“Mission Impossible” .. Al-Maliki as prime minister for a third term
“Mission Impossible” .. Al-Maliki as prime minister for a third term
Shafaq News/ Any independent observer can envy the leaders of the “State of Law” coalition for their excessive confidence in expressing that Nuri al-Maliki is the most qualified and worthy to return to the presidency of the Iraqi government, and secondly, their ability to express the certainty that the coalition is able to achieve a comfortable victory in the October 10 elections. next.
The results of the 2018 elections do not seem to encourage such over-optimism, as the “State of Law” came fourth with 26 seats, and was comfortably preceded by the Sadrist-led Sairoon Alliance (54 seats), the Al-Fateh Alliance led by Hadi al-Amiri (47 seats), and the Al-Fateh Alliance led by Hadi al-Amiri (47 seats). Al-Nasr led by Haider Al-Abadi (42 seats).
Many also believe that the difficult conditions that led to the exclusion of al-Maliki from heading a third government in 2014, are still chasing his legacy in political work, and may prevent his use to occupy the position of the highest executive authority in Iraq. There are two main issues that his opponents consider against him, namely the fall of a third of Iraq’s lands under the control of the ISIS occupation overnight, and secondly, the spread of corruption, which placed Iraq in third place in the world.
However, some leaders of the “State of Law” consider that al-Maliki has made more achievements for Iraq than others after him, and is therefore more deserving of returning to the position, a security that apparently faces several conditions, including the position of the supreme Shiite authority, and his gaining the support of parliamentary blocs Great, and knowing the destination of Iranian support, especially after the recent visit of the current Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi to Tehran and his meeting with the new Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi.
However, al-Maliki’s supporters began early in the propaganda campaigns in support of him, according to promotional ideas, including that he is strong and able to contain tensions with armed factions, and between some political forces, and provide basic services to citizens, which witnessed a deterioration in the years in which he left power.
But it is clear that al-Maliki and his supporters are also betting on their ability to attract new votes if they will be allowed to lead a government after the October elections, by wooing the voices of the large reluctance to cast their votes, which was large in the 2018 elections, where the voter turnout was about 44%. Only as was officially announced, and they are also betting on withdrawing votes from the shares of other blocs such as “Al-Fateh”, which mainly represents the Popular Mobilization factions, a bet that may contradict what the forces close to Iran aspire to.
But observers believe that the events in Iraq since the 2019 demonstrations, and the accusations leveled at the factions of confronting them with violence, in addition to the tensions within the Fatah forces, may help al-Maliki to attract additional votes from the electorate.
Al-Maliki had obtained the highest votes in the 2014 elections, but the objections of the supreme Shiite authority, Ali al-Sistani, and some political forces, forced al-Maliki to apologize as part of a political settlement that brought him to the position of Vice President.
According to MP Muhammad al-Sihoud, who is close to al-Maliki, “The latter provided a lot for the country during his presidency of the government for two consecutive terms and in various health, economic, educational and reconstruction fields. Therefore, as members of the former State of Law list (the leader’s trust now), we believe that he is more deserving of prime minister if his list succeeds in winning votes that qualify him.
Elections and party size
Chihod told Shafaq News Agency, “The results of the 2018 elections are not a criterion for measuring the size of that bloc or the weight of that party in the Iraqi street, given that the majority of disgruntled voters showed great reluctance to participate, which negatively affected the overall election results, and we hope according to the stage’s data. And after our masses became convinced of the need to expand the volume of their participation in the electoral process, to obtain more seats.”
He considered that “the upcoming elections will reveal to the parties and blocs their true size or weight in the Iraqi street if the electoral presence is available, given that the Iraqis who went out in mass demonstrations in 2019, calling for early elections, this is their only chance to make the desired change and the results of each electoral list or alliance translate its weight. to his audience.”
The “Leader’s Trust” list is made up of 72 candidates to represent it in the upcoming elections, distributed over all governorates of the country, with the exception of the Kurdistan Region.
According to Chihod, the majority of the candidates are qualified and technocrats and come from 9 political entities, including the Dawa Party, the Irada Movement, Al-Bashaer, and the Iraqi Turkmen Gathering, as well as some former deputies.
Chihod indicated that “the results of the elections will play a role in drawing the map of future alliances to determine the identity of the leader of the next stage, and Nuri al-Maliki remains the only candidate for the “leader’s trust” if he enters into other alliances,” stressing that “we do not have a red line on any bloc or current to ally with him from For the formation of the government if we achieve advanced results.”
He considered that “the rule of law will be the weight of the next alliances.”
Al-Sihoud called on Al-Kazemi’s government to provide a security environment that ensures the smooth running of the elections without affecting the voter’s freedom or depriving his will, recalling that this government “was formed in order to organize early elections, and therefore its work should focus on that.”
The State of Law Coalition, a political alliance headed by Nuri al-Maliki, split from the Iraqi National Coalition, which had brought together all the Shiite forces due to differences with other currents, including the Sadr movement.
Back to “Impossible”
But personalities who defected from the “State of Law” told Shafak News Agency, “It has become difficult for al-Maliki to return to power again, and all data suggest the latter’s decline in popularity with the Iraqi street, as well as his intersection with political parties that have weight.”
Informed sources said that “there is still an objection from the supreme religious authority to the person of al-Maliki, as the country entered into a cycle of internal and external conflicts, the most severe of which was ISIS’ control over a third of Iraqi lands, and Mosul, Anbar and Salah al-Din provinces fell into the hands of ISIS at the time, which required the authority to intervene to announce the fatwa of sufficient jihad.” .
She added, “If we exclude the scenario of a veto of reference on al-Maliki, there are other parties that refuse his return, most notably the Sadrist movement, which reluctantly agreed to extend his mandate during the 2014 elections.”
It is noteworthy that al-Maliki had launched a military campaign under the name “The Knights of the Knights” against the “Mahdi Army” of the Sadrist movement in the year 2008, which is the only one led by the Iraqi security services against Shiite militants. Since that time, Maliki entered into a rivalry with the Sadrists.