2-6-2013: Iraqi Dinar Guru guesses!!!
2-6-2013 Newshound Guru Adam Montana FACT ONE: the rate on the Dinar in 2003 was roughly .00027. In 2006 the rate was roughly .00068 ($680 per million). Today the rate is roughly .00086 ($860 per million). That’s about a 25% increase in the last few years, right? So if you bought in that period, you are ALREADY WINNING. FACT TWO: The DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) in 2006 was at 10806, today it is around 13880. Those numbers look pretty similar to the Iraqi Dinar’s progress around the same time frame, don’t they? But guess what else happened in that same period… February 2009 the DJIA DROPPED to 7063, which was absolutely devastating to many. Guess what has NOT experienced a huge swing like that, despite the “turbulent and chaotic” situation it’s in? That’s right – the Iraqi Dinar.
2-6-2013 Newshound Guru Adam Montana FACT 3: taking into account those last two sets of numbers, we can say that the Iraqi Dinar is performing just about as good as most 401ks out there… but we also know that most 401ks do NOT have any kind of massive potential. So for all you nay sayers out there – keep on hating, keep on yapping, keep on living in your negative world… I’m holding onto my dinar.
2-6-2013 Newshound Guru Adam Montana [On fox news they were talking about iraqi oil soon entering the market. Which is suppose to lower oil. But better yet i’m thinking the price of dinar increasing. Could you spread a little light on this.] This is yet another reason why I shake my head and laugh at the nay-sayers… not only is Iraqi oil good for us, it’s also good for them, and in turn it is good for Dinar investors! This is truly a situation where we get BOTH pieces of the pie.
2-6-2013 Intel Guru SteveI [Awesome Steve…48 hrs before a change of life weekend] Remember, 48 hours for the completion of the budget not seeing an RV, then whatever time it takes from the individuals to the CBI to post is not for sure. I have feeling they will not drag it out. [When the budget is completed on Thursday, should we be able to see the rate or at least be able to tell that there will be a rate change?] There will be a few steps within the government (departments and individuals) that will move this forward with the finishing authority being the CBI posting it officially. I really do not know the number of hours or days to accomplish this. My guess is that only a few people in Iraq know that answer.
2-6-2013 Newshound Guru Tlar sounds like it is back to Shabibi’s two step plan he proposed a while ago…I think they are much better following the two step program of going to the 1000 to 1 and then removing the zeros followed immediately by a managed or free float. It would create many fewer problems. I think they will come to this same conclusion if that is not already their plan. It would definitely reduce the confusion when they drop the zeros.
2-5-2013 Intel/Newshound Guru Poppy3 [there are some numbers floating around of 138 BILLION DINAR for the budget, last year it was 100 TRILLION DINAR is there a translation problem?] BUDGET HAS BEEN CONFUSING AT BEST BECAUSE DIFFERENT AGENCIES HAVE REPORTED IT TOTALLY DIFFERENTLY SO IT IS STILL IN QUESTION BUT WE SHOULD HEAR FACTS TOMORROW.
2-5-2013 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Article: “Iraqi official ruled out cancellation zeros dinar” These articles are getting clearer and clearer…exactly what we want. raise the value now, delete the 3 zero notes (small denoms) later.
2-5-2013 Intel Guru SteveI After reaching out to our contacts we can confirm that they will vote on the 2013 budget this coming Thursday. Everyone keeps asking about the timing after the budget gets approved. This I am not certain of. I know the process just not the timing between the parties involved. Everything appears to have been completed and moving forward. Ray and I and every contact in the US and in Iraq stand firm on our rate that we have provided in our past posts.
2-5-2013 Intel Guru SteveI …if the restrictions of Chapter VII has not been lifted then how in the world could this be allowed. Many have speculated that this has nothing to do with Chapter VII, but have had this confirmed by several very qualified people they know the sanctions inside out, and it does have to do with VII. If in fact Chapter VII has not been lifted, Iraq would not be able to revalue their currency and pursue entry into the WTO in which by the way they are currently doing. There is no doubt in my mind that the United Nations is monitoring Iraq very closely and would never let them take the next step if it was not appropriate.
