Will al-Sadr return to the Iraqi scene and end the “temporary truce”?

Will al-Sadr return to the Iraqi scene and end the “temporary truce”?

5-27-2023

The movement of the leader of the Sadrist movement , Muqtada al-Sadr, has been increasing in recent days, in what seems to be the first signs of the return of his movement’s activity to the political front in Iraq , especially with the intensification of his statements, whether of a political or ideological nature.

Al-Sadr’s recent movement is at the forefront of ideological and social directives to his followers, following a group’s claim that he is the “awaited Mahdi,” which prompted Al- Sadr to direct his followers to write pledges and disavow that group last month.

Despite the ideological nature, which was dominated by al-Sadr’s recent statements, they were not devoid of passing political messages, whether to his fans or his opponents, specifically the armed militias loyal to Iran, by using once again the phrases “subordination” and “foreign hands”, which are terms he has always used. Al-Sadr in the characterization of groups loyal to Iran.

Ideological war

The return of the Sadrist movement’s activity to the fore again coincided with the emergence of the so-called “owners of the cause” who claimed that Muqtada al-Sadr is the “awaited Mahdi”, and while the leader of the movement declared his innocence with them, it seems that he is now directing his accusations this time against his opponents in stimulating an “ideological war against his movement.” “.

Al-Sadr appeared speaking in a video clip during his visit to his father’s shrine, May 23, in which he said that “the political war has turned into an ideological war.

And while he again denied his connection to the “Ashab al-Qadaa” group, al-Sadr continued, “If you accept me as a reformist leader who is not diligent, infallible, or imam, then you are welcome. Otherwise, this is a separation between you and you until the Day of Judgment.”

Less than 24 hours after his video appearance, al-Sadr said in a tweet on “Twitter,” May 24, “We ask God to liberate Iraq from corruption, dependence, vice, and normalization.”

This is not the first time that al-Sadr has spoken of dependency, as he used it in many of his previous speeches to indirectly refer to armed militias loyal to Iran.

Sadr and Khazali

The escalation of al-Sadr’s rhetoric during the last period indicates the possibility that he will escalate his rhetoric further against the militias that managed to remove him from power last year, while observers believe that despite the escalation of al-Sadr’s rhetoric, he will not risk a quick return and will wait until an appropriate opportunity comes to push him into the political atmosphere from new.

internal mobilization

Many followers of the Sadrist movement believe that the return this time will not be directly from the gate of politics, especially with several signals sent by Al-Sadr that he does not intend to run in the upcoming local elections, which leads to the belief that the movement may return from the gate of any upcoming popular protests.

Despite this, ambiguity still surrounds al-Sadr’s statements, in which there are no direct messages to return to political or protest activity, which leads to the belief that the latter is still monitoring government performance without taking any positions on it.

Political science professor Iyad al-Anbar believes that what is happening in the Sadrist movement’s atmosphere during the last period represents “an internal movement to mobilize the positions of its followers once again and remind them that the specific opposition to them is the coordinating framework and Iran’s allies in Iraq, before embarking on any movement in the political atmosphere again.”

Anbar guest told The Independent Arabia that all these speeches are “a continuation of this movement and an attempt to confirm that the problem is still ongoing with the forces of the coordination framework and its leaders within the authority.”

Perhaps the continuous talk about the Sadrist movement’s attempt to restore its internal atmosphere during the current stage represents “political propaganda promoted by the movement’s opponents,” as Amber expresses, indicating that there are “no indications of a rift in the Sadrist movement’s atmosphere.”

He added that the Sadrist movement still enjoys central control by al-Sadr, ruling out the possibility of “any wings within the movement leaving al-Sadr’s tent because they will lose a lot.”

He pointed out that the strategy of al-Sadr’s opponents within the authority at the current stage is to “attempt to attract figures who hold Sadrist titles within state institutions,” noting that even if those parties succeed in achieving this, they will not be able to influence the mass base or political leaders within the movement.

Not direct talk

On the other hand, media professor and researcher in political affairs, Ghaleb Al-Daami, excludes that Al-Sadr’s recent speech was directed directly at a specific party, noting that “he has always talked about corruption and the corrupt, which is a characteristic of the Iraqi regime since 2003.”

He pointed out that “there is an ideological war being waged against the Sadrist movement, and this was expressed by the leader of the movement during his recent conversations,” pointing out that what is happening represents “clear moves to confront any movement that tries to dismantle the Sadrist movement.”

It seems that al-Sadr’s recent moves “revitalized the social atmosphere supportive of the Sadrist movement,” as he sees al-Dami, who shows that al-Sadr sent, through his recent movement, messages of reassurance to his followers that he is “not far from them.”

He explained that although al-Sadr did not move away from the Iraqi scene, “it is not possible to predict the timing of his return to the air again, and whether it will happen from the political gate or through ideological spaces and social movement.”

Temporary truce

Observers’ opinions differ. While some believe that the signs are general, others believe that al-Sadr is trying to return from the same door he ended up with, which is confronting what he always calls the “insolent militias” in reference to Iran’s loyalists.

Political science professor Haitham al-Hiti says that al-Sadr’s struggle with Iran’s allies “has never ended,” noting that what happened during the last period represents a “temporary truce whose timing cannot be predicted.”

It seems that the introversion of the leaders of the Sadrist movement during the past months motivated his opponents to launch attacks to “dismantle the social space on which he relies,” according to Al-Hiti, who points out that this is what prompted Al-Sadr to “accelerate to return to the social and ideological space at the very least.”

He added that the political silence experienced by the movement’s atmosphere “does not mean the end of its movement,” especially since al-Sadr’s reliance on the social and ideological space is “the main engine for any political movement.”

Al-Hiti believes that al-Sadr “will not risk a quick return from the window of politics, and what he is trying to do during the current period is to restore social spaces for the movement before embarking on any steps of a political nature.”

Perhaps what is most useful for al-Sadr during the coming months, according to al-Hiti, is to “prepare for a national conference in which the leader of the movement will be a part, and that includes all the forces opposing the authority in the country,” noting that “the current project cannot come out of the framework of the mass discontent of the Iraqis, which is What the chest must comprehend.”

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