ISIS, Iran and the Middle East: Different American interpretations of the withdrawal from Iraq

ISIS, Iran and the Middle East: Different American interpretations of the withdrawal from Iraq

2024-09-29 07:13

Shafaq News/ The American interpretations of the decision of the Baghdad and Washington governments to end the mission of the international coalition and schedule the withdrawal of its forces from Iraq varied, between those who see it as a natural decision after achieving the defeat against ISIS, and those who call for the necessity of a “clear separation” of the American military forces from Iraq, a task that will fall on the shoulders of the new president in the White House.

The American website “Media Line” stated in a report translated by Shafaq News Agency that the Iraqi-American decision comes amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, where wars involving Israel, the Lebanese Hezbollah, and the Hamas movement in Gaza increase the risks of a wider regional war.

The report pointed out that US military bases in Iraq have become a frequent target for attacks by Iranian-backed militias, which increased after the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas last year.

Withdrawal plan

The report indicated that in the envisioned second phase of the withdrawal plan, the United States will maintain a limited presence of its forces, in order to support efforts to combat ISIS in Syria until 2026, although the future number of American soldiers in Iraq remains unclear.

In this context, the American magazine “Time” considered that despite the insistence of American officials that Washington will not withdraw all of its 2,500 troops from Iraq, these officials are reluctant to use the term “withdrawal”, even if the United States will reduce its deployment over the next two years.

Time expects that this announcement about the fate and number of American forces will calm the national security establishment figures, representatives, commentators and former generals who are always worried about a complete American withdrawal and are quick to say that such a step represents a danger to American interests.

However, the American magazine considered that such concerns do not hold up when examined, and stressed that “what the United States needs is a clear separation, not a transitional phase based on conditions that could lead to extending its mission for years to come,” noting that “the Biden administration refused to provide details about the number of soldiers who will remain in Iraq.”

The report pointed out that the United States had already achieved its goals in combating ISIS, after the administration of former President Barack Obama formed a large coalition and began attacking ISIS sites in September 2014. The American mission was clear: to eliminate the ISIS regional “caliphate,” which at its peak had reached an area the size of Britain, with about eight million people, and was generating an estimated $1 million a day from oil sales on the black market, while the organization had tens of thousands of fighters from more than 80 countries.

ISIS is back

The American magazine downplayed the estimates that the withdrawal and absence of American forces would affect the capabilities and strength of other actors in the region, noting that the Iraqi government, the Turks, the Russians, and even the regime of President Bashar al-Assad have a self-interest in ensuring that the ISIS “caliphate” does not return, in addition to the fact that the military capabilities of these parties are now better than they were when the mission to fight ISIS began a decade ago.

According to the report, the Iraqi military has become more adept than ever at planning, organizing, and executing independent operations against terrorist strongholds along the country’s perimeter, and the same can be said of the Peshmerga, which, according to the U.S. Department of Defense’s inspector general for the counter-ISIS mission, has improved mission planning and counterinsurgency operations in its area of ​​responsibility.

In addition, the report said that the US intelligence community will remain focused heavily on ISIS, and will not hesitate to take action if an imminent plot is discovered or a prominent terrorist emerges, adding that the United States has proven that it is capable of doing both without a ground presence.

He mentioned, for example, that in August 2022, a year after the United States withdrew from Afghanistan, it was able to kill Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a drone strike.

While the magazine wondered whether ISIS was completely disabled, it said that the formulation of such a question is wrong, and that the correct question is whether the interests of the United States are served by remaining in Iraq forever, especially when this leads to it facing more security problems, as the American presence represents a “gift” to Iran and its allied militias.

He pointed out that American forces have been targeted more than 200 times since October 2023, for reasons most notably the United States’ support for Israel.

The magazine concluded by saying that “the United States is taking unnecessary risks to achieve a mission that was accomplished years ago.”

The pending question

“The Biden administration has paved the way for a more normal relationship with the Iraqi government,” she continued. “The question that remains to be determined is whether the next US president will finally realise that the US has achieved all it can in Iraq, and if so, when?”

For its part, the American newspaper “Los Angeles Times” said that American officials say that the American military mission will eventually turn into a bilateral security relationship, but they did not indicate what this might mean for the many American soldiers who will remain in Iraq in the future.

It is worth noting that the new agreement is the third time in the past two decades that the United States has announced a formal shift in the role of its armed forces in this country.

The American newspaper reported, quoting Iraqi officials, that after the November elections, American forces will begin to leave Al-Assad Air Base and Baghdad International Airport, while those forces will be transferred to Harir Air Base in Erbil.

The newspaper pointed out that critics warn that ISIS attacks have escalated this year in Syria across the desert border from Iraq.

Charles Lister, an analyst at the American Middle East Institute, was quoted as saying that the withdrawal from Iraq is “a really important cause for concern.”

According to Lister, the withdrawal from Iraq is not because ISIS has disappeared, explaining that “it is because there is a large percentage of the policy-making community in Baghdad that does not want the presence of American forces on Iraqi soil.”

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