Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions 10-25-16
Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions 10-25-16
10-25-2016 Newshound Guru BGG [Do you think we actually need all of these laws in place before we can see a rate change?] I do…just a couple of the more critical ones…Gen Amnesty was one, banking and investment are important to the WB/IMF…obviously. However, they are not much of a “hold-up” – they are on a “fast-track” to getting done. GO RV!!
10-25-2016 Newshound Guru mike Article: “The budget bill includes 100 billion dinars Total investment and operational expenses” I’m looking forward to seeing Parliament’s response to this budget, reducing staff by 25% and forcing a 5% paycut for all government employees so they can pay the PMU is going to be a tough pill to swallow. In the end, they need to get this passed, pronto. The delays for the second installment of loan money from the IMF is directly related to the 2017 budget, they kept telling Abadi to go back to the drawing board and trim more fat off the budget, and it looks like he’s trying. The problem is…Parliament, they use words like “fair” and “need” and “astonishment” instead of “we’re broke, this is the best we got.”
10-25-2016 Newshound Guru rcookie Article: “Government bonds and safe way to save” Quote: “Imad emirate is a financial reform imperative to resettle capital and attracting private investment, especially investment indirect, such as stocks and bonds, and require the reform process in this aspect a number of basic steps, including the development of the stock market in Iraq to their importance in activating the role of the private sector in the process of development.” ONCE AGAIN…HUGE TALK OF FINANCIAL REFORM DRIVING RESETTLING OF CAPITAL AND ATTRACTING FOREIGN PRIVATE INVESTMENT…ESPECIALLY INDIRECT INVESTMENT LIKE STOCKS AND BONDS…AND IMPORTANCE OF LAUNCHING STOCK MARKET ROLE AS PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT DRIVER…THAT ARTICLE IS HUGE…HUGE…HUGE…AND TIES IN MUCH OF THE RECENT ACTION AND NEWS WE HAVE BEEN READING ABOUT!
10-25-2016 Intel Guru Rayren98 Article over the weekend came out: “Central bank officials confirmed yesterday that the Iraqi dinar . . . coinciding with the liberation of the City of Mosul . . . News of the central bank decided to raise the value of the Iraqi dollar against the USD . . .in the coming view days the Iraqi dinar will have a considerable rise against the US dollar.” Is this finally it? That’s what we wait to find out. The article said, “changing the value and bringing it up against the USD in the coming few days.” And a few days from Sunday, could be tomorrow [Tuesday], Wednesday. We got information over the weekend the last bank (in Mosul) needed to be linked into the system…between Sat. night and today…the bank in Mosul connected to the US system. Citizens being regularly updated on the status of Mosul. Budget was sent to Parliament on Friday. We knew when it hit Parliament floor and when it was going to be voted on. Reporting now that the 2017 budget is approved and published. Now we are awaiting some detail information. Remains to be seen the new rate reflected in this budget.
10-24-2016 Newshound Guru Islandg1211 Article: “CBI ANNOUNCES RAISING THE VALUE OF THE DINAR” Good to see a new RV Article! It’s been awhile – not since ISIS, has the CBI made any serious announcement of raising the value of the Dinar. The IMF’s two LOIs, both last December and June, mapped out steps for the CBI and the Minister of Finance to take in order to receive the loans. In the December LOI, the IMF projected that Iraq would join the international world “by mid-year.” That was curious because the plan to rid Iraq of ISIS was also being formulated on a timeline with Mosul scheduled for liberation Oct-Winter. The plan to get rid of ISIS has to include the Monetary Reform in order to finally win the peace. Maybe the IMF’s plan was just get Iraq ready to RV by mid-year when most of ISIS outside of Mosul was under control at this point, it seems like they have to wait to gain control over the Mosul.
10-24-2016 Newshound Guru Islandg1211 In any event, prior to the RV, we can expect to see some “peppering” of articles going over the plan to delete the zeroes and raise the value. In the past when Shabibi prepared to RV, he did work the press to educate the people on his plan. In this article, it’s stating that the RV would happen once Mosul was freed from ISIS. Liberating Mosul includes a very complex political agreement with the Kurds and most likely, needs to include the HCL law being passed. I was very encouraged when in August an Article 140 territory dispute had a negotiated agreement to split the oil fields. I believe an agreement for Mosul’s oil has also been reached but not announced.
