment to him with Barzani, and this practically means the end of the tripartite alliance, and therefore the chance of the Patriotic Union candidate Barham Salih will be most likely.

However, if the situation remains as it is, Parliament will not be able to elect a new President of the Republic. This will lead to the identification of another session that will not be better than the previous one; Which makes the possibility of going to the dissolution of Parliament and setting a date for new early elections a viable option. For its part, the Federal Supreme Court had asked Parliament to resolve the constitutional dates within a short period; This means that the option of sessions and postponement does not remain open indefinitely.