Iraqi gas is capable of changing the global energy map

Iraqi gas is capable of changing the global energy map

1-4-2024

Iraq has huge gas reserves, but has so far failed to develop them properly, which has led to three major problems for it and for global energy markets. Financial journalist Simon Watkins believes in a report published by the Oil Price website that the first problem lies in leaving Iraq dependent on neighboring Iran for up to 40 percent of its energy needs, which are imported through gas and electricity supplies, and this has exacerbated the already tight control. Which Tehran practices on Baghdad through its networks of political, economic and military agents.

Second, these imports from Iran have remained a major source of friction between Iraq and the United States for years, hindering many investments in the country. Third, Iraq often suffers from catastrophic budget crises, despite its enormous and untapped resources of oil and gas. However, Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul-Ghani said last week that several major projects recently awarded to foreign companies will add approximately 3 billion cubic feet per day – about 517 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day – to Iraqi gas production and will open the way for the implementation of projects. New too.

One of these major gas projects is part of a four-pronged project worth $27 billion that was originally agreed upon between the French company Total Energy and the Iraqi government in 2021, but was long delayed due to attempts by the Iraqis to change the terms of what was agreed upon.

The first part of the deal includes an initial investment of about $10 billion focusing on the “Integrated Gas Growth Project.” The primary goal is to capture the gas associated with oil field development, and instead of burning it as was largely the case before, it is instead used to meet domestic energy needs and later for export to generate funds for the budget.

Despite failures to develop the gas sector, Iraq’s untapped reserves hold the potential for significant global impact

These and other efforts related to the idea of ​​using or liquefying previously flared associated gas appear to have been encouraged by the last in a long line of Iraqi prime ministers, Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani, who recently commented that Iraq would halt gas imports from Iran.

Former Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi went to Washington in May 2020 to ask for more money to support the corruption-ridden economy than ever before and for the longest concession ever granted (120 days) to retain imports of gas and electricity from Iran.

The United States granted financing and exemption, but once the money was deposited in the banks and Al-Kadhimi returned safely to its lands, Iraq signed a two-year contract, the longest ever, with Iran to continue importing gas and electricity from Iran. At that point, the United States understandably lost its nerve and imposed tough new sanctions on 20 entities in Iraq complicit in numerous sanctions-violating activities.

Last July, Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani announced that Iraq intends to pay with its oil supplies in exchange for the gas and electricity it imports from Iran. He added that Iraq had no choice but to take this geopolitically insensitive measure because US sanctions on Iran made it difficult for Iraq to make payments through traditional banking methods.

With the other three elements of the four-pronged deal equally subject to the whims of the ever-changing Iraqi government, the $27 billion deal appears risky. The same applies to other major gas deals announced by Iraq. These deals were announced several times before, and very little happened after that.

Around the same time in 2017, when Iraq pledged to adhere to the UN and World Bank “Zero Routine Flaring” initiative, which aims to end by 2030 the flaring of routine gas produced during oil exploration, the Ministry of Oil also announced that it had signed an agreement with the American engineering company Giant Baker Hughes to obtain gas associated with oil from the Gharraf and Nasiriyah oil fields. At that time, Iraq flared the second largest amount of gas in the world (after Russia) – about 17.37 billion cubic metres.

These plans have since been re-announced at various points, although some participants have changed at different stages. The first phase of the Nasiriyah plan (a similar plan was developed for Al-Graf) included an advanced, modular gas processing solution being deployed in the integrated natural gas complex in Nasiriyah to pressure dry flare gas to generate more than 100 million standard cubic feet of gas per cubic meter of gas.

The second phase would have included expanding the Nasiriyah plant into a complete liquefied natural gas facility capable of recovering 200 million cubic feet per day of dry gas, liquefied gas, and condensates. All of this production will go to the local power generation sector, as Baker Hughes previously stated that processing the flared gas from these two fields will allow 400 megawatts of energy to be provided to the Iraqi grid.

Additional exploration operations are likely to add to the number of reserves during the coming decades, especially in light of the high success rate of prospects drilled in Iraq.

If Baker Hughes had been allowed to continue with the project, it would have taken about 30 months to implement. It would then have been possible to implement similar development plans for other major gas capture sites, which in 2018 and 2020 included Halfaya (300 million cubic feet per day) and Ratawi (400 million cubic feet per day). It was then possible to develop synergies with the only major gas project that has achieved significant progress in Iraq over the years, the Basra Gas Company project managed by Shell. Little progress has been made in any of these projects.

Perhaps the most extraordinary element of Iraq’s long-term farce in developing the gas sector is that Iraq already has the potential to become a huge global player in this field. The total proven natural gas reserves in Iraq are about 131 trillion cubic feet, which is the twelfth largest in the world, and there may be much more than that, as the rate of exploration for gas reserves has not matched the rate of oil exploration.

In addition, the additional gas resources it may have associated with further oil development may also be enormous. Even using the most conservative numbers, Iraq produced only about 15-20 percent of its ultimately recoverable oil resources in 2017 when it signed up for the “Zero Routine Flaring” initiative, compared to 23 percent for the Middle East as a whole, according to the IEA. International. This number for Iraq has not changed significantly since then.

It is very likely that additional exploration operations will add significantly to the number of proven reserves over the coming decades, especially in light of the high success rate of prospects drilled in Iraq. For example, less than half of the potential hydrocarbon-bearing geological sites identified by geophysical methods have been drilled in Iraq, but oil has been found in 65 percent of them. The International Energy Agency estimates the level of ultimately recoverable crude oil resources at approximately 246 billion barrels (crude and NGLs), of which associated gas is likely to feature heavily.

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