The ghost of the 1990s haunts Iraq: economic collapse, stifling sanctions, and a solution: “divorce Iran.”

The ghost of the 1990s haunts Iraq: economic collapse, stifling sanctions, and a solution: “divorce Iran.”

2025-08-28 05:27

Shafaq News – Special Translation
Baghdad’s continued rapprochement with Iran raises fears that Iraq could return to the 1990s. Its continued close ties with Iran represent a “weak point” at a time when the region is undergoing a period of broad geopolitical transformations that place the country’s future at risk.

According to a report by the Middle East Council for International Affairs, translated by Shafaq News Agency, despite the decision of the forces allied with Iran in Iraq to distance themselves from the 12-day war and “remain strangely silent,” these groups still wield significant influence in Baghdad, while simultaneously coexisting with American forces and bases.

While Iraqi leaders have attempted to strike a delicate balance in the face of these pressures on their country, described as Iran’s “lungs,” a “strategic sphere of influence, and a key node in a regional Iranian network of proxies and allies,” Iran’s conflict with Israel is far from resolved and has entered an “unprecedented and dangerous phase, potentially placing Iraq in the eye of the regional storm,” according to the Doha-based report.

Given the US military presence in Iraq and the continued role of Iranian-backed militias within the Popular Mobilization Forces, the report warned that this makes Iraq a “potential flashpoint” should the militias seek to harm Americans.

The report also did not rule out the possibility that the Donald Trump administration, similar to what the Joe Biden administration did before, might resort to targeting the Popular Mobilization Forces, noting that although Israel has not launched a comprehensive campaign inside Iraq, it has launched strikes in the past against targets inside Iraqi territory.

The US report warned that the involvement of the Popular Mobilization Forces in any future confrontation would lead to a broader response from the United States and Israel, particularly as Trump’s policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran expands deeper into Iraq.

While the report noted that the Trump administration shows little tolerance for Iranian influence in Iraq, it recalled the series of decisions and economic pressures Washington has recently imposed on Baghdad, as well as the threat of sanctions against the Iraqi state as a whole, which would have devastating consequences for Iraq and existential implications for the country.

This pressure, according to the American Institute’s report, also has political repercussions, particularly for Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who faces the challenge of managing deteriorating relations with the United States, confronting domestic rivals, and appeasing powerful blocs allied with Iran.

According to the report, al-Sudani, in light of this unstable situation, will struggle to avoid repercussions should the Popular Mobilization Forces seek to undermine American interests or target American personnel. It noted that al-Sudani has been accused of either enabling the rise of groups allied with Iran or turning a blind eye to their growing influence since taking office.

Washington recently learned that al-Sudani, under pressure from Tehran, has resorted to sanctioning the Kurdistan Region while simultaneously empowering the Popular Mobilization Forces economically, according to a report by the Middle East Council for International Affairs.

Deep rifts within the ruling Shiite political class, the uncertainty surrounding the future of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), attempts to oust the group’s leader, Falih al-Fayyadh, and attempts by some factions to merge the PMF to reduce Tehran’s grip on power, along with the perception of other forces allied with Tehran, have become a threat to their authority.

In this regard, the American report stated that “any misstep in managing these tensions could ignite an intra-Shiite conflict, potentially further eroding Iran’s influence and opening loopholes for Washington to regain its influence in Iraq and benefit from Iran’s broader regional decline.”

The report considered that if al-Sudani leans too heavily toward Tehran, this could bring sanctions against him from the United States, including military strikes.

Containing the Popular Mobilization Forces is easier said than done, according to the report, which stressed the need for al-Sudani to provide concrete evidence that he is not an enabler of the group, as former Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi did, receiving praise in Washington for standing up to the militias.

The Middle East Council for International Affairs report concluded, “Iraq is at a crossroads, and continuing to appease the Popular Mobilization Forces risks tying Iraq’s fate to that of Iran.” It argued that greater alignment with the United States opens up opportunities for economic growth, regional integration, and international legitimacy.

The report concluded by saying, “A future Iran poses a threat to Iraq, threatening to return the country to the 1990s, when it was subjected to Western sanctions, struggled to recover from war, and suffered widespread deprivation.”

shafaq.com