Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions 2-27-18
Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions 2-27-18
2-27-2018 Newshound Guru Enorrste …Once the ball starts rolling it will proceed quickly to a value that we can all enjoy. The simple fact is that there are now a vast majority of factors in our favor versus the few left that seem to be holding this back. ISIS is decimated in Iraq; the banking structure is becoming more internationally connected; interest in investing has risen even if actual investment has not yet begun; the CBI has finally tackled the problem with the spread (this is really key); the CBI is officially on the record now for some time to move toward a floating currency; talk of ending the auctions has risen to the point that it will become a reality soon; the IMF is trustee over the CBI and is on record to move Iraq into the real world; etc. I will be surprised if we don’t see the float begin sometime this year.
2-27-2018 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Funny how nobody cared what was in print from the IMF for years and finally now think they may be something to it. Despite the daily rv calls, the IMF is running the show. And until the CBI gets in compliance with them, there is no Article VIII. …an IMF document states that once they get the spread within 2% they must hold that for at least 90 days. That is documented. The last Article IV had a comment about compliance…specifically that they did not recommend accession without meeting that criteria. I did state that i though they might wave the timeframe (90 days), but who knows. …it was not recommended to wave the 2% …which they have not…but since the world is waiting, maybe the IMF will wave the timeframe. [MAYBE ONE DAY soon.] Maybe…Hopefully yet this year. It’s up to Iraq. We know the IMF wants them in.
2-27-2018 Newshound Guru Kaperoni From the IMF last Sept… “25. The government will gradually remove remaining exchange restrictions and a multiple currency practice (MCP) with a view to eliminating exchange rate distortions. Such a move towards acceptance of the obligations under Article VIII of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement will send a positive signal to the investor community that Iraq is committed to maintain an exchange system that is free of MCPs and restrictions for current international transactions and thus facilitate creation of a favorable business climate.” So it’s coming. That should perpetuate a new exchange rate regime as well causing the dinar to rise. …I believe once it starts, it won’t take more than a year to rise to a value we are comfortable with.
2-26-2018 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Article: “A new drop for the dollar today in Iraq” Quote: “The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar continues to decline for the second month in a row. The foreign exchange markets in Baghdad, on Monday morning, the decline in the dollar exchange rate against the Iraqi dinar. The market price in the Kifah Stock Exchange in Baghdad was 1220 dinars per dollar, or 122 thousand dinars for one hundred dollars.” …All we can do is wait and see each day what they report for the auction. 1220 is close…let’s give it another week and see if they are in compliance.
2-26-2018 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Article: “Alnasiri: Implementation of the Central Bank’s strategy contributed to the improvement of the dinar’s exchange rate against the dollar” They had a few months with the UST and IMF to figure out a plan to reduce the spread. It seems likely they are on track to compliance. We all know the investment won’t come if they do not get the market economy going. Time is running out.
2-26-2018 Newshound Guru MilitiaMan Quote: “…MEMO WAS SEND ON 02/18 TO BANKS REGARDING 02/25!!! DELTA” Well well well. The Final Notice was given to stop selling at the old rate, imo…
2-26-2018 Intel Guru RayRen98 [Do you think that the lack of a budget has anything to do with the lack of a RV? Has the budget been agreed upon as on this morning?] Our committee members say that the Budget has nothing to do with it, it’s just the Iraqi process. Our contractors say that this won’t happen until the rate comes out, and therefore the Budget is released. But the rate and Budget can both be adjusted, if necessary. This morning I talked to people at the bank, and they don’t care what the Budget does; it would be nice, but not essential for the banks to do what they need to do. They are testing the system today and they want it to go by the end of the week.
2-26-2018 Newshound Guru Kaperoni …We need to see the spread (the official rate to the market rate) go down within 2%. When it’s within 2% then they are within compliance. Then it puts them into a position to accept the conditions of article VIII and launch their currency internationally. And more importantly exit the peg that they are on and go to some kind of float. Which would let the world set the exchange rate based on supply and demand…They need to be in compliance for 90 days…They might get an exception from that simply because Iraq is in dire consequences. The recent war. You have a lot of unemployed people…There is a certain amount of expedience needed in Iraq so therefor they may give them an exception. Maybe not and the IMF is going to hold them to a full 90 days of compliance. If they get in compliance in the next week it creates a window in March and the end of May which would be the 90 days where Iraq could accept Article VIII and begin it’s transition to engage with the world financial system. That is the step we want to see occur.