Analyst: three scenarios out of the crisis

27.04.2012

With differing views in the political circles on the visit of the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr to the territory of Kurdistan, ruled out the observers to resolve the political crisis experienced by Iraq in the light of the continued war of words between the leaders of political blocs. After his arrival in Erbil in the first visit carried out by the Kurdistan region, Sadr called for a dialogue involving all parties and political currents in Iraq, announcing a plan of 18 points if all parties agreed. He stressed that he was a guest to Kurdistan after he met with Prime Minister Maliki in the Iranian capital Tehran, for the views and orientations of the Kurdish leaders on the current crisis. and declared al-Sadr that his plan to resolve the crisis emphasizes the need for the interests of Iraq to partisan interests, sectarian and ethnic, and prevent any interference with external affairs Interior, and that Iraq’s oil to the people of Iraq, and the completion of the issue of the security ministries and the quest for the independence of the judiciary, non-politicized, and the cancellation policy of marginalization and exclusion, with the need for toning media escalation that increase the chaos and political tension. and confirms the leadership of the Sadrist movement and the representative block free parliamentary Amir Taher Kanani on the importance of visiting the chest to Erbil in the current stage where many of the crises and problems, especially since the visit aimed at resolving the political crisis and in the interest of the Iraqi people, and expected success of this visit, which comes within the framework of supporting the efforts of a national meeting is expected, which includes its agenda 70 paragraph of the will to find solutions to most problems, but not all. 

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Chairman of the Presidium of the Kurdistan region, Fouad Hussein, confirmed to reporters that the visit of the chest will lead to the expansion and deepening of relations between Kurdistan and the sons of the south and also the stability of the political situation in the country. 
leader of the Iraqi National List MP Hamed Mutlaq sees a convergence of the visions of Iraq and the Kurdistan Alliance and the Sadr movement and even the Some within the National Alliance and the rule of law in the country is going in the direction away from democracy. It is noteworthy that a number of issues still in dispute between Baghdad and Erbil in the forefront of Article 140 of the Constitution on the disputed areas, and oil and gas law, and the Peshmerga has deepened the differences between them in the recent period because of a dispute over oil exports. spokesman for the presidency of the Kurdistan region of Omid Osman confirmed that the province refused to postpone the outstanding differences in more than seven years and is expected to succeed the consultative meeting called by Massoud Barzani, all the political blocs to reach good results. Omid between the preparations underway to hold a consultative meeting, pointing out that most of these parties expressed their willingness to participate in it. Tensions have risen after he accused the President of Kurdistan region Masoud Barzani and Maliki dictatorship autocracy.Barzani had said from Washington that opposes the United States to sell the Iraq war planes of the model F16 as long as Maliki’s ruling, fearing that used aircraft against the Kurds. Barzani In an interview with The Associated Press, published Wednesday, the seriousness of the political crisis experienced by Iraq, stressing the need to resolved before the provincial elections in Kurdistan in September next to that in case of failure to resolve the problems, the baptizing Kurds to the decision to take them out, which he called from under the control of the dictatorship of Baghdad .. to that criticized the leader of the coalition of state law Adnan Schuller told Barzani and his recent hard-line towards the central government , and despite his emphasis on the welcome mass to hold meetings between all the political blocs, and its willingness to dialogue, but he thinks that the solution to the political crisis does not depend on meeting the national expected but on the faith of others to respect the Constitution and a sense of belonging to the nation, pointing out that the positions of Barzani’s recent remarks raise concerns on national unity. It is noteworthy that al-Sadr has a significant influence in the Iraqi government after the support of the arrival of al-Maliki to head the government, and has a powerful bloc in the Iraqi parliament. , AFP news agency quoted an official in Sadr’s movement on Friday that al-Sadr search in the territory of Kurdistan, the issue of non-renewal of the mandate of third Nuri al-Maliki, confirmed at the same time opposing the overthrow the current government. leader of the Sadrist Amir Taher Kanani explained to Radio Free Iraq that the Sadrists and the invitation of al-Sadr seeks to identify the term of the Prime Minister, expressing at the same time for fear of the power of the survival of the security ministries in the hands of one person, what a message is reassuring to partners in the political process in Iraq. For his part, sees the leader of the Iraqi List MP Hamed Mutlaq that there are those who want to thwart the National Congress, but he is optimistic that there will and serious national resolve the crisis, pointing out that the visit of the chest to Erbil positive and confirm the arrival of leaders of political blocs to the conviction and complete enough the need to address the political crisis and stop the consequences which, if continued Studi everyone.

Three scenarios

Several initiatives are put forward to resolve the political crisis in Iraq, but to no avail. The political parties hold high hopes for the National Conference called for by President Jalal Talabani, the Preparatory Committee for the conference have yet to reach agreement on the date of this conference. 
Adnan Mufti, the former head of the Kurdistan Parliament and leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), finds that the Conference National expected can come out with solutions to the political crisis, as long as everyone confirms its commitment to the Iraqi constitution, but it confirms that the atmosphere of mistrust is prevailing in the relations between the political blocs to each. With the political situation that prevailed in Baghdad and the Kurdistan region, rule out the writer and political analyst Kurdish Zarzis Koleezzadeh signs resolve crisis because of the strained relations of all the major political blocs, and believes that the recent rapprochement between the Kurds and the Sadrists and Iraqi forces may lead to more pressure on the National Alliance and the Dawa Party, to find a replacement for Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki until the legislative elections next year. For his part, consistent writer and political analyst Hashimi is confident with Koleezzadh in the political situation of crisis is very, pointing to the presence of internal pressure and external exerted on Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. Interior is that there are attempts to withdraw confidence from the Maliki or pursuit of the Kurdistan Alliance to persuade Sadr to form a new coalition in exchange for the new prime minister of the Sadrist movement, rather than al-Maliki, adding to ask the name of Baha al-Araji, the leader of the Sadrist movement, to fill the position, and the external pressures, they include Iran, which supports the survival of Maliki. According to Hashemi, there are three scenarios in front of politicians, first to overthrow the government and the formation of a political majority will not be able any block, or the President of the Republic to dissolve the current parliament and call early elections and this is rejected by all the political blocs in order not to lose Mganmha, the scenario remains Go to the third national conference and agree on some issues that quickly fall by the political blocs .. contributed to this report, Radio Free Iraq correspondent in Baghdad, Mohammad Karim, and Abdul Hamid Zebari Arbil. 

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