Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions 2-23-15
Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions 2-23-15
2-23-2015 Newshound Guru Millionday CBI HAS STATED THAT THEY ARE GOING TO STOP THE AUCTIONS FOR FOREIGN REMITTANCE AND THAT WOULD REQUIRE INTERNATIONAL ACCEPTANCE AND ALSO IS PART OF THE MONETARY POLICY PER THE REPORT — THE BUDGET HAS BEEN PRINTED BUT THE REVENUES AND THEY HAVE DIVIDED THE BUDGET INTO TWO CHAPTERS — WE DONT KNOW IF THIS IS BECAUSE OF THE DISTRIBUTION OR FOR ANOTHER REASON UNLESS WE GUESS AND WE ARE NOT GOING TO DO THAT …THEY ARE NOT AND I REPEAT — ARE NOT GOING TO RELEASE EVERYTHING BEFORE IT IS DONE. …WHAT WE KNOW AND CAN SEE…THE BUDGET IS DIVIDED INTO TWO CHAPTERS — AND DISTRIBUTION IS EXPECTED THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK — WE HAVE TOMORROW A MEETING WITH PARLIAMENT AND ABADI…WE HAVE AMENDMENTS BEING DONE TO THE INVESTMENT LAWS PER REQUESTS BEING GIVEN TO THE GOV. I HAVE TO SAY — THIS ALL LOOKS VERY POSITIVE…THEY ARE SHOWING HUGE PROGRESS THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN BEFORE.
2-23-2015 Newshound Guru Millionday [Is there any ink on a constitutional timeframe requirement to open (fund) the budget once it is published in Gazette?] I KNOW THAT 24 HOURS PAST SIGNING WHICH THEY DID NOT FOLLOW SO I BELIEVE CORRECT IS WHAT THEY ARE SHOOTING FOR — THEY MADE IT VERY CLEAR THAT THEY ARE WORKING WITH A TIMELINE IN THE MEETING OF THE THREE PRESIDENTS SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE APPLIED ACCURATELY MORE THAN BY WHAT IS WRITTEN IMO. THEY NEED TO HAVE EVERYTHING PREPARED FOR SUCCESS. THIS PLAN FOR IRAQ IS HUGE — IF THEY ARE NOT PREPARED IN ONE AREA OR THE OTHER — SUCCESS TRUMPS ALL. THE PRINTING OF IT HAS BEEN ANNOUNCED TO ALL CITIZENS AND THE PRESSURE FROM THOSE SAME CITIZENS WILL BE GREAT — THEY NEED JOBS AND ALSO TO SEE IRAQ MOVING FORWARD — THIS GOV SEEMS TO SEE AND KNOW THAT AND ALSO SEEMS TO BE WANTING THE BEST FOR IRAQ…ABADI IS A GREAT PM IMO.
2-23-2015 Newshound Gruu Chattels Indicative rates – 23.02.2015 with no relevant change for us and no auction results since 19-02 -2015.
2-23-2015 Newshound Guru Tlar They still officially have not put out the whole budget. To my knowledge they have not put out the spending side of the budget as of late yesterday. I think this is a very calculated move… March 1st is the taxes and tariffs. …the CBI does not have the tools for the budget at 1166 and…an RV is the only option left for them. They are boxed in so to speak. Logically speaking from what we think we know at this time, they don’t have enough dinars on hand to open their budget without using the LD’s. If they don’t RV they will have three choices only IMO with which to fund this budget. Re-release the counterfeitable notes… Second, quickly order and print more of the uncounterfeitable notes… Third…They fund their budget with USD which would mean restart the auctions continuing as they have done in the past. I will not begin to worry or get nervous unless they publish the spending side of the budget and it is at 1166, and then they disburse the funds at 1166. Until then I am comfortable with what’s going on and the feeling THIS IS IT AND MARCH 1ST IS NOW THE LAST BACKSTOP.
2-23-2015 Newshound Guru Enorrste The following is a quote on floating exchange rate systems: “The debate of making a choice between fixed and floating exchange rate regimes is set forth by the Mundell–Fleming model, which argues that an economy (or the government) cannot simultaneously maintain a fixed exchange rate, free capital movement, and an independent monetary policy. It must choose any two for control and leave the other to market forces.” “The primary argument for a floating exchange rate is that it allows monetary policies to be useful for other purposes. Under fixed rates, monetary policy is committed to the single goal of maintaining exchange rate at its announced level. Yet the exchange rate is only one of the many macroeconomic variables that monetary policy can influence. A system of floating exchange rates leaves monetary policy makers free to pursue other goals such as stabilizing employment or prices.”
2-23-2015 Newshound Guru Enorrste As I see it, the CBI is giving up the fixed exchange rate so that it can seek free capital movement and an independent monetary policy (2 of the three mentioned above). This seems pretty evident to me based on the Mundell-Fleming Model mentioned above. They must give up one. They certainly won’t give up their independence on monetary policy, and they are seeking free movement of capital. Ergo, the fixed rate regime must go. I am on record that it will begin within the next 15 to 45 days. Others…think it may take until August. I am arguing here for a sooner rather than later date for the reasons I have indicated.
