Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions 8-10-17
Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions 8-10-17
8-10-2017 Newshound Guru Kaperoni “Iraq : 2017 Article IV Consultation and Second Review under the Three-Year Stand-by Arrangement…” Quote: “The simplification of documentation requirements implemented by the Central Bank of Iraq led to a decline in the parallel market spread to 6 percent in June 2017.” So we have confirmation from the IMF that the CBI spread (official rate to market rate is at 6%)…well out of compliance of the required 2% in order to move to Article VIII. The CBI has to find a way to get the market rate down to 1207 or so. Currently it is 1260. …the IMF states that Ali al-Allaq and his team have lowered the spread from 11% in December to about 6% currently. Still out of compliance for acceptance into Article VIII, but progress. …the CBI believes that three of the SB’s (i believe that means Structural Benchmarks) can be met very soon. The key one’s seems to be the law in parliament to modify the CBI law and freeing up one of the CBI’s current financial restrictions which they believe is the reason for the current 6% spread. If so, this is more good news. Clearly they are working to reduce the spread and get in compliance as soon as possible.
8-10-2017 Newshound Guru Kaperoni “Steps to strengthen the legal framework of the CBI, remove one remaining exchange restriction and implement AML/CFT measures need to be accelerated. Iraq currently maintains one exchange restriction and one multiple currency practice (see Informational Annex) for which staff is not recommending approval. Removal of these, and implementation of AML/CFT measures, will help to improve the integration of the domestic financial system into the global economy.” This paragraph is telling. It says very clearly… “staff is not recommending approval.” In other words, they have to meet compliance on these. The good news is these are achievable. And meeting them they would then be in Article VIII compliance. Just get it done Iraq! …the IMF has been frustrated with Iraq keeping on target and doing what was agreed. But the good news is that they have reviewed that with them and come to terms to continue such efforts which include…”implementing structural reforms to promote private sector activity.”
8-10-2017 Newshound Guru Kaperoni “The government will gradually remove remaining exchange restrictions and a multiple currency practice (MCP) with a view to eliminating exchange rate distortions. Such a move towards acceptance of the obligations under Article VIII of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement will send a positive signal to the investor community that Iraq is committed to maintain an exchange system that is free of MCPs and restrictions for current international transactions and thus facilitate creation of a favorable business climate…” Article VIII is not that far away. If the CBI can get past these two restrictions they can move to Article VIII. Doing so is exactly what we want to see. The one thing I keep reading throughout the Article IV Consultation is how Iraq has missed numerous target dates. On a positive, as of late, they seem to be catching up or meeting some of the conditions. Looks like by June 2018 they want the CBI to be fully compliant with international standards and reporting accordingly. That is less than a year for the banking system to be fully compliant and hopefully integrated with the worlds banking system.
8-10-2017 Newshound Guru Adam Montana [ I am curious about all of the billions of dinar that has been stolen from Iraq by ISIS and of course the big Maliki? Will this have an effect on the possible RV in the future or do you feel that the money has already been spent and back in the hands of the CBI?] From what I’m told, and making a fairly educated guess, at least half of that “cash” is not a consideration – lost, burned, or buried. The other half is mostly accounted for and is going to be factored into the RV amount.
8-9-2017 Intel Guru Delta Abadi: “Iraq also exited from the UN’s Chapter Seven” PM praises the development of Iraq’s economy and encourages investment and diversification in his weekly press conference.
8-9-2017 Newshound Guru BGG …The correct terminology you’d look to hear from them [Iraq] would be monetary reform [Instead of RV] or you’d look to hear something along the line of deleting the zeros project or something along those lines might be what’s you’d be looking at…it’s going to have a bunch of good news particularly financial good news. However, if you’re looking for some actionable information forecasting this event, I guarantee you will be disappointed. It will just happen. They are not going to telegraph it…I think the cat was out of the bag a long time ago…By the way, it’s kind of interesting that we are seeing this slew of articles lately that are talking about, in big terms, all the success that is coming to Iraq soon.
8-9-2017 Intel Guru RayRen98 …Article 140: we/they are rapidly approaching the two days looking for that to become a reality; that is why the repeal in the budget was there in the first place, to push Article 140 out. They have reportedly met, and we are now awaiting reports from that meeting. So from scuttlebutt, television, mosques, people on the street, we are hearing things are taking place that we were expecting…Contractors are being told the new rate are effective 21. August…It’s real, when we can see this in public. Everything is still looking on or before the 21st…This is what we expect by/before 21. August: Contractors to pay their staff at the new rate. The cards out to the citizens by the 21st so they can be loaded, with a ratio of 1:1. The release of the public international rate to come several days after that (general understanding from what is being communicated)
8-9-2017 Intel Guru Bruce In the United States we have confirmed rates for the Vietnamese Dong on screens front and back at decent screen rates at over 2 dollars. I heard rates today and seen them climb today at several different banks. That is happening. Some people tried to exchange then were told they couldn’t even though the rates were on the screens at the bank. That is how close we are.
8-9-2017 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG Things are moving in a good positive direction for Iraq right now. Very good news for Iraq in the bonds offering. Before Iraq, IMF, UN, WB are going to get around the table and decide what the final number is, there has to be some acceptance, somebody is going to have to buy this currency, make a demand for this currency. Two years ago there was zero demand for this currency. Today there is a demand for this currency. Iraq puts out a bond offering and it gets gobbled up by international investors.
8-9-2017 Newshound Guru G-Lin Article: “Optical cable brings great economic returns to Iraq” Quote: “Director General of International Network Services (SCIS) Ali Mohammed Al-Qasab The project was completed by the state-of-the-art national digital platform” It sounds as though all systems are ready to go to me. Completed.