Withdrawal as a “gift” to China and Iran.. Report recommends keeping US forces in Iraq

Withdrawal as a “gift” to China and Iran.. Report recommends keeping US forces in Iraq

2024-11-15 03:43

Shafaq News/ The American Middle East Forum Institute monitored the changes that are currently taking place under the administration of the new President Donald Trump, including the necessity of not withdrawing from Iraq, considering that the new US administration will be able to redirect US foreign policy in the Middle East.

The American report, entitled “If Trump Leaves Iraq, It Will Be a Gift to Iran and China,” explained that Trump’s second term has the opportunity to re-adjust the policy pursued by Joe Biden, which includes his attempt to appease Iran, to replace it with the policy of “maximum pressure”, and to depart from the policy of demonizing Saudi Arabia, in favor of Trump’s partnership with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in addition to departing from the Biden administration’s passive aggression towards Israel, in favor of establishing close relations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

However, the American Institute indicated that “it is unclear whether Trump will reverse Biden’s decision to withdraw from Iraq.”

The report, translated by Shafaq News Agency, considered that if Trump seeks to enhance his strategic superiority, he must learn from the lessons of the withdrawals of Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden, noting that in 2011, Obama ordered US forces to withdraw from Iraq, while Iranian-backed militias and ISIS filled the resulting vacuum, which necessitated the return of US forces to the country, while the human losses resulting from the rise of ISIS were very large.

While Trump initiated an agreement to withdraw from Afghanistan, the Biden administration’s subsequent withdrawal was a disaster, the report continued, recalling in this context the chaos at Kabul International Airport and the attack that killed 13 American soldiers, adding that Washington lost an advanced position from which to demonstrate its strength, gather intelligence, and carry out military operations, while the Taliban continues to conspire with America’s enemies from China to Iran, and the threat of Al-Qaeda and the Khorasan Organization is re-emerging.

Therefore, the American report said that before leaving Iraq, Trump and his advisors must understand the cost of giving up strategic land, adding that the United States must remain in Iraq, and not just in the Kurdistan Region in the near future.

The report considered that critics of the American presence in Iraq could denounce it as a sin in the first place, and that investment in Iraq was not commensurate with the pledge made by President George Bush in his arrogant speeches, but it considered that the United States does not have the luxury of floundering in the present because it is in a state of disagreement with the past.

He explained that “American strategists must make political decisions based on the reality on the ground at the present time.”

The report pointed out the importance of the idea that the United States has forces stationed in Iraq at a low cost and with few casualties, adding that the new Trump administration must ask what the United States will gain by withdrawing.

He pointed out the importance of benefiting from the Afghan lesson, as the United States can, as an alternative, maintain its presence at key points such as the Ain al-Assad air base, and it can also avoid creating a vacuum that China, Russia or Iran can benefit from and fill, adding that the continued American presence provides the ability to achieve strategic and operational results that contribute to strengthening the national interests of the United States.

The report explained that the interests are promoted through the following ideas: First, the American presence would enable the United States to project its power in the region through military, diplomatic, intelligence and media means. This in turn could help it deter Iran’s nuclear ambitions, thwart Turkey’s aggression towards the Kurds, support Israel in its defense against Iran and its agents, and strengthen existing alliances with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States.

Secondly, the American institute said that the American presence could help thwart attempts by Iranian-backed militias and political factions inside Iraq to undermine the Iraqi government and sow discord.

Third, the American report considered that the forward military presence provides logistical and planning centers for launching military operations against enemy forces that may not be deterred, in addition to allowing for the implementation of continuous operations that can limit the opponent’s ability to mobilize its forces.

As for the fourth point, the report said that long-term American cooperation can create influence over the Iraqi government and Iraqi citizens over time, explaining that economic cooperation with Iraq can establish the basis for a permanent alliance with Iraq, which is leaning towards the West in the heart of the Middle East.

While the report concluded by saying that none of these results are guaranteed, it considered that “abandoning Iraq guarantees that the opposite is true,” explaining that leaving Iraq means losing any ability to carry out operations and achieve strategic goals in the region.

The report concluded by saying, “The question is not whether Trump will bring American soldiers home, but whether he will work to strengthen Iran and China at America’s expense.”

shafaq.com