US report: Biden’s ploy in Iraq may turn against him
US report: Biden’s ploy in Iraq may turn against him
Shafaq News/ “Foreign Policy” magazine said that Joe Biden’s designation of the American forces in Iraq as non-combat forces will not prevent the Iranian-backed factions from targeting them, and argued that the move may be dangerously counterproductive.
And she noted that last week at the White House, US President Joe Biden told Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi that US combat forces would withdraw from Iraq by the end of the year, but that US forces serving in non-combat roles, such as training, advising and providing intelligence to security forces Iraq will remain.
Although this move appears significant at first glance, the truth is that the vast majority of the 2,500 US troops in Iraq have been serving in non-combat roles for more than a year.
According to the magazine, the announcement of the so-called withdrawal was in fact revolving around the change of names and not politics, and was aimed at helping Al-Kazemi appease the elements who oppose the American presence in Iraq, especially the powerful Iranian-backed Shiite factions and their supporters among the Iraqis, who will vote in the national elections in Iraq. October.
While Biden’s announcement was a well-intentioned gesture, this ploy did not fool everyone. In two statements issued shortly before and after the Biden and Al-Kazemi meeting, the “Resistance Coordination”, which includes the most allied factions with Iran in Iraq, announced that it would not be deceived by the ploy of returning label.
She described the announcement as “fraud” and “manipulation” aimed at “prolonging American hegemony,” stressing that it would not accept a single American soldier on Iraqi soil under any pretext, whether combatant or non-combatant, and if they did not leave, the factions threatened to do “everything.” In order to cleanse the Holy Land of the abomination of the occupiers.
The magazine argued that Biden needs to take these threats seriously. Since taking office six months ago, there has been a significant escalation of attacks against Americans in Iraq, with Iraqi militias targeting American forces in Iraq and across the border in Syria more than 30 times since Biden took power. , including at least 12 attacks in July alone.
The increase in the number and frequency of attacks was not only, but the attacks became more complex, as the factions are now using advanced and accurate drones provided by Iran, and they were able to evade American defenses.
The first such attack in April targeted what was supposed to be a secret CIA hangar in Iraqi Kurdistan, underscoring the gradual change in the threat level now faced by US forces.
Fortunately, the number of casualties was low, and no Americans were killed, but it is reasonable to believe that as the weapons used escalate in severity and complexity, Iran and its proxy factions may increasingly aim to kill Americans, not just harass them.
And she continued: “The Iranians were clearly testing Biden, and they seemed to have grown emboldened after seeing the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, and how keen Biden was to return to the Iran nuclear deal. facing China.
“From Iran’s point of view, Biden appears to be an overzealous buyer entering the market, so there is nothing to prevent it from seeking greater concessions in the nuclear negotiations while continuing to advance toward the development of nuclear weapons, and why not increase attacks on US sites?” In Iraq to see if Biden can be pressured to force him to flee?
Yet the Biden administration appears to be beginning to realize that the Iranians view it as easy prey. It is reported that Biden is a veteran of the foreign policy game enough to know how dangerous it is.
In an attempt to change Iran’s view of his administration, Biden twice authorized retaliatory strikes against militia positions on the Iraqi-Syrian border, but these attacks were not successful in their main goal, and after the second strike, Iran’s proxies responded by launching the largest attack on American forces since Iran launched a barrage of ballistic missiles on it following the assassination of former President Donald Trump of Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad in January 2020.
And it seems that effective deterrence against Iran will not come cheap. When the most powerful country in the world responds to dozens of potentially deadly attacks on its soldiers with two small strikes in the desert, this shows that the United States is deliberately avoiding any real confrontation, and this tells Iran that it has escalatory dominance on the Iraqi stage. And that if its proxies continue to press, Biden will likely eventually back down rather than fight back.
Rather than interpreting Biden’s retaliatory strikes as a warning message of the worst to come if Iran does not stop, it is likely that Iran and its proxies have concluded that he is bluffing and on the verge of withdrawing completely, as Biden’s response to the attacks appears to have been a provocative one, which is worse than failure.
The magazine concluded that “if Biden believed that his diplomatic ploy with Al-Kazemi had a chance of deceiving Iran and causing it to withdraw, then he should prepare for shock.”
It is likely, according to the magazine, that this step will backfire, as Iran and its proxies have realized that the United States has reduced its forces in Iraq, and as the factions’ reaction to Biden’s announcement demonstrates, the second half of 2021 is likely to be more dangerous for American personnel in Iraq. Iraq first.