Risks and gains at the Washington summit: Will al-Zaidi’s “magic” work with Trump?

Risks and gains at the Washington summit: Will al-Zaidi’s “magic” work with Trump?

2026-07-12

Shafaq News – Special Translation
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, through his visit to Washington, faces a new and difficult reality, as he finds himself forced to deal with an American administration that has moved away from the idea of ​​a “historical commitment” to Baghdad, and now seems more willing to distance itself from the relationship unless it is convinced that it brings direct benefits to the United States.

According to a report by the Atlantic Council , translated by Shafaq News Agency, al-Zaidi, who enjoys strong American support for his administration, is expected to confirm his readiness to disarm Iranian-backed factions and sign deals with energy companies, two key elements in the agenda of President Donald Trump’s administration, which is no longer motivated by a historical commitment to Iraq, but rather seeks to achieve short-term goals that guarantee security and economic gains for the United States.

According to the American report, informed Iraqi sources say that al-Zaidi describes himself as the “Trump of the Middle East,” a businessman with no prior political experience, leading a country facing serious security and economic challenges at home, in the aftermath of the Iran-Iraq War and its disastrous effects on Iraq.

However, the report said that al-Zaidi is trying to meet the demands of the United States and keep Iraq on the path that Washington wants, while he is likely to face a reaction from Iran and from the Iraqi political system that brought him to the premiership.

After the report concluded that the United States faced two options—either remaining a supportive partner for Iraq’s stability or becoming a source of continuous pressure on the Iraqi state—it was deemed necessary for al-Zaydi to convince Trump of his willingness and ability to meet many important American demands, and also to convince him that Iraq was still vital to American interests and deserved the continuation of the partnership with Washington.

According to the report, al-Zaidi is seeking to present his presidency as representing a new, and perhaps more pro-American, direction in Iraqi foreign policy.

But he pointed to the deep religious and cultural power that Iran still wields within Iraq, citing the funeral of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in which al-Zaidi participated alongside a group of ministers and politicians from the Shiite, Sunni, Kurdish and Christian communities in Najaf.

The report argued that this awkward coincidence of events—the approach of al-Zaidi’s visit to the United States coinciding with the funeral ceremonies in Najaf—symbolizes the competition for influence in Iraq, noting the attempts by former prime ministers to balance Iraqi foreign policy between an integrated relationship with Iran and continued strategic cooperation with the United States.

The report continued that undermining Iran’s grip is the primary motivation for US policy in Iraq, which means that al-Zaidi is now faced with difficult choices.

According to the report, al-Zaidi faces a “high-stakes, high-reward meeting” with Trump, noting that the US president “has baffled a number of other world leaders.”

He added that this meeting “may be more about form than substance, as al-Zaidi needs to gain Trump’s trust and convince him that the United States is throwing its weight behind the right leader.”

The report noted that al-Zaydi’s predecessor, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, largely lost American support towards the end of his term in office, after Iraq descended into violence with the start of the Iran-Iraq War.

He pointed out that undermining Iranian influence in Iraq is at the heart of the Trump administration’s objectives, which have shown its determination and willingness to use pressure tactics to achieve its goals, including freezing dollar shipments to Iraq and halting security cooperation.

The report addressed some early successes that al-Zaidi might point to, including the pledge by some factions to hand over their weapons and his commitment to fighting corruption. However, it considered that even with a combination of American support and pressure, al-Zaidi would face serious obstacles, similar to what al-Sudani faced before him, from the same political system that brought him to power, at a time when Iran does not appear to be willing to give up its influence voluntarily.

Therefore, the report concluded that al-Zaydi must convince the Trump administration that the US relationship with Iraq serves US interests, noting that successive Iraqi governments have taken the partnership with the United States for granted, based on the assumption that the history of the US invasion and the long-term bilateral commitment to Iraq will continue.

However, the report clarified that “al-Zaidi faces a new and difficult reality in Washington, where there is an administration prepared to walk away from this relationship if it is not convinced that it is delivering benefits to the United States,” adding that al-Zaidi must demonstrate continued progress on the US administration’s key priorities in order to maintain US engagement and avoid the considerable pressure that the Trump administration is preparing to exert.

A report discussed a prevailing narrative in some circles in Washington, namely that the United States had already lost Iraq to Iran, and that continued American involvement was no longer worthwhile.

The Atlantic Council’s American Institute concluded in its report that despite Iran’s deep and ongoing influence, many Iraqis realize that the future they seek is linked to a Western axis.

The report concluded by saying that continued US engagement, combining pressure and incentives, could achieve real progress in strengthening the state and economy in Iraq, as well as undermining Iranian influence, in a way that serves the national interests of both the United States and Iraq.

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