2-5-2013 Intel Guru SteveI If you recall, Ray and I have stated that the Chapter VII restrictions placed against Iraq was lifted. I would like to share an article that is proof that it has been done. Article: Dated January 31, 2013 EU amends sanctions regulation on Iraq: The EU Foreign Ministers Council meeting here Thursday announced that it has amended regulation 210/2003 concerning certain specific restrictions on economic and financial relations with Iraq. “This will permit the transfer of frozen funds to the successor arrangements to the Development Fund for Iraq put in place by the government of Iraq under the conditions set out in UN Security Council resolutions 1483 (2003) and 1956 (2010),” The Council also extended the sanctions against persons responsible for the misappropriation of Tunisian state funds, including former Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, by 12 months, i.e. until 31 January 2014.”
2-5-2013 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG I think if all the political pieces fall in place for us correctly that we are 30 – 45 days away from the politics to be in place for this to happen. Do we have to wait this long? No, not even close. If things go well for us in the next few days & the pieces fit together properly, they could be positioned politically for us for this thing to happen. On the Maliki situation, I think Maliki has to be dealt with in some way, shape or form. The CBI, UN and the IMF just will not put up with that kind of dictator. Anything is possible on the RV/float perspective. Deep down, I think it’s going to be an RV. Poppy3 thinks it will come out between $3.22 and $3.86.
2-5-2013 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG There is an extraordinary amount of attention being placed on the budget, the Federal Courts Law and the Amnesty Law. We have a lot to be thankful for right now. The demonstrations and the clerics are behind this movement forward on the budget, the Federal courts law & getting these politicians ready to rock and roll. I don’t think we would be here without the demonstrations. They said they would demonstrate until Maliki resigns. I doubt that Maliki resigns on his own.
2-5-2013 Newshound Guru Doc So which scenario is correct? Actually we could at this point believe either. We would prefer the first for obvious reasons and it makes sense as we’ve discussed in length to RV at a lower initial rate and let the market take it upward as Iraq actually produces more wealth. At $0.69 it would definitely start the ball rolling. We continue with our opinion the goal is to get the dinar to its pre gulf war levels of $3+ but it appears this is out several years as has been documented over and over again. Let just hope the 138 billion number was not a misprint. We report, you decide.
2-5-2013 Newshound Guru Doc Another possibility here is the 138 billion dinar number was a misprint and it should have read 138 trillion. This happens quite often in Iraqi news reports. Doing the same math as previously this suggests the assumed exchange rate was 1448 dinar per USD which we know isn’t right since the current program rate is 1166. However, if 1166 is assumed the budget should be 111 trillion dinar and not 138 trillion dinar. This is possible if the 138 trillion number include budget shortfall of 27 trillion dinar ($23 billion) of which was not reported in the article. We have to remember the 2012 budget included about 15 trillion dinar in shortfall. Unfortunately we will not know until more information is made public. The article also stated the vote would not be until Thursday while several articles said Tuesday. So as usual we have conflicting information.
2-5-2013 Newshound Guru Doc We just came across an article quoting some preliminary 2013 budget numbers. The reports is quoted as the 2013 budget will be 138 billion dinar based on 2.9 million barrels per day export at $90 per barrel. Lets assume the 138 billion dinar number is not a misprint and do the math. First remember oil is sold in USD and not dinar so Iraq is assuming its revenue will be $95.3 billion USD (2.9 billion barrels times 365 days times $90). To convert this to dinar we have to apply the exchange rate they assumed. To convert from $95.3 billion USD to 138 billion dinar they would have had to assume an exchange rate of 1.45 dinar per USD (138/95.3). Another way of saying this is $0.69 USD per dinar which is around the 1 to 1 ratio. It also supports the lower initial rate and float upward strategy which we believe is their goal.
2-5-2013 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG The lower denoms are already printed. They are just not released to the public. This is confirmed. They are only using about half of the denominations, not the full family of currencies just yet. The IQD will be a reserve currency. If you get a couple of countries like the U.S. and China holding it in their treasuries and trading it for oil, it’s a reserve currency not matter what label you put on it. There is not much paper currency within the borders of Iraq, what is there is torn and used up. They are in a squeeze play right now and have to do something about it. They need to get fresh money into the market place. What we are seeing right now is the final struggles in this thing. I don’t see anything horribly bad for us.
2-5-2013 Intel/Newshound Guru Poppy3 MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT IRAQ STABILITY AND IF STABLE ENOUGH TO SATISFY THE UNITED NATIONS AND IMF. LOOK, FINANCIALLY AND RESOURCE GROWTH, AND THE DEATH RATE IN IRAQ IS MUCH BETTER THAN THE USA RIGHT NOW. I THINK THE UN AND IMF WILL APPROVE THEM QUICK IF THEY NULLIFY MALIKI’S POWER OR REMOVE HIM VERY QUICK.