US report: Oil is heading to $50 by 2026
US report: Oil is heading to $50 by 2026
8-13-2025
Information/Baghdad…
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the average price of Brent crude oil to fall below $60 per barrel in the spot market during the fourth quarter of 2025, for the first time since 2020.
In its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook released in August, the EIA indicated that the average price of the benchmark crude could fall to around $50 per barrel in 2026, amid ample supplies and slowing demand growth.
Although Brent crude closed above $66 on Tuesday, the report indicated that global oil supply growth is far outpacing demand growth for petroleum products, putting downward pressure on prices.
Steve Nally, acting administrator of the EIA, said the market is experiencing “significant uncertainty,” explaining that past experience has shown sharp price declines when inventories rise at a pace similar to that expected in the coming months.
The EIA expects US oil production to reach a record high of 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025, driven by increased well productivity, but warned that lower prices could lead to a decline in production in 2026.
According to the report, this decline in crude prices will also be reflected in retail gasoline and diesel prices in the United States, which may ease the burden on consumers but threatens the sustainability of production in some regions.
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