10-25-2016 Newshound Guru Islandg1211 I’ve always been of the opinion that the IMF prefers to RV on a Thursday in the Spring, so I’m again looking at the last Thursday in March, March 30 – April 27, 2017, which is after Mosul would be liberated. THE IMF HISTORICALLY HAS RV’d IN APRIL. There’s still a lot to get done politically. Abadi has to get his technocrat Ministers appointed. This was scheduled to be done last Spring. The GOI still hasn’t passed important laws. The LOI also states that CBI needs to cut out the use of multiple currencies (USD) by “the end of the year.” The Kurds have to actually vote in the HCL. Looking at what still needs to get done, Spring 2017 seems realistic, and between now and the RV, we should expect more RV articles appearing. IMO, the CBI can RV with the BIS and IMF’s approval at any date and rate.
10-24-2016 Newshound Guru My Ladies Article: “ENTRAL BANK TO RAISE THE PRICE OF THE DINAR AGAINST THE DOLLAR!!” YES AND IT WILL RAISE SIGNIFICANTLY…RIGHT NOW THE BLACK MARKET IS AT 1300+ SO THEY WILL LIFT THE RATE TO CLOSE THAT GAP BUT IT WILL STILL NEVER SEE THE POSITIVE SIDE OF A DOLLAR…YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND THERE IS A GAP BETWEEN THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE OF THE DINAR WHICH IS 1182 AND THE BLACK MARKET RATE WHICH IS 1300+ DINAR TO THE DOLLAR. NOW IF IRAQ DOES WHAT IT NEEDS TO DO TO CLOSE THAT GAP THAT WILL BE RAISING THE “PRICE” DINAR AGAINST THE DOLLAR WHICH WILL MAKE THE OFFICIAL RATE CLOSER TO THE 1300 BLACK MARKET RATE. THAT MEANS THE EXCHANGE RATE IS GOING IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF ANYONE HOPING TO MAKE A PROFIT.
10-24-2016 Newshound Guru BGG [Guru] Kaperoni – Said many times that the dinar will float. The CBI monetary policy must change if they want foreign investors. I agree with the idea that the CBI’s monetary policy must change… however, I am not convinced a “pure float” is anywhere close to what they have planned. In fact, several key documents plainly state otherwise.
10-24-2016 Newshound Guru BGG […they could go to 500 dinar per dollar and float from there couldn’t they. That would more than double the value…] They COULD do a lot of things… but that is not the characterization they’ve laid out in their official documents. Over and over…IMHO – they’ve told us what they intend to do. …it is widely recognized the IQD is “grossly under-valued”… [.86 to 1.18?] I like where your head’s at!!
10-24-2016 Newshound Guru mike Article quotes: “…the parliamentary finance committee revealed on Monday, projected in the budget of 2017, which is estimated B79 billion dinars revenue, in addition to the total expenditure of 100 billion dinars.” “stressing at the same time, “deducting a percentage of 4.8% of all employees’ salaries and retired, to support the popular crowd and the displaced.” I’m looking forward to seeing Parliament’s response to this budget, reducing staff by 25% and forcing a 5% paycut for all government employees so they can pay the PMU is going to be a tough pill to swallow. In the end, they need to get this passed, pronto.
10-24-2016 Intel Guru AdminBill Article quotes: “A source in the central bank said yesterday that the recent lifting of the price of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar to coincide with the victories of our security forces and is moving towards liberalization City Almousel.oukal…” “…the Iraqi dinar will see over the next few days , a significant rise in price against the US dollar.” I KNOW THERE HAS BEEN SOME VERY INTERESTING NEWS ARTICLES FROM IRAQ TODAY BUT PLEASE BEAR IN MIND THAT WE MUST STAY FOCUSED ON WHAT IS REAL. I HAVE TALKED TO A FEW PEOPLE I TRUST THAT HAVE TOLD ME THEY ARE HEARING THEY ARE NEARING THE END. …IF THEY GO WE WILL KNOW IT.