2-23-2015 Newshound Guru sczin11 I MAINTAIN IF TARIFFS ARE TO BE IMPLEMENTED NEXT MONDAY, WE SHOULD KNOW SOMETHING BY THEN…THEY CAN NOT CONTINUE TO DELAY, OR THE BUDGET DEFICIT WILL INCREASE. THEY NEED THE REVENUE FROM TARIFFS AS PART OF THEIR ATTEMPT TO BALANCE BUDGET…PART OF THEIR BUDGET DEFICIT REDUCTION PLAN…NEVER HAS IT, THE TARIFFS, BEEN MORE CRITICAL TO THE NEW IRAQ…AND IF THEY DELAY IMPLEMENTATION, THEY CANT MAKE UP FOR LOST DAYS OF REVENUE. I BELIEVE THE MR [MONETARY REFORM] PLAN IS IN MOTION, AND WE NEAR ITS END.
2-22-2015 RUMOR Guru TerryK WELL I DON’T MIND TELLING YOU ALL THAT I’M PRETTY EXCITED…WE HAVE SOME BUDGET PUBLISHED. HEARING THE OTHER PORTIONS COULD BE AS SOON AS TOMORROW. THINGS MOVING FAST IN IRAQ.
2-22-2015 Intel Guru Frank26 [In order to enact or implement the Tariff Law by march 1, they must have a new rate? Correct?] Yes but REMEMBER…As they are doing with Budget…So they can do with March 1st. They are NOT breaking any rules. Just Your heart for taking it slowly. IMO…This is wise.
2-22-2015 Newshound Guru sczin11 IF IN FACT IT IS TRUE, THAT THEY HAVE WITHHELD THE EXPENDITURES PART OF BUDGET FROM THE GAZETTE…CAN ONLY MEAN ONE THING, IMHO, THEY ARE NOT READY TO FUND THE BUDGET…CBI NOT READY..OR GOVT NOT READY…SOMEONE NOT READY…THE GOOD NEWS, IMHO, THEY BETTER GET READY FAST IF THEY WANT TO IMPLEMENT TARIFFS BY NEXT MONDAY! [they have delayed the tarrifs before. Why not now?] THE ONLY EDUCATED ANSWER I CAN GIVE YOU IS THEY APPROVED A BUDGET BASED ON REVENUES FROM TARIFFS…IF THERE ARE NO REVENUES GENERATED BY TARIFFS, YOU CAN KISS THE NEW IRAQ GOOD BYE! JMHO.
2-22-2015 Newshound Guru sczin11 I MAINTAIN NEXT MONDAY IS A BACKWALL FOR VERY TELLING INFO…THE TARIFFS ARE TO BE IMPLEMENTED BY THEN, AND THE NEED TODAY MORE THAN PREVIOUS YEARS, IS THAT THEY HAVE BEEN FIGURED INTO THE BUDGET DEFICIT REDUCTION PLAN, THE TARIFFS THAT IS… TARIFFS AT THE CURRENT RATE TELL ME IRAQ WILL IMPLODE AND RETURN TO TRIBAL LEADERSHIP, JMHO. SO NOW WE SEE WAIT THE NEXT FEW HRS, DAYS BRING…WILL THEY IMPOSE TARIFFS NEXT MONDAY? WILL THEY PUBLISH EXPENDITURES INTO THE GAZETTE? WILL THE CBI PROVIDE THE GO GO JUICE SO MOP AND MOFS CAN IMPLEMENT THE BUDGET?
2-22-2015 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG …the budget published and the CBI auctions being ended on the same day appears to be very good news. We should wait and see what the next few days brings.
2-22-2015 Newshound Guru Enorrste The implementation of tariffs in Iraq almost certainly will require a change in the exchange rate regime at the same time. If the tariffs are implemented without a change in the currency regime, then prices in Iraq will go up overnight, literally. I suspect that the tariffs could be imposed gradually, but I see nothing to indicate that this is what is planned. On the other hand, the …article that came out yesterday about ending the auctions tends to point to a major shift in strategy rather than a piecemeal movement toward openness. That being said, I am of the opinion that the institution of the float will commence either with, or shortly after the imposition of tariffs. Otherwise there will be inflation in Iraq, on the one hand, and an inability of the locals to purchase foreign goods, on the other, due to the rise in the prices of those commodities.
2-22-2015 Newshound Guru Enorrste Finally, since the vast majority of goods in Iraq are imported, this will affect the entire economy, not just a small sector of it. Thus, the change in the exchange rate regime is, really, the only way to avoid massive inflation overnight. If, as I suspect will be the case, the dinar is allowed to float, it will rise in value at least fast enough to offset the inflationary pressure from the tariffs. My own view is that it will rise faster than the pressure from the tariffs and that there will be mild deflation in Iraq. This will, then, with the imposition of the new system by the CBI, allow free access to Iraqi markets, which will bring in more investment quickly. The new influx of money into Iraq from foreigners will offset the deflationary tendency from the imposition of the float. Thus, all will work together at the same time to bring Iraq into “parity” with the world market. I just cannot see how they can do one thing without the other (tariffs versus moving to the float).
dinarguru
