US Positioning in Iraq: Baghdad Claims Victory, Iran the Biggest Winner

US Positioning in Iraq: Baghdad Claims Victory, Iran the Biggest Winner

2025-09-06 08:37

Shafaq News – Special Translation
The American Foreign Policy in Focus Center has raised concerns that the US redeployment plan could lead to a “redrawing of Iraq’s political map” without achieving real stability. It suggested that Iran could be the “biggest winner” and that the Kurdistan Region may be inclined to strengthen its independence.

The US report, translated by Shafaq News Agency, stated that Baghdad and Washington put the final touches on a framework for a gradual withdrawal in July 2025, whereby US combat forces would leave central and western Iraq by next December, while counterterrorism operations and training would continue from the Kurdistan Region. This came after continuous pressure from the Iraqi parliament and pro-Iranian factions, and both sides celebrated this settlement .

He noted a familiar pattern: every American intervention promises to be the last, and every withdrawal is supposed to represent a new chapter of self-reliance in Iraq. However, the report contends that sectarian divisions, weak institutions, and competing external influences in Iraq remain as deep as ever.

“What has changed is not the underlying instability, but who benefits from it,” the report continued, noting that “a new US-Iraqi withdrawal agreement promises a ‘complete exit’ from central and western Iraq. On the surface, it appears to be a victory for Iraqi sovereignty and a step toward ending the United States’ endless wars. However, the reality is that it is neither.”

He explained that “US forces will not leave Iraq, but will move to the Kurdistan Region, the only region welcoming Americans, as the withdrawal will take place from the most security-fragile areas.” He added that “the redeployment will protect American lives, but it will alter the balance of power within Iraq in ways that could ultimately strengthen Iran’s influence.”

Noting that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is facing intense pressure from nationalist politicians and Iranian-backed factions to expel foreign forces, the report said that “portraying the withdrawal as a victory for sovereignty helps him project power and score electoral gains.”

According to the report, the political calculations are clear, as al-Sudani’s emergence as a leader who expelled foreign forces enjoys local support, particularly among Shiite circles who view the US presence as an occupation. The report added that “this redeployment helps al-Sudani reconcile the conflicting pressures from Washington and Tehran, but declaring victory and achieving it are two entirely different things.”

The report found that “sovereignty is a formality, not a reality. ISIS remnants still launch more than 100 attacks annually, according to UN reports, while US officials estimate that between 1,500 and 3,000 members of the organization are still active across Iraq and Syria. Meanwhile, armed factions continue to bear arms, are entrenched, and enjoy political influence. For many Iraqis, sovereignty here appears to be a lack of security . ”

After stating that this shift for Washington is not a matter of strategy as much as it is a matter of survival, as US bases in Baghdad and Anbar have been targets of missile and drone attacks, the report explained that by moving its forces to Erbil in Kurdistan, Washington is reducing risks while simultaneously maintaining a foothold.

From Kurdistan, the report indicated, US forces would be able to continue pursuing ISIS and reach Syria.

He continued, “What is happening could be called a reduction in the number of forces, or a redeployment, but it is not a withdrawal; it is a redeployment under fire.”

Returning to Kurdistan, the report indicated that “the region is the silent winner, as hosting US forces enhances Erbil’s security, strengthens its negotiating power over oil revenues and territorial disputes with Baghdad, and enhances the region’s international standing.”

He continued, “Regarding the Kurds, the new arrangements contribute to resolving multiple problems simultaneously. On the one hand, they will gain protection from external threats, and they will also demonstrate to the world that they remain a reliable partner for Western powers.”

In addition, the report noted that Baghdad’s decision to expel US forces will make it difficult for the central government to criticize the Kurdistan Region for hosting these forces, noting that “the regional government will now be able to claim that it is simply filling a vacuum created by Baghdad.”

He points out that “the clear paradox here is that Baghdad demanded the United States’ withdrawal to demonstrate its control, but in doing so, it contributed to empowering the region that is most determined to maintain its semi-autonomy,” explaining that “through the current presence of American forces in Erbil, the Kurdistan Region is gaining a shield against ISIS and the armed factions, and is also gaining political capital that it can leverage in the endless battles over Iraq’s federal issues.”

According to the report, the fate of the areas evacuated by the United States is at risk, with central and southern Iraq more vulnerable than ever. Although ISIS no longer controls cities, its sleeper cells remain besieged. At the same time, the report added, “Iranian-backed factions are filling this vacuum and consolidating their political presence.”

The report notes that “the bitter truth is that the relocation of US forces north not only protects Americans, but also opens the door for Tehran, as the factions it supports have greater freedom to extend their influence in politics, security, and the economy, keeping Tehran’s hand firmly in Iraq.”

Therefore, the report concluded that while Washington portrays this as a “strategic withdrawal,” the practical impact is different, as the safety of American soldiers comes at the expense of influence in central and southern Iraq, and there is also the apparent empowerment of the Kurds, and there is the hidden empowerment of Iran .

The report stated that the United States provides protection for its soldiers, but the long-term repercussions could be another episode of destabilization .

The report concluded by saying, “Baghdad celebrates sovereignty, Washington claims victory, the Kurds are gaining influence, and Iran may be the biggest winner. However, the story does not end with the declaration of victory.”

shafaq.com