Warning of the resurgence of ISIS.. Recommendations for America, including a symbolic presence of its forces in Iraq

Warning of the resurgence of ISIS.. Recommendations for America, including a symbolic presence of its forces in Iraq

2024-08-31 03:59

Shafaq News/ The American “Arab Center in Washington” Institute warned against being satisfied with feelings of relief regarding the current situation of ISIS in both Iraq and Syria, while matters are becoming more complicated due to negotiations between the American and Iraqi governments regarding the future of American forces, proposing several recommendations to the American administration, including maintaining an American force in Iraq for the coming years.

The American Institute said that ISIS is exploiting the world’s interest in the current conflicts between Israel and Hamas, and between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah, in order to reconstitute its ranks in Iraq and Syria, at a time when American military leaders are warning that the organization’s attacks will double in 2024, compared to those it launched in 2023.

The report considered that ethnic conflicts between the Kurds in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Arab tribesmen, poor economic conditions, and the support of the Syrian and Turkish governments for elements opposing the SDF, in this new revival of the organization.

The report warned that the thousands of foreign ISIS fighters who have not been recovered and their families in the prisons of the “SDF” forces, in addition to the recent ISIS attacks in the Sultanate of Oman and Iran, should shake the international community’s complacency about the status of the terrorist organization.

After mentioning the rise of ISIS and then the formation of the US-led international coalition, the report said that “it is certain that the defeat of ISIS on the ground was a major victory for the coalition, but the organization did not disappear completely, explaining that despite the killing of thousands of ISIS militants, several thousand fighters escaped the pursuit and merged with some local communities or took refuge in the desert, where the Central Command “CENTCOM” believes that there are about 2,500 ISIS fighters still at large in Syria and Iraq currently, noting that the actual number may be greater than that.

While the report pointed out that CENTCOM statistics indicate that ISIS carried out

153 attacks in Syria and Iraq during the first five months of this year, researcher Charles Lister was quoted as saying: The number of attacks is actually much higher because the organization no longer announces all the attacks it launches.

The report indicated that American officers on the ground are monitoring an increase in ISIS activities and capabilities. One officer was quoted as saying, “What we are seeing is the movement of men, weapons and equipment.”

The report considered that ISIS was adept at exploiting opportunities such as the Syrian civil war and the attack of former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on the Sunnis in the period 2013-2014, adding that ISIS saw an opportunity to intensify its attacks since October 7. In addition, the organization benefited from the growing ethnic conflict between the tribes and the Kurds in the Syrian Democratic Forces, some of which were incited and incited by the Syrian regime, adding that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Lebanese Hezbollah’s assistance to the Sunni tribesmen reveals the extent of the complexity and confusion of the security picture in eastern Syria.

The report added that ISIS sees these Arab-Kurdish clashes as serving its interests, because they distract attention and resources from the campaign waged by the SDF against it, adding at the same time that the Turkish strikes also lead to the weakening of the SDF.

The report warned that “what complicates matters further are the negotiations between the American and Iraqi governments over the future of American forces that came in 2014 to help in the war against ISIS,” adding that although an Iraqi government delegation came to Washington last July to continue negotiations, the announcement of a final date for American forces in mid-August was postponed due to what it called “recent developments,” which likely means the threat of a wider war, following Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

The report added that as ISIS seeks to reconstitute itself, the US military withdrawal from Iraq could jeopardize anti-terrorist operations, adding that US Defense Department officials respected Iraqi sensitivities, but may not be bothered by the suspension of negotiations, given the resumption of attacks by pro-Iranian militias on US forces, in addition to ISIS’s efforts to revive itself.

Recommendations for US Policy

The report stated that there was little discussion in the United States about the resurgence of ISIS in Syria and Iraq and the presence of American forces in both countries, adding that with the US presidential elections approaching, the focus of foreign policy was mainly on the Gaza and Ukraine wars.

The report added that regardless of who wins the US elections, he must pay attention to the threat posed by ISIS, even if the winner is former President Donald Trump, who wanted to withdraw all US troops from Syria in 2018-2019.

The report pointed out that without the presence of the 900 American soldiers in Syria, ISIS is likely to recover more easily because the SDF forces will be in a much weaker position to be able to confront it.

The report added that if the United States withdraws from northeastern Syria, there will be a good chance that Turkey will invade to destroy the Kurdish-led entity, which will be in the interest of ISIS.

But the report called on the SDF forces to seek reconciliation with the Arab tribes in Deir Ezzor, so that they would no longer be seen as dominating areas inhabited by an Arab majority or exploiting their economic resources.

As for Iraq, the report said that although ISIS is not as strong as it is in Syria, a residual American force (smaller than the one currently in Iraq) will likely be needed in the coming years to continue developing the capabilities of the Iraqi army and containing ISIS in both Iraq and Syria.

The report also called on the international community to do a better job in dealing with imprisoned ISIS fighters and their families, not to postpone the case, and to make additional efforts to rebuild cities destroyed by the campaign against ISIS, as poor economic conditions contribute to fueling the recruitment campaign carried out by the organization.

The American report concluded by saying that the last thing the troubled Middle East needs is the full return of ISIS and its control over large parts of the lands and people with its extremely dangerous ideology and methods